National fish, wildlife and plants climate adaptation strategy

              National Fish, Wildlife and Plants
Climate Adaptation Strategy
Recommended citationNational Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Partnership.
2012.
National Fish, Wildlife and Plants
Climate Adaptation Strategy.Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies,
Council on Environmental Quality, Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission, National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
Washington, DC.
Cover credits: Children in woods, Steve
Hillebrand. Horse-eye jacks, National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration. Painted Hills,
Jane Pellicciotto. Pelican, George Andrejko/
Arizona Game and Fish Department.
Design and layout: Jane Pellicciotto/
Allegro DesignThis publication is printed on FSC-certified
paper in the United States.
ISBN: 978-1-938956-00-3
DOI : 10.3996/082012-FWSReport-1
wildlifeadaptationstrategy.gov
about this report
This report was produced by an inter-
governmental working group of federal, state,
and tribal agency representatives at the
request of the U.S. Government. Therefore,
the report is in the public domain. Some
materials used in the report are copyrighted
and permission was granted to the U.S.
Government for their publication in this
report. For subsequent uses that include
such copyrighted materials, permission
for reproduction must be sought from the
copyright holder. In all cases, credit must be
given for copyrighted materials.
For more information, contact:Mark Shaff er
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
mark_shaffer@fws.gov
703-358-2603
Roger Griff is
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
roger.b.griffis@noaa.gov
301-427-8134
ARPITA ITA CHOUDHURY
Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies
achoudhury@fishwildlife.org
202-624-5853
DI SCLAIME R
This Strategy is not a final agency action
subject to judicial review, nor is it considered a
rule. Nothing in this report is meant to affect
the substantive or legal rights of third parties
or bind government agencies.
Photo cr editscover: Children in woods , Steve Hill ebr and.
Horse-eye jac ks, National Oc eanic and Atmosph eric
Administration. Painted Hills, Jane Pell icc iotto.
Pelican , Georg e Andrejko/Ar izona Game and
Fish Department
acknowl edgement
This Strategy was produced by an
intergovernmental working group of federal,
state and tribal agency professionals whose
expertise, knowledge and dedication brought
the report to completion (see Appendix E). The
Strategy would not have been possible without
the research, monitoring and assessment
activities of the nation’s scientific community
on natural resource conservation in a changing
climate. The Strategy also benefited greatly
from input from a variety of non-governmental
organizations and the public.National Fish, Wildlife and Plants
Climate Adaptation Strategy
authors
National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate
Adaptation Partnershipii | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
Inside
Preface 1
Executive Summary 2
CH.1 About the 7
Strategy
1.1 A Broad National Effort 7
1.2 Origins and Development 8
1.3 The Case for Action 9
1.3.1 The Climate is Changing 9
1.3.2 Impacts to Fish, Wildlife, 11
and Plants
1.3.3 Ecosystem Services 12
1.3.4 Adaptation to Climate Change 14
1.4 Purpose, Vision, and 17
Guiding Principles
1.5 Risk and Uncertainty 18
CH.2 Impacts of 19
Climate Change &
Ocean Acidification
2.1 GHG-induced Changes 19
to the Climate and Ocean
2.2 Existing Stressors on Fish, 21
Wildlife, and Plants
2.3 Climate Change Impacts 25
on Fish, Wildlife, and Plants
2.3.1 Forest Ecosystems 31
2.3.2 Shrubland Ecosystems 33
2.3.3 Grassland Ecosystems 33
2.3.4 Desert Ecosystems 34
2.3.5 Arctic Tundra Ecosystems 36
2.3.6 Inland Water Ecosystems 39
2.3.7 Coastal Ecosystems 42
2.3.8 Marine Ecosystems 47
2.4 Impacts on Ecosystem 51
ServicesThe purpose of the National Fish, Wildlife and
Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy is to inspire
and enable natural resource administrators, elected officials, and other decision makers
to take action to adapt to a changing climate.
Adaptation actions are vital to sustaining the nation’s ecosystems and natural resources —
as well as the human uses and values that
the natural world provides.g
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Resources 93
Literature Cited 93
Appendix A: 103
Supporting MaterialsEcosystem-Specific Background Papers 103
Related Resources, Reports, and 103
Materials
Appendix B: Glossary 105
Appendix C: Acronyms 108
Appendix D: Scientific Names 109
Appendix E: Team Members 110
CH.3 Climate 53
Adaptation Goals,
Strategies & Actions
GOAL 1: Conserve habitat to support 55
healthy fish, wildlife, and plant
populations and ecosystem functions
in a changing climate.
GOAL 2: Manage species and habitats 60
to protect ecosystem functions and
provide sustainable cultural, subsistence,
recreational, and commercial use in
a changing climate.
GOAL 3: Enhance capacity for effective 63
management in a changing climate.
GOAL 4: Support adaptive 67
management in a changing climate
through integrated observation and
monitoring and use of decision
support tools.
GOAL 5: Increase knowledge and 71
information on impacts and responses
of fish, wildlife, and plants to a changing
climate.
GOAL 6: Increase awareness and 74
motivate action to safeguard fish,
wildlife, and plants in a changing climate.
GOAL 7: Reduce non-climate stressors 76
to help fish, wildlife, plants, and
ecosystems adapt to a changing climate.
CH.4 Opportunities 79
for Multiple Sectors
4.1 Agriculture 81
4.2 Energy 83
4.3 Housing and Urbanization 84
4.4 Transportation and 86
Infrastructure
4.5 Water Resources 86
CH.5 Integration & 88
Implementation
5.1 Strategy Integration 88
5.2 Strategy Implementation 90
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vation6 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
Our climate is changing, and these changes
are already impacting the nation’svaluable
natural resources and the people, communities,
and economies that depend on them.
PrefacePreface | 1
that can be taken, or at least initiated,
over the next !ve to ten years in the
context of the changes to our climate that
are already occurring, and those that are
projected by the end of the century. It is
designed to be a key part of the nation’s
larger response to a changing climate,
and to guide responsible actions by
natural resource managers, conservation
partners, and other decision makers at
all levels. "e Strategy was produced by
federal, state, and tribal representatives
and has been coordinated with a variety
of other climate change adaptation e#orts
at national, state, and tribal levels.
The overarching goal of the
Strategy is a simple one:
to inspire, enable, and increase
meaningful action that helps
safeguard the nation’s natural
resources in a changing climate.
"e overarching goal of the Strategy
is a simple one: to inspire, enable, and
increase meaningful action that helps
safeguard the nation’s natural resources
in a changing climate. Admittedly, the
task ahead is a daunting one, especially if
the world fails to make serious e#orts to
reduce emissions of GHGs. But we can
make a di#erence. To do that, we must
begin now to prepare for a future unlike
the recent past.
The observed changes in climate have
been attributed to the increasing
levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other
greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmo-sphere, which have set in motion a series
of changes in the planet’s climate system.
Far greater changes are inevitable not
only because emissions will continue, but
also because CO2 stays in the atmosphere
for a long time. Even if further GHG
emissions were halted today, alterations
already underway in the Earth’s climate
will last for hundreds or thousands of
years. If GHG emissions continue, as is
currently more likely, the planet’s average
temperature is projected to rise by 2.0
to 11.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of
the century, with accompanying major
changes in extreme weather events,
variable and/or inconsistent weather
patterns, sea level rise, and changing
ocean conditions including increased
acidi!cation.
Safeguarding our valuable living
resources in a changing climate for
current and future generations is a
serious and urgent problem. Addressing
the problem requires action now to
understand current impacts, assess future
risks, and prepare for and adapt to a
changing climate. "is National Fish,
Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation
Strategy (herea$er Strategy) is a call to
action–a framework for e#ective steps
These impacts are expected to increase with continued changes in the
planet’s climate system, putting many of the nation’s valuable natural resources
at risk. Action is needed now to reduce these impacts (including reducing the
drivers of climate change) and help sustain the natural resources and services
the nation depends on.
Because the development of this adapta-tion
Strategy will only be worthwhile if it
leads to meaningful action, it is directly
aimed at several key groups: natural
resource management agency leaders and
sta# (federal, state, and tribal); elected
o%cials in both executive and legisla-tive government branches (federal, state,
local, and tribal); leaders in industries
that depend on and can impact natural
resources, such as agriculture, forestry,
and recreation; and private landowners,
whose role is crucial because they own
more than 70 percent of the land in the
United States.
"e Strategy should also be useful for
decision makers in sectors that a#ect
natural resources (such as agriculture,
energy, urban development, transporta-tion, and water resource management),
for conservation partners, for educators,
and for the interested public, whose input
and decisions will have major impacts on
safeguarding the nation’s living resources
in the face of climate change. "e Strategy
also should be useful to those in other
countries dealing with these same issues
and those dealing with the international
dimensions of climate adaptation.
USFWS
2 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
Executive Summary
Fish, wildlife, and plants provide jobs, food, clean
water, storm protection, health benefits and many other important ecosystem services that support people, communities and economies across the nation every day. The observed changes in the climate are already impacting these valuable resources and systems. These impacts are expected to increase with continued changes in the planet’s climate system.
Action is needed now to help safeguard these natural resources and the communities and economies that depend on them.
Measurements unequivocally show
that average surface air tempera-tures in the United States have risen two
degrees Fahrenheit (°F) over the last
50 years. The science strongly supports
the finding that the underlying cause
of these changes is the accumulation of
heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2) and
other greenhouse gases (GHG) in the
atmosphere. If GHG emissions continue
unabated, the planet’s average tempera-ture is projected to rise by an additional
2.0 to 11.5 °F by the end of the century,
with accompanying increases in extreme
weather events, variable and/or incon-sistent weather patterns, sea levels and
other factors with significant impacts
on natural environments and the vital
services they provide.
Faced with a future climate that will
be unlike that of the recent past, the
nation has the opportunity to act now
to reduce the impacts of climate change
on its valuable natural resources and
resource-dependent communities and
businesses. Preparing for and addressing
these changes in the near term can help
increase the efficiency and effectiveness
of actions to reduce negative impacts
and take advantage of potential benefits
from a changing climate (climate adap-tation). In 2009, Congress recognized
the need for a national government-
“...develop a national,
government-wide strategy to
address climate impacts on fish,
wildlife, plants, and associated
ecological processes.”
—Department of the Interior, Environment, and Related Ag encies Appr opr iations Ac t, 2010g
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Executive Summary | 3
and other decision makers to take
effective steps towards climate change
adaptation over the next five to ten years.
Federal, state, and tribal governments
and conservation partners are encour-aged to read the Strategy in its entirety
to identify intersections between the
document and their mission areas and
activities.
The Strategy is guided by nine principles.
These principles include collaborating
across all levels of government, working
with non-government entities such as
private landowners and other sectors like
agriculture and energy, and engaging the
public. It is also important to use the best
available science—and to identify where
science and management capabilities
must be improved or enhanced. When
adaptation steps are taken, it is crucial
to carefully monitor actual outcomes in
order to adjust future actions to make
them more effective, an iterative process
called adaptive management. We must
also link efforts within the U.S. with
wide climate adaptation strategy for fish,
wildlife, plants, and ecosystems, asking
the Council on Environmental Quality
(CEQ) and the U.S. Department of the
Interior (DOI) to develop such a strategy.
CEQ and DOI responded by assembling
an unprecedented partnership of federal,
state, and tribal fish and wildlife conser-vation agencies to draft the document.
More than 90 diverse technical, scientific,
and management experts from across the
country participated in drafting the
technical content of the document.
The result is The National Fish, Wildlife
and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
(hereafter Strategy). The Strategy is the
first joint effort of three levels of govern-ment (federal, state, and tribal) that have
primary authority and responsibility for
the living resources of the United States
to identify what must be done to help
these resources become more resilient,
adapt to, and survive a warming climate.
It is designed to inspire and enable
natural resource managers, legislators,
efforts internationally to build resil-ience and adaptation for species that
migrate and depend on areas beyond
U.S. borders. Finally, given the size and
urgency of the challenge, we must begin
acting now.
Climate Change
Impacts on Natural
Systems
The Strategy details the current and
expected future impacts of climate
change on the eight major ecosystem
types in the United States (Chapter 2).
For example, warmer temperatures
and changing precipitation patterns are
expected to cause more fires and more
pest outbreaks, such as the mountain
pine beetle epidemic in western forests,
while some types of forests will displace
what is now tundra. Grasslands and
shrublands are likely to be invaded by
non-native species and suffer wetland
losses from drier conditions, which
would decrease nesting habitat for water-fowl. Deserts are expected to get hotter
and drier, accelerating existing declines
in species like the Saguaro cactus.
Climate change is expected to be
especially dramatic in the Arctic.
Temperature increases in northern
Alaska would change tussock tundra
into shrublands, leading to increased fire
risk. In addition, the thawing of frozen
organic material in soils would release
huge amounts of GHGs, contributing to
climate change. In coastal and marine
areas, the loss of sea ice and changing
ocean conditions are threatening key
species such as walrus, ice seals and polar
bears as well as the lifestyles and subsis-tence economics of indigenous peoples.
Global annual
average
temperature from
1901–2000,
indicating a
clear long-term
global warming
trend. Orange
bars indicate
temperatures
above and blue
bars indicate
temperatures
below the average.
The black line
shows atmospheric
carbon dioxide
(CO2) concentration
in parts per
million (ppm).
58.5°F
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
260
58.0°F
57.5°F
57.0°F
56.5°F
CO2 CONCENTRATION (PPM)
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxidesource: us gcrp 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States.
4 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
areas (including refugia and corridors
of habitat that allow species to migrate),
and areas where habitat restoration can
promote resiliency and adaptation of
species and ecosystem functions.
In addition to traditional habitat restora-tion and protection efforts, this Strategy
envisions innovative opportunities for
creating additional habitat. For example,
the U.S. Department of Agriculture
(USDA) works with farmers and ranchers
to cost-share conservation practices that
benefit at-risk, threatened, or endan-gered species, such as the lesser prairie
chicken. These efforts may be useful in
responding to climate change as well as
other existing conservation challenges.
Similarly, adjusting rice farming practices
in Louisiana could provide valuable new
resources for a variety of waterfowl and
shorebirds whose habitat is now disap-pearing because of wetland loss and sea
level rise.
It is also possible to use applied manage-ment to make habitats and species
more resistant to climate change so
they continue to provide sustainable
cultural, subsistence, recreational, and
commercial uses. For example, managing
stream corridors to preserve functional
processes and reconnect channels with
well-vegetated floodplains may help
to ensure a steady supply of ground-water recharge that maintains coldwater
species even when air temperatures rise.
Floodplains serve as vital hydrologic
capacitors, and may become even more
important in many parts of the country
as more precipitation falls as rain instead
of snow. Protecting and restoring stream
habitats to maintain more narrow and
deep stream beds and riparian shade
cover can also help keep water tempera-tures cool in a warming climate.
Climate Change
Adaptation Strategies
and Actions
The Strategy describes steps that can
be taken to address these impacts and
help conserve ecosystems and make them
more resilient (Chapter 3). Proposed
strategies and actions along with check-lists to monitor progress are organized
under seven major goals in the Strategy:
1 |
Conserve and connect habitat
2 |
Manage species and habitats
3 |
Enhance management capacity
4 |
Support adaptive management
5 |
Increase knowledge and information
6 |
Increase awareness and motivate action
7 |
Reduce non-climate stressors
Many proposed actions describe types of
conservation activities that management
agencies have traditionally undertaken
but that will continue to be useful in a
period of climate change. Other actions
are designed specifically to respond to
the new challenges posed by climate
change.
An extremely important approach for
helping fish, wildlife, and plants adapt
to climate change is conserving enough
suitable habitat to sustain diverse and
healthy populations. Many wildlife
refuges and habitats could lose some of
their original values, as the plants and
animals they safeguard are forced to
move into more hospitable climes. As a
result, there is an urgent need to identify
the best candidates for new conservation
Rivers, streams, and lakes face higher
temperatures that harm coldwater
species like salmon and trout, while sea
level rise threatens coastal marshes and
beaches, which are crucial habitats for
many species, such as the diamondback
terrapin and the piping plover.
Since water can absorb CO2 from the air,
the rising levels of the gas in the atmo-sphere and accompanying absorption
into the oceans have caused ocean waters
to become 30 percent more acidic since
1750. Acidification is already affecting
the reproduction of organisms such as
oysters. As the pH of seawater continues
to drop, major impacts on aquatic ecosys-tems and species are expected.
Executive Summary
Loss of arctic ice means loss of valuable
habitat for many marine species.
USFWS/Joel
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Executive Summary | 5
of ecosystem services provided by well-
functioning ecosystems also are needed.
For example, there may be fewer salmon
for commercial and recreational harvest,
as well as for traditional ceremonial and
cultural practices of indigenous peoples.
Adaptation efforts will be most successful
if they have broad support and if key
groups are motivated to take action
themselves. Efforts to increase aware-ness and motivate action should be
targeted toward elected officials, public
and private decision makers, groups that
are interested in learning more about
climate change, private landowners, and
natural resource user groups. Engaging
these stakeholders early and repeatedly to
increase awareness of climate change, to
develop integrated adaptation responses,
and to motivate their participation is key
to making this Strategy work.
Reducing existing stressors on fish, wild-life, and plants may be one of the most
effective, and doable, ways to increase
resilience to climate change. Many
existing non-climate stressors may be
exacerbated by climate change. In partic-ular, avoiding, reducing and addressing
the ongoing habitat degradation (e.g.,
pollution, loss of open space) associ-ated with human development is critical
and requires collaboration with land-use
planners and private land owners. Taking
steps to reduce stressors not related to
climate, such as fighting invasive species
like water hyacinth, can help natural
systems cope with the additional pres-sures imposed by a changing climate.Reducing existing stressors on
fish, wildlife, and plants may
be one of the most effective,
and doable, ways to increase
resilience to climate change.
It will frequently be difficult to predict
how individual species and ecosystems
will react to climate change. Adaptation
in the face of uncertain impacts requires
coordinated observation and monitoring,
information management and decision
support systems, and a commitment
to adaptive management approaches.
Coordinated information management
systems, such as the National Ecological
Observatory Network and the Integrated
Ocean Observing System, that link and
make available the data developed by
separate agencies or groups have a crit-ical role to play in increasing access to
and use of this information by resource
managers, planners, and decision makers.
Vulnerability assessments are key steps
to help managers develop and prioritize
adaptation efforts and inform manage-ment approaches.
Additional research and modeling efforts
are needed to increase knowledge about
the specific impacts of climate change
on fish, wildlife, plants, and habitats and
their adaptive capacity to respond. The
use of models has already produced valu-able information for planning for climate
change impacts, and more refined
models at temporal and spatial scales
appropriate to adaptation are required.
Methods to objectively quantify the value
Climate change adaptation requires
new ways of assessing information, new
management tools and professional skills,
increased collaboration across jurisdic-tions, and review of laws, regulations,
and policies to ensure effectiveness
in a changing world. Climate change
impacts are occurring at scales much
larger than the operational scope of indi-vidual organizations and agencies, and
successful adaptation demands strong
collaboration among all jurisdictions.
Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
(LCCs), migratory bird and other Joint
Ventures (JVs), National Fish Habitat
Partnerships (NFHPs), and other existing
and emerging partnerships are useful
vehicles to promote diverse collabo-ration across larger scales. Because of
the dependence of Native Americans,
Alaska Natives and other groups on their
natural resources for their economic
and cultural identity, climate change
is a threat not only to those natural
resources, but also to the traditions, the
culture, and ultimately, the very health of
the communities themselves. Indigenous
communities possess traditional ecolog-ical knowledge (TEK) and relationships
with particular resources and homeland
areas, accumulated through thousands
of years of history and tradition, which
make them highly sensitive to, and
aware of, environmental change. Alaska
provides an excellent example of not
only how TEK can be successfully inte-grated into management activities, but
also how this knowledge can be collected,
used, and protected in a respectful and
culturally-sensitive manner, benefitting
both indigenous and non-indigenous
communities.6 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
of adaptation and conservation efforts
and programs (Chapter 5) at local, state,
regional and national levels. Examples
include the U.S. Global Change Research
Program (USGCRP), which produces
the National Climate Assessment (NCA)
every four years; the Interagency Climate
Change Adaptation Task Force (ICCATF)
that provides a venue to communicate
and help coordinate U.S. federal agency
adaptation efforts; State Wildlife Action
Plans; EPA regional initiatives such as
the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative;
and the work of the LCCs. Implementing
the Strategy will require coordination
and collaboration among these and
many other entities. The Strategy calls for creation of a coordination body to
oversee its implementation and engage
with conservation partners.Integration and
Implementation
The Strategy emphasizes that actions to
help fish, wildlife, plants, and natural
systems adapt to climate change can
be coordinated with measures taken in
other sectors, such as agriculture, energy,
water, and transportation, to increase
the benefits for all sectors (Chapter 4).
One example of an action that benefits
multiple sectors and ecosystems is better
management of stormwater runoff,
which not only reduces risks of flooding
in cities, but also reduces the threat that
toxic algal blooms will affect aquatic
ecosystems.
The Strategy is designed to build upon
and complement the growing number
The Strategy is a call
to action. We can take
effective action to reduce
risks and increase resiliency
of valuable natural
resources. Unless the
nation begins a serious
effort to undertake this
task now, we risk losing
priceless living systems —
and the benefits and
services they provide —
as the climate changes.
Executive SummaryusfwsAbout the Strategy | 7
CH.1 About the Strategy
The purpose of the National Fish, Wildlife and Plants
Climate Adaptation Strategy (hereafter Strategy) is
to inspire and enable natural resource administrators, elected officials, and other decision makers to
take action to help the nation’s valuable natural
resources and people that depend on them adapt to a changing climate.
The Strategy identifies major
goals and outlines strategies
and actions needed to attain
those goals.
1.1 A Broad National
EffortAdaptation actions are vital to
sustaining the nation’s ecosystems
and natural resources—as well as the
human uses and values that the natural
world provides. The Strategy explains the
challenge ahead and offers a guide for
actions that can be taken now, in spite
of remaining uncertainties over how
climate change will impact living
resources. It further provides guidance
on longer-term actions most likely to
promote natural resource adaptation to
climate change. Because climate adapta-tion cuts across many boundaries, the
Strategy also describes mechanisms to
increase collaboration among all levels of
government, conservation organizations,
and private landowners.
The Strategy focuses on preparing for
and reducing the most serious impacts of
climate change and related non-climate
stressors on fish, wildlife, and plants. It
places priority on addressing impacts
for which there is enough information
to recommend sensible actions that can
be taken or initiated over the next five
to ten years in the context of climate
change projections through the end of
the century. Further, it identifies key
knowledge, technology, information,
and governance gaps that hamper
effective action. While the Strategy
is focused on adaptation rather than
mitigation (or reduction) of GHGs, it
includes approaches that may also have
mitigation benefits.
The Strategy is not a detailed assessment
of climate science or a comprehensive
report of the impacts of climate change
on individual species or ecosystems; an
abundant and growing literature on those
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adaptation of ecosystems and resources
(CCSP 2008c). In addition, a coalition
of hunting and fishing organizations
published reports in 2008 and 2009 on
the current and future impacts of climate
change on fish and wildlife and called
for increased action to help sustain these
resources in a changing climate (Wildlife
Management Institute 2008, 2009).
Congress asked CEQ and DOI to develop
a national strategy to “…assist fish,
wildlife, plants, and related ecological
processes in becoming more resilient,
adapting to, and surviving the impacts
of climate change” as part of the 2010
Appropriations Bill for the Department
of the Interior and Related Agencies
(U.S. Congress 2010). Acting for DOI,
the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
(FWS) and CEQ then invited the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) and state wild-life agencies, with the New York State
Division of Fish, Wildlife, and Marine
Resources as their lead representa-tive, to co-lead the development of the
Strategy. In October of 2010, the ICCATF
endorsed the development of the Strategy
as a key step in advancing U.S. efforts to
adapt to a changing climate.1
A 22-person Steering Committee was
formed in January 2011, and includes
representatives from 15 federal agen-cies
with management authorities for
fish, wildlife, plants, or habitat, as well
as representatives from five state fish
and wildlife agencies and two intertribal
commissions. The Committee charged
a small Management Team, including
1 See “Progress Report of the Interagency Climate
Adaptation Task Force: Recommended Actions in
Support of a National Climate Change Adaptation
Strategy. <www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/
microsites/ceq/Interagency-Climate-Change-Adaptation-
Progress-Report.pdf>
In order for the Strategy to be effec-tively implemented, progress should be
periodically evaluated and the Strategy
reassessed and updated through the
same sort of collaborative process as was
employed in the production of this first
effort. The Strategy calls for formation of
a coordinating body with representation
from federal, state, and tribal govern-ments meet semi-annually to promote
and evaluate implementation and to
report progress annually.
1.2 Origin and
Development
Over the past decade, there have
been an increasing number of calls
by government and non-governmental
entities for a national effort to better
understand, prepare for and address the
impacts of climate change on natural
resources and the communities that
depend on them. These calls helped lay
the foundation for development of
this Strategy.
For example, in 2007, the U.S.
Government Accountability Office
(GAO) released a study entitled “Climate
Change: Agencies Should Develop
Guidance for Addressing the Effects
on Federal Land and Water Resources,”
recommending that guidance and tools
be developed to help federal natural
resource managers address and incorpo-rate climate change into their resource
management efforts (GAO 2007). In
2008, the USGCRP released the report
Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options
for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and
Resources that called for and identi-fied new approaches to natural resource
management to increase resiliency and
topics already exists (IPCC AR4 2007,
USGCRP 2009, Parmesan 2006). It is
not a detailed operational plan, nor does
it prescribe specific actions to be taken
by specific agencies or organizations,
or specific management actions
for individual species. Rather, this is
a broad national adaptation strategy:
it identifies major goals and outlines
strategies and actions needed to attain
those goals. It describes the “why, what,
and when” of what the nation must do to
assist our living resources to cope with
climate change. The “who, where, and
how” of these strategies and actions must
be decided through the many existing
collaborative processes for management
planning, decision-making, and action.
In addition, the development of
strategies and actions for this document
was not constrained by assumptions of
current or future available resources.
The implementation of recommended
strategies and actions, and the alloca-tion of resources towards them, are the
prerogative of the Strategy audience,
(e.g., decision makers).
Federal, tribal, state, and local govern-ments and conservation partners have
initiated a variety of efforts to help
prepare for and respond to the impacts
of climate change on the nation’s natural
resources and the valuable services they
provide. This Strategy is designed to build
on and assist these efforts across multiple
scales and organizations. These entities
are encouraged to identify areas of the
Strategy that bear on their missions and
work collaboratively with other organi-zations to design and implement specific
actions to reduce the impacts of climate
change on fish, wildlife, and plants.
About the Strategy
About the Strategy | 9
» » Extreme events like heat waves and
regional droughts have become more
frequent and intense;» » Hurricanes in the Atlantic and eastern
Pacific have gotten stronger in the past
few decades;» » Sea levels have risen eight inches
globally over the past century and are
climbing along most of our nation’s
coastline;» » Cold season storm tracks are shifting
northward;» » The annual extent of Arctic sea ice is
shrinking rapidly; and» » Oceans are becoming more acidic.
All of these changes have been well
documented and described in the report:
Global Climate Change Impacts in the
United States (USGCRP 2009), the
primary scientific reference on climate
change science for this document.
Moreover, the changes are harbingers of
far greater changes to come.
1.3 The Case for Action
1.3.1 The Climate is Changing
Measurements and observations show
unequivocally that the Earth’s climate is
currently in a period of unusually rapid
change. The impacts of climate change
are occurring across the United States.
For example:» » Average air temperature has increased
two degrees Fahrenheit (°F) and
precipitation has increased approxi-mately five percent in the United States
in the last 50 years;» » Average global ocean temperatures
have increased nearly 0.4°F since 1955;» » The amount of rain falling in the
heaviest storms is up 20 percent in the
last century, causing unprecedented
floods;
representatives of the FWS, NOAA, the
Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies
(AFWA, representing the states), and
the Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife
Commission, to oversee the day-to-
day development of the Strategy. The
Management Team was asked to engage
with a diverse group of stakeholders, as
well as to coordinate and communicate
across agencies and departments.
In March of 2011, the Management Team
invited more than 90 natural resource
professionals (both researchers and
managers) from federal, state, and tribal
agencies to form eight Technical Teams,
each centered around a major U.S.
ecosystem type. These Teams, which were
co-chaired by federal, state, and tribal
representatives, worked over the next
eight months to provide technical infor-mation on climate change impacts and
to collectively develop the strategies and
actions for adapting to climate change.
The Management Team worked to iden-tify and distill the primary approaches
common across ecosystems into the
seven overarching goals, discussed in
detail in Chapter 3.
Unless the nation begins a serious effort to
undertake adaptation efforts now, we risk
losing priceless living systems — and the
benefits and services they provide — as the
climate changes.
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The science strongly supports the finding
that the underlying cause of today’s
rising temperatures, melting ice, shifting
weather, increasing ocean acidification
and other changes is the accumulation
of heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2)
and other greenhouse gases (GHGs)
in the atmosphere (IPCC AR4 2007,
USGCRP 2009, NRC 2010). Because
CO2 remains in the atmosphere for many
years, CO2 that has already been emitted
will continue to warm the Earth (and
contribute to ocean acidification) for
decades or centuries to come (Wigley
2005). Meanwhile, GHG emissions
continue, increasing the concentra-tions of these gases in the atmosphere.
Our future climate will be unlike that of
the recent past. Traditional and proven
approaches for managing fish, wildlife,
plants, ecosystems, and their human uses
may no longer be effective given the scale
and scope of climate-driven changes.
Species are shifting
their geographic
ranges, often moving
poleward or upwards
in elevation. For
instance, geese that
formally wintered
along the Missouri
River in Nebraska and South Dakota now seem
to migrate only as far south as North Dakota,
to the dismay of waterfowl hunters (Wildlife
Management Institute 2008). These shifts
may also bring wildlife into more densely
populated human areas, creating situations
of human-wildlife conflict. In addition, some
marine species are also shifting both location
and depth (Nye et al. 2009).
The phenology, such
as spring blooming,
is changing (Post et
al. 2001). This could
affect whether or not
plants are success-fully
pollinated (the
pollinators might come
at the wrong time), or whether or not food is
available when needed. For example, in the
Rocky Mountains, the American robin (see Appendix D for a list of scientific names of
species mentioned in the text) is now arriving
up to two weeks earlier than it did two decades
ago. However, the date of snow melt has not
advanced, so food resources may be limited
when the birds arrive (Inouye et al. 2000).
Since water absorbs
CO2, the oceans are becoming more acidic, affecting
the reproduction
of species such
as oysters (Feely et
al. 2008). The pH of
seawater has decreased since 1750, and is
projected to drop much more by the end of
the century as CO2 concentrations continue
to increase (USGCRP 2009). Although not
technically climate change, this additional
impact of the accumulation of CO2 in the
atmosphere is expected to have major impacts
on aquatic ecosystems and species.
Different species are
responding differently
to changes in climate,
leading to decou-pling
of important ecological relation-ships
(Edwards and
Richardson 2004).
For example, changes in phenology for
Edith’s checkerspot butterfly are leading to
mismatches with both caterpillar host plants
and nectar sources for adult butterflies,
leading to population crashes in some areas
(Parmesan 2006).
Habitat loss is
increasing due to
ecological changes
associated with
climate change,
such as sea level
rise, increased fire,
pest outbreaks,
novel weather patterns, or loss of glaciers.
For example, habitat for rainbow trout in
the southern Appalachians is being greatly
reduced as water temperatures rise
(Flebbe et al. 2006).
Declines in the
populations of
species, from
mollusks off the coast
of Alaska to frogs in
Yellowstone, are
being attributed to
climate change
(Maclean and Wilson 2011).The spread of non-native species
as well as diseases,
pests, contaminants,
and parasites are
becoming more
common. For instance,
warmer temperatures
are enabling a salmon parasite to invade
the Yukon River, causing economic harm to
indigenous peoples and the fishing industry
(Kocan et al. 2004). Also, the increasing
threats of wildlife diseases due to non-native
species include diseases transmissible
between animals and humans, which could
negatively impact native species, domestic
animals, and humans (Hoffmeister et al.
2010).
Observed Changes to Ecosystems and Species About the Strategy
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Case Stud y
Hotter summers threaten eastern brook trout
The West For k of the Kic kapoo River
in western Wisconsin is an angler’s para-dise.
Its cool, shaded waters and pools
abound with native brook trout. But brook
trout require cold water to reproduce and
survive—and water temperatures are
already rising. By the end of this century,
the self-sustaining population in the
West Fork could be gone. In fact, up to
94 percent of current brook trout habitat
in Wisconsin could be lost with a 5.4 °F
increase in air temperature (Mitro et al.
2010). Although climate change has not
caused the loss of any brook trout popula-tions
to date, the warming effects on air
temperature is projected to significantly
reduce the current range of brook trout in
the eastern United States.The threat is not limited to Wisconsin or to
brook trout. Climate change is viewed as
one of the most important stressors of
fish populations, and coldwater fish species
are especially susceptible to rising temper-atures. Declining populations would have
serious ecological and economic conse-quences,
since these fish are key sources
of nutrients for many other species and
provide major fishing industries in the Northeast, Northwest, and Alaska (Trout
Unlimited 2007).
In some cases, adaptation measures may
help reduce the threat. The first step is
measuring stream water temperatures and
flow rates to identify which trout habitats
are at greatest risk. Monitoring efforts
have already shown that some trout
streams are at lower risk because they
have water temperatures far below lethal
limits, while other streams are not likely to
see increases in water temperatures even
when air temperatures rise, since adequate
amounts of cool groundwater sustain the
stream’s baseflow in summer. This informa-tion
enables fisheries managers to focus on
the streams and rivers that are at greater
risk from climate change and from changing
land use that would decrease groundwater
discharge rates. In some streams, these
deteriorating conditions are unlikely to be
reversed. In other streams, adaptation strategies can
be implemented to reduce stream water
temperatures such as planting trees and
other streambank vegetation for shade,
or restoring stream channel morphology
to reduce solar heating. For example,
managing stream corridors to preserve
functional processes and reconnect chan-nels
with well-vegetated floodplains may
help to ensure a steady supply of ground-water
recharge that maintains coldwater
species even when air temperatures rise.
Floodplains serve as vital hydrologic capaci-tors,
and may become even more important
in many parts of the country as more
precipitation falls as rain instead of snow.
Protecting and enhancing water infiltration
rates on land is another adaptation strategy
that can increase cooler groundwater
discharge rates during the critical summer
low flow conditions.
This “triage” stream assessment approach
is similar to how accident or battlefield
responders work, where efforts are focused
on those most likely to respond to treat-ment.
Thus, limited funding is directed
toward streams that are at higher risk from
the effects of rising temperatures, and on
streams where adaptation actions are more
likely to have a positive impact.
Heat stress is the
biggest threat to cold
water fish species
and brook trout are
particularly sensitive. 1.3.2 Impacts to Fish, Wildlife,
and Plants
Given the magnitude of the observed
changes in climate, it is not surprising
that fish, wildlife, and plant resources in
the United States and around the world
are already being affected. The impacts
can be seen everywhere from working
landscapes like tree farms and pastures
to wilderness areas far from human
habitation (Parmesan 2006, Doney et
al. 2012). Although definitively estab-lishing cause and effect in any specific
case can be problematic, the overall
pattern of observed changes in species’
distributions and phenology (the timing
of life events) is consistent with biolo-gists’ expectations for a warming climate
(Parmesan 2006, Doney et al. 2012). As
the emissions of GHGs and the resulting
climate changes continue to increase in
the next century, so too will the effects on
species, ecosystems, and their functions
(USGCRP 2009). Human responses to
the challenge of climate change will also
affect, perhaps substantially, the natural
world. Furthermore, climatic change and
the human response to it are also likely to
exacerbate existing stressors like habitat
loss and fragmentation, putting addi-tional pressure on our nation’s valued
living resources (USGCRP 2009).
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The continuance or growth of these types
of economic activities is directly related
to the extent and health of our nation’s
ecosystems and the services they provide.
Natural resources provide a wide variety
of other types of benefits and services
to people and communities every day,
many of which are not traded in markets
and are sometimes difficult to mone-tize. For example, forests help provide
clean drinking water for many cities
and towns. Coastal habitats such as
coral reefs, wetlands, and mangroves
help protect people and communities
from storms, erosion, and flood damage
(DOI and DOC 2006, CCSP 2009a).
For many people, quality of life depends
on frequent interaction with wildlife.
Others simply take comfort in knowing
that the wildlife and natural places that
they know and love still survive, at least
somewhere. For many Native Americans and rural
Americans, wild species and habitats are
central to their very cultural identities
as well as their livelihoods. The animals
and plants that are culturally important
to these communities have values that are
difficult to quantify and weigh in mone-tary terms; but this makes them no less
valuable to people.
saltwater fishing trips occurred along
U.S. coasts, generating $50 billion in sales
impacts and supporting over 327,000
jobs (NMFS 2010). Aquatic habitat and
species conservation alone contributes
over $3.6 billion per year to the economy
in the U.S., and supports over 68,000
jobs (Charbonneau and Caudill 2010).
Americans and foreign visitors made
some 439 million visits to DOI-managed
lands in 2009. These visits (an example
of a cultural service) supported over
388,000 jobs and contributed over
$47 billion in economic activity. The U.S. seafood industry—
most of which is based on wild,
free-ranging marine species—
annually supports approximately
1 million full-and part-time jobs.
This economic output represents about
eight percent of the direct output of
tourism-related personal consump-tion expenditures for the United States
for 2009 and about 1.3 percent of the
direct tourism related employment (DOI
2011). Every year, coastal habitats such
as coral reefs, wetlands, and mangroves
help protect people, infra-structure and
communities from storms, erosion, and
flood damage worth billions of dollars
(DOI and DOC 2006, CCSP 2009a).
1.3.3 Ecosystem Services
Natural systems are of fundamental value
and benefit to people. Natural environ-ments provide enormously valuable, but
largely unaccounted for, services that
support people as well as other species
(NRC 2004, NRC 2012, PCAST 2011).
The materials and processes that ecosys-tems produce that are of value to people
are known as “ecosystem services” and
can be organized into four general
categories (Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment 2005):» » Provisioning Services, including food,
water, medicines, and wood.» » Regulating Services, such as climate
regulation, flood suppression, disease/
pest control, and water filtration.» » Cultural Services, such as aesthetic,
spiritual, educational, and recreational
services.» » Supporting Services, such as nutrient
cycling, soil formation, pollination,
and plant productivity.
Economic contributions of ecosystem
services have been quantified in some
areas. For example, hunting, fishing,
and other wildlife-related recreation
in the United States (an example of
provisioning and cultural services) is
estimated to contribute $122 billion to
our nation’s economy annually (DOI and
DOC 2006). The U.S. seafood industry—
most of which is based on wild,
free-ranging marine species—supported
approximately 1 million full-and part-
time jobs and generated $116 billion in
sales impacts and $32 billion in income
impacts in 2009 (NMFS 2010). Marine
recreational fishing also contributes to
coastal areas as an economic engine;
in 2009, approximately 74 million Natural environments provide enormously
valuable services and goods that benefit
humans and other species.
About the Strategy
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About the Strategy | 13
» » The valuation exercise should focus on
changes in ecosystem goods or services
attributable to a policy action, relative
to a baseline.
Where an ecosystem’s services and goods
can be identified and measured, it will
often be possible to assign values to them
by employing existing economic valua-tion methods. However, some ecosystem
goods and services resist valuation
because they are not easily quantifi-able or because available methods are
not appropriate, reliable, or fully devel-oped. Economic valuation methods can
be complex and demanding, and the
results of applying these methods may
be subject to judgment, uncertainty, bias,
and market imperfections. There is also
the risk that, where not all values can be
estimated, those that can be valued lead
to management that harms the overall
system in pursuit of maximizing only
that portion of its values (e.g., replacing
natural wetland communities with
monotypic wetlands to maximize water
purification).
However, if policymakers consider bene-fits, costs, and trade-offs when making
policy decisions, then monetization of
the value of ecosystem services is essen-tial. Failure to include some measure
of the value of ecosystem services in
benefit-cost calculations will implicitly
and erroneously assign them a value of
zero. In brief:» » If the benefits and costs of an adaption
action or policy are to be evaluated,
the benefits and costs associated with
changes in ecosystem services should
be included along with other impacts
to ensure that ecosystem effects are
adequately considered in policy
evaluation.» » Economic valuation of changes in
ecosystem services should be based on
the total economic value framework,
which includes both use and nonuse
values.
Over the past two decades the emerging
environmental marketplace has been
delivering evidence that at least some
ecosystem services can be partially
captured in markets. The buying, selling,
and trading of ecosystem services
as commercial commodities is now
routinely occurring. Carbon credits,
wetland credits, emission reduction
credits, and species credits represent
voluntary improvements in air and
water quality and supply, land use and
waste management, as well as biodi-versity protection. These commodities
are now exchanged across a number of
recognized regional, national, and inter-national platforms. Because these credits
have achieved measureable monetary
value representing incremental improve-ments in ecological health and integrity,
they shed some light on the overall value
of ecosystem services. For example, the
total global value of tradable ecological
assets (water, carbon, and biodiversity)
exceeded $250 billion in 2011 (Carroll
and Jenkins 2012).
Despite growing recognition of the
importance of ecosystem functions and
services, they are often taken for granted,
undervalued, and overlooked in environ-mental decision-making (NRC 2012).
Thus, choices between the conserva-tion and restoration of some ecosystems
and the continuation and expansion of
human activities in others have to be
made in recognition of this potential for
conflict and of the value of ecosystem
services. In making these choices, the
economic values of the ecosystem goods
and services must be known so that they
can be compared with the economic
values of activities that may compromise
them (NRC 2004, NRC 2012).
“Blue carbon” is a
term used to describe
the biological carbon
sequestered and stored
by marine and coastal
organisms, with a
significant fraction being
stored in sediments,
coastal seagrasses,
tidal marshes, and
mangroves.
Some actions, like strategies that preserve
or enhance the carbon sequestration
capacity of an ecosystem, can serve
to mitigate or reduce the emission of
GHGs while also improving the adaptive
capacity of the ecosystem (i.e., providing
multiple ecosystem services). While the
Strategy is not focused on mitigation
per se, it includes strategies and actions
that serve mitigation as well as adapta-tion goals. Unlike actions to mitigate the
impacts of climate change (which often
require coordinated actions at various
levels of government), adaptation deci-sions are largely decentralized. They will
be made to a large extent in well-estab-lished decision-making contexts such as
private sector decision-making or public
sector planning efforts. Some adapta-tions will benefit the public and as such,
may be provided by the local, state, tribal,
USFWS/Steve
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14 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
1.3.4 Adaptation to Climate
Change
While addressing the causes of climate
change (i.e., mitigation) is absolutely
necessary, mitigation will not be suffi-cient to prevent major impacts due to
the amount of GHGs that have already
been emitted into the global atmosphere.
Society’s choices of what actions to take
in the face of climate change can either
make it harder or easier for our living
resources to persist in spite of climate
change. Effective action by managers,
communities, and the public is both
possible (see Chapter 3) and crucial.
Adaptation in the climate change context
has been specifically defined as an
“adjustment in natural or human systems
Case Stud y
What happens to Tribal identity if birch bark vanishes?
or federal government. These adaptation
decisions can be evaluated using tradi-tional tools such as cost-benefit analysis.
In certain circumstances, ethnographic
research may prove more useful than
cost-benefit analysis in understanding
perceived public benefits. Private sector
decisions are likely to be evaluated using
standard investment appraisal tech-niques, for example, calculating the net
present value of an adaptation investment,
analyzing its risks and returns, or deter-mining the return on capital invested.
A full accounting of ecosystem services
has yet to be done for any ecosystem.
Nevertheless, as climate change influences
the distribution, extent, and composition
of ecosystems, it will also affect the spec-trum of services and economic value
those ecosystems provide.
Climate limate change models suggest that
by 2100, the paper birch tree may no
longer be able to survive throughout its
range in the United States (Prasad et al.
2007). This would be not just an ecological
loss, but a devastating cultural loss as well.
Some species are so fundamental to the
cultural identity of a people through diverse
roles in diet, materials, medicine, and/or
spiritual practices that they may be thought
of as cultural keystone species (Garibaldi
and Turner 2004). The paper birch is one
such example.
Paper birch bark has been indispensable
for canoes, sacred fires, and as a substrate
to grow fungi for medicines. It was used
for food storage containers to retard
spoilage, earning it the nickname of the
“original Tupperware™”.
central to some of the great legends of the Anishinaabe or Ojibwe peoples (also known
as Chippewa).
These rich cultural and economic uses and
values are at risk if the paper birch tree
disappears from the traditional territories
of many U.S. tribes. Already, artisans in the
Upper Midwest are concerned about what
they believe is a diminishing supply of
birch bark.
Until adaptive management strategies are
developed and implemented, managers will
have to rely on identifying suitable areas to
serve as refugia where culturally significant
numbers of the species can survive.
in response to actual or expected climatic
stimuli or their effects, which moderates
harm or exploits beneficial opportuni-ties” (IPCC WGII 2007). Adaptation in
the biological context has a somewhat
different meaning. In essence, biological
adaptation refers both to the process
and the products of natural selection
that change the behavior, function, or
structure of an organism that makes
it better suited to its environment. The
factors that control the rate of biological
adaptation (e.g., population size, genetic
variability, mutation rate, selection
pressure, etc.) are rarely under full
control of human action. Much as people
might like, human intervention will not
be able to make species adapt to climate
change. But our actions can make such
adaptation more or less likely.It is an extremely durable material and is still
used as a canvas on which traditional stories
and images are etched, contributing to the
survival of Native culture and providing a
source of revenue. Indeed, birch bark is crucial
for the economic health of skilled craftspeople
who turn it into baskets and other items for
sale to tourists and collectors. Paper birch is ch
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About the Strategy | 15
The science and practice of adaptation to
climate change is an emerging discipline
that focuses on evaluating and under-standing the vulnerability and exposure
that natural resources face due to climate
change, and then preparing people and
natural systems to cope with the impacts
of climate change through adaptive
management (Glick et al. 2011a). The
ability of populations, species, or systems
to adapt to a changing climate is often
referred to as their adaptive capacity.
Because climate change is a long-term
problem, both the level and timing of
adaptation decisions is important. Both
sets of decisions—level and timing—
will be made under uncertainty about
the precise impacts of climate change.
Timing decisions should recognize the
following:» » Early action may be more cost effective
in situations where long-lived infra-structure investments such as water
and sanitation systems, bridges, and
ports are being considered. In these
cases, it is likely to be cheaper to make
adjustments early, in the design phase
of the project, rather than incur the
cost and inconvenience of expensive
retrofits.» » Early adaptation actions will be justi-fied if they have immediate benefits,
for example, by mitigating the effects
of climate variability. In addition,
adaptation actions that have ancillary
benefits such as measures to preserve
and strengthen the resilience of natural
ecosystems might also be justified in
the short-term.
Resistance Resilience Transformation
Three general types of adaptation responses illustrate points along a continuum of possible
responses to climate change:Ability of a system
to remain essentially
intact or unchanged as
climate changes
Ability of a system to
recover from a disturbance,
returning to its
original state.
The change in a system’s
composition and/or
function in response to
changes in climate or
other factors.
Application of the adaptation approaches
described in this Strategy must carefully
consider whether the desired outcome
in any given situation should be to try
to increase the resistance of a natural
system to climate change, to attempt
to make it more resilient in the face of
climate change, or to assist its transfor-mation into a new and different state—or
to achieve some combination of all three
outcomes (Hansen and Hoffman 2011).
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Case Stud y
Climate change on the Kenai Peninsula
Deciding what to do requires
examining the institutions,
laws, regulations, policies,
and programs that our nation
has developed to maintain
our valuable resources and the
many benefits they provide. It requires evaluating the
management techniques that
the conservation profession and
other sectors (such as agriculture,
energy, housing and urban
development, transportation, and
water resources) have developed
over time, as well as considering
new approaches where necessary
Perhaps most of all, it requires
communicating our shared social
values for wild living things and
the ecosystems in which they live.
Those social values can form the
basis of cooperative intervention.
For a glimpse of the dramatic dramatic changes
that a warming climate may bring to the
entire nation, look no farther than Alaska’s
seven million-acre Kenai Peninsula. Here,
warmer temperatures have increased over-winter
survival and boosted populations of
spruce bark beetle, enabling the pest to
devastate four million acres of forest on the
peninsula and south-central Alaska over a
15-year period (Berg et al. 2006). Meanwhile, the treeline has risen an
unprecedented 150 feet (Dial et al. 2007);
the area of wetlands has decreased by
six to 11 percent per decade (Klein et al.
2005, Berg et al. 2009, Klein et al. 2011);
the Harding Icefield, the largest glacial
complex in the United States, has shrunk
by five percent in surface area and 60 feet
in height (Rice 1987, Adageirsdottir et al.
1998); and available water has declined
55 percent (Berg et al. 2009). The fire
regime is also changing: late summer
canopy fires in spruce are being replaced
by spring fires in bluejoint grasslands, and
a 2005 wildfire in mountain hemlock was
far different from any previous fire regime
(Morton et al. 2006).
While these changes are already sobering,
even greater changes lie ahead, according
to projections from spatial modeling. As
the climate continues to warm and dry,
the western side of the peninsula could
see an almost catastrophic loss of forest.
Salmon populations—and the communities
that depend on salmon—are projected to
suffer because of higher stream tempera-tures (Mauger 2011) and increased glacial
sediment (Edmundson et al. 2003). Overall,
20 percent of species may vanish from the
peninsula in the worst case scenario.
Is adapting to this rapidly changing climate
possible? Some communities are already
taking positive steps. For instance, state
and local agencies are replanting beetle-
killed areas that have become grasslands
with white spruce and non-native lodgepole
pine to reduce fire hazards for nearby cities
and communities.
The Kenai National Wildlife Refuge, Kenai
Fjords National Park, Chugach National
Forest, and the University of Alaska
Anchorage are developing a climate vulner-ability
assessment in 2012 for the Kenai
Peninsula and adjacent mainland. Plans are
underway to develop interagency strategies
for developing retrospective and prospec-tive
options (Magness et al. 2011) for
adapting to climate change effects on the Kenai Peninsula. The geographic discrete-ness
of the peninsula, the substantial
lands under federal management, and the
documentation of dramatic climate change
impacts combine to make Kenai an ideal
laboratory to explore the effectiveness of
various adaptation measures.
About the Strategy
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About the Strategy | 17
1.4 Purpose, Vision,
and Guiding Principles
In 2009, the FWS launched a series of
Conservation Leadership Forums to
bring together leaders in the conser-vation community to discuss what a
Strategy should include and how it
should be developed. That effort, and
others, produced a purpose, a vision, and
guiding principles for developing this
first national climate change adaptation
strategy.
Inspire and enable natural
resource professionals and
other decision makers to
take action to conserve the
nation’s fish, wildlife, plants,
and ecosystem functions, as
well as the human uses and
values these natural systems
provide, in a changing
climate.
Ecological systems will
sustain healthy, diverse,
and abundant populations
of fish, wildlife, and plants.
These systems will provide
valuable cultural, economic,
and environmental benefits
in a world impacted by
global climate change.
Purpose vision
Focus actions and investments
on natural resources of the United
States and its Territories.
But also acknowledge the importance of
international collaboration and information-
sharing, particularly across our borders
with Canada and Mexico. International
cooperation is important to conservation
of migratory resources over broad
geographic ranges.
Identify critical scientific and
management needs.
These may include new research, informa-tion
technology, training to expand technical
skills, or new policies, programs, or
regulations.
Identify opportunities to integrate
climate adaptation and mitigation
efforts.
Strategies to increase natural resource
resilience while reducing GHG emissions
may directly complement each other to
advance current conservation efforts, as
well as to achieve short- and long-term
conservation goals.
Act now. Immediate planning and action are needed
to better understand and address the
impacts of climate change and to safeguard
natural resources now and into the future.An unprecedented commitment to collaboration and communication is required among federal,
state, and tribal governments to effectively respond to climate impacts. There must also be
active engagement with conservation organizations, industry groups, and private landowners. These considerations and the following principles guided the development of the Strategy:
guiding principles
Build a national framework for
cooperative response.
Provide a nation-wide framework for
collective action that promotes collab-oration
across sectors and levels of
government so they can effectively respond
to climate impacts across multiple scales.
Foster communication and
collaboration across government
and non-government entities.
Create an environment that supports the
development of cooperative approaches
among government and non-government
entities to adapting to climate change while
respecting jurisdictional authority.
Engage the public.
To ensure success and gain support for
adaptation strategies, a high priority must
be placed on public outreach, education,
and engagement in adaptation planning
and natural resource conservation.
Adopt a landscape/seascape based
approach that integrates best available
science and adaptive management.
Strategies for natural resource adaptation
should employ: ecosystem-based manage-ment
principles; species-habitat relationships;
ecological systems and function; strengthened
observation, monitoring, and data collection
systems; model-based projections; vulner-ability
and risk assessment; and adaptive
management.
Integrate strategies for natural
resources adaptation with those of
other sectors.
Adaptation planning in sectors including
agriculture, energy, human health, and trans-portation may support and advance natural
resource conservation in a changing climate.18 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
monitoring of how species and natural
systems are currently reacting to climate
impacts and to adaptation actions will
also be a critical part of reducing uncer-tainty and increasing the effectiveness
of management responses. These tools
and approaches can all inform scenario
planning, which involves anticipating
a reasonable range of future conditions
and planning management activities
around a limited set of likely future
scenarios. In addition, other approaches
aim to identify actions that are expected
to succeed across a range of uncertain
future conditions such as reducing non-
climate stressors or managing to preserve
a diversity of species and habitats.
Another important component of
managing risk and uncertainty is to
better integrate existing scientific infor-mation into management and policy
decisions. This requires that research
results be accessible, understandable,
and highly relevant to decision makers.
In addition, decision support tools that
help connect the best available science
to day-to-day management decisions
should continue to be developed, used,
and improved, and research priori-ties should be linked to the needs of
managers on the ground.
It is important to remember that natural
resource management has always been
faced with uncertainty about future
conditions and the likely impacts of
a particular action. The adaptation
strategies and actions in this Strategy
are intended to help natural resource
managers and other decision makers
make proactive climate change-related
decisions today, recognizing that new
information will become available over
time that can then be factored into
future decisions.
1.5 Risk and
Uncertainty
Climate change presents a new chal-lenge to natural resource managers and
other decision makers. The future will
be different from the recent past, so the
historical record cannot be the sole basis to
guide conservation actions. More is being
learned every year about how the climate
will change, how those changes will affect
species, ecosystems, and their functions
and services, and how future management
and policy choices will exacerbate or alle-viate these impacts. This uncertainty is not
a reason for inaction, but rather a reason
for prudent action: using the best available
information while striving to improve our
understanding over time.
An important approach for dealing
with risk and uncertainty is the iterative
process of adaptive management. Adaptive
management is a structured approach
toward learning, planning, and adjust-ment where continual learning is built
into the management process so that new
information can be incorporated into deci-sion-making over time without delaying
needed actions. Carefully monitoring the
actual outcomes of management actions
allows for adjustments to future activities
based on the success of the initial actions.
A variety of tools and approaches can help
managers deal with risk and reduce uncer-tainty, thus, informing managers about
how climate change may affect particular
systems or regions. Improved climate
modeling and downscaling can help
build confidence in predictions of future
climate, while climate change vulnerability
assessments can help to identify which
species or systems are likely to be most
affected by climate changes. Well-designed
What hat is ...?
Risk Assessment
A risk assessment is the process of identifying
the magnitude or consequences of an adverse
event or impact occurring, as well as the
probability that it will occur (Jones 2001).
Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability assessments are science-based
activities (research, modeling, monitoring, etc.)
that identify or evaluate the degree to which
natural resources, infrastructure, or other
values are likely to be affected by climate
change.
Adaptive Management
Adaptive management involves defining explicit
management goals while highlighting key
uncertainties, carefully monitoring the effects
of management actions, and then adjusting
management activities to take the information
learned into account (CCSP 2009b).Deciding how best to address ecosystem
changes due to climate change will require a
cooperative effort by federal, state, and tribal
government agencies.
About the Strategy
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sImpacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 19
The United States has already experienced major
changes in climate and ocean acidification and
additional changes are expected over time. This
chapter discusses current and projected impacts of increasing GHGs on fish, wildlife, and plant species, and then provides more detailed information on impacts within eight major types of ecosystems
in the United States: forest, shrubland, grassland, desert, Arctic tundra, inland water, coastal, and marine ecosystems.
CH.2 Impacts of Climate Change
& Ocean Acidification
2.1 GHG-induced
Changes to the
Climate and Ocean
T he magnitude and pace of climate
changes will depend on the rate of
GHG emissions and the resulting atmo-spheric GHG levels (USGCRP 2009).
These changes are already having
significant impacts on the nation’s
natural resources, the valuable services
they provide, and the communities and
economies that depend on them. These
impacts may be driven by a combination
of GHG and climate-related factors.Increases in atmospheric and
ocean CO2
» » The concentration of CO2 in the atmo-sphere has increased by roughly 35
percent since the start of the industrial
revolution (USGCRP 2009).» » The oceans absorb large amounts of
CO2 from the atmosphere and as atmo-spheric CO2 has increased, so has the
concentration of CO2 in the oceans.
Between 1751 and 1994, surface ocean
pH is estimated to have decreased
from approximately 8.25 to 8.14,
representing an increase of almost
30 percent in “acidity” in the world’s
oceans (IPCC AR4 2007). Ocean pH is
projected to drop as much as another
0.3 to 0.4 units by the end of the
century (Orr et al. 2005, NRC 2010).
noaa
20 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
spring and summer (USGCRP 2009). In
areas of high snowpack, runoff is begin-ning earlier in the spring, causing flows
to be lower in the late summer. These
changes in precipitation combined with
increased temperatures are also expected
to increase the instance and severity of
drought, the conditions of which can
lead to an increase in the frequency and
intensity of fires. Climate change has
already been linked to an increase in
wildfire activity (Westerling et al. 2006,
Littell et al. 2009). For example, during
the extreme drought suffered by Texas
in the summer of 2011, the state experi-enced unprecedented wildfires.
Changes in the frequency and
magnitude of extreme events» » Extreme weather events such as heat
waves, flooding, and regional droughts
have become more frequent and
intense during the past 40 to 50 years
(USGCRP 2009).
» » Rain falling in the heaviest downpours
has increased approximately 20 percent
in the past century (USGCRP 2009).» » Hurricanes have increased in strength
(USGCRP 2009).
Changes in temperature can lead to a
variety of ecologically important impacts,
affecting our nation’s fish, wildlife, and
plant species. For example, a recent anal-ysis showed that many rivers and streams
in the United States have warmed by
approximately .2 °F –1.4 °F per decade
over the past 50 to 100 years, and will
continue to warm as air temperatures
rise (Kaushal et al. 2010). The increasing
magnitude and duration of high summer
water temperatures will increase thermal
stratification in rivers, lakes, and oceans,
may cause depletion of oxygen for some
periods and enhance the toxicity of
contaminants, adversely impacting
coldwater fish and other species
(Noyes et al. 2009).
Changes in timing, form, and
quantity of precipitation» » On average, precipitation in the
United States has increased approxi-mately five percent in the last 50
years, with regional trend variability
(USGCRP 2009).
» » Models suggest northern (wet) areas
of the United States will become wetter,
while southern (dry) areas of the
country will become drier
(USGCRP 2009).
As mean global temperature increases,
the capacity of the atmosphere to hold
water vapor increases, resulting in
alterations in precipitation patterns.
The combination of changes in tempera-ture and precipitation impacts water
quantity, water quality, and hydrology
on a variety of scales across ecosystems
(USGCRP 2009). These changes vary
regionally. The Northeast and Midwest
are experiencing higher precipitation and
runoff in the winter and spring, while the
arid West is seeing less precipitation in » » As a result of human activities, the
level of CO2 in the atmosphere has
been rapidly increasing. The present
level of approximately 390 parts per
million (Tans and Keeling 2011) is
more than 30 percent above its highest
level over at least the last 800,000 years
(USGCRP 2009). In the absence of
strong control measures, emissions
projected for this century would result
in a CO2 concentration approximately
two to three times the current level
(USGCRP 2009).
Changes in air and water
temperatures» » Average air temperatures have
increased more than 2 °F in the United
States over the last 50 years (more in
higher latitudes) and are projected to
increase further (USGCRP 2009).» » Global ocean temperatures rose 0.4 °F
between 1955 and 2008 (IPCC WGI
2007).
» » Arctic sea ice extent has fallen at a rate
of three to four percent per decade
over the last 30 years. Further sea ice
loss, as well as reduced snowpack,
earlier snow melt, and widespread
thawing of permafrost, are projected
(USGCRP 2009).
» » Global sea level rose by roughly eight
inches over the past century, and has
risen twice as fast since 1993 as the
rate observed over the past 100 years
(IPCC WGI 2007). Local rates of sea
level change, however, vary across
different regions of the coastal United
States. Changes in air and water
temperatures affect sea level through
thermal expansion of sea water and
melting of glaciers, ice caps, and ice
sheets.
Impacts
Climate change is predicted to increase the
number and severity of storm events.p
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sImpacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 21
what what is ...?
Non-Climate StressorsIn the context of climate adaptation, non-climate stressors refer to those current or future
pressures impacting species and natural systems that do not stem from climate change, such as
habitat loss and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution and contamination, changes in natural
disturbance, disease, pathogens, and parasites, and over-exploitation.
2.2 Existing Stressors
on Fish, Wildlife, and
Plants
Fish, wildlife, plants, and ecosystem
processes are threatened by a number
of existing stressors. Many of these
stressors will be exacerbated by climate
change, while some may reduce a species’
ability to adapt to changing conditions.
While the magnitude of climate change
is expected to vary regionally, the overall
vulnerability of some ecosystems may
be primarily driven by the severity of
these non-climate stressors. Resource
managers must consider climate impacts
in the context of multiple natural and
human-induced changes that are already
significantly affecting species, habitats,
and ecosystem functions and services,
including habitat loss, fragmentation
and degradation, invasive species, over-
use, pollution, and disease. Increasing
our understanding of how climate
change combines with multiple stres-sors to affect species, ecosystems, and
ecological processes in complex and
synergistic ways is needed to help inform
and improve adaptation planning. After
all, management will have to deal with
the cumulative impacts of all stressors
affecting a species if conservation efforts
are to be successful.
According to the USGCRP (2009),
over the past few decades, most of the
United States has been experiencing
more unusually hot days and nights,
fewer unusually cold days and nights,
and fewer frost days. Droughts are also
becoming more severe in some regions.
These types of extreme events can have
major impacts on the distribution, abun-dance, and phenology of species, as well
as on ecosystem structure and function.
Extreme storm events also may result
in intense and destructive riverine and
coastal flooding. Over the next century,
current research suggests a decrease in
the total number of extratropical storm
events but an increase in number of
intense events (Lambert and Fyfe 2006,
Bengtsson et al. 2009).
Changes in atmospheric and
ocean circulation» » Warming of the atmosphere and ocean
change the location and intensity of
winds, which affect surface ocean
circulation (Colling 2001, Blunden et
al. 2011).» » Changes in ocean circulation patterns
will change larval dispersal patterns
(Cowen and Sponaugle 2009) and the
geographic distributions of marine
species (Block et al. 2011).
Changes in atmospheric and ocean
circulation can affect both the marine
environment as well as continental
weather. By studying ocean sediment
cores, scientists can learn about paleo-climatic conditions, which will provide
insights about how dynamic and sensitive
ocean circulation can be under different
climatic conditions.
Habitat fragmentation, loss,
and degradation
Habitat fragmentation, loss, and degra-dation have been pervasive problems
for natural systems and are expected to
continue. For example, grasslands, shru-blands, and forests are being converted
to agricultural uses. Desert systems are
stressed by overgrazing and off-highway
vehicles. Tundra and marine ecosystems
are being affected by energy and mineral
exploration and extraction, and coastal
ecosystems are experiencing exten-sive development. Adding changes in
climate to habitat fragmentation will put
species with narrow geographic ranges
and specific habitat requirements at even
greater risk than they would otherwise
be. Range reductions and population
declines from synergistic impacts of
climate and non-climate stressors may be
severe enough to threaten some species
with extinction over all or significant
portions of their ranges.
For example, the Rio Grande cutthroat
trout, a candidate for listing under
the Endangered Species Act (ESA), is
primarily threatened by habitat loss, frag-mentation, and impacts from non-native
fish (FWS 2008). However, the habitat
of the Rio Grande cutthroat is likely to
further decrease in response to warmer
water temperatures, while wildfire and
drought impacts are likely to increase
in response to climate change, further
exacerbating the non-climate stressors
on the species (FWS 2011).22 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
Case Stud y
Harmful algal bloomsEcosystems and the biodiversity
they embody constitute
environmental capital on which
human well-being heavily
depends….It has become
increasingly clear, however,
that biodiversity and other
important components of the
environmental capital producing
these services are being
degraded by human activities,
and that the degradation of this
capital has already impaired
some of the associated
services, with significant adverse
impacts on society.­—
Th Th e President’s Council of Advisors on
Science and Tech nology (PCAST) 2011.
In the pastpast three decades , harmful algal
blooms (HABs) have become more frequent,
more intense, and more widespread in
freshwater, estuarine, and marine systems
(Sellner et al. 2003). These blooms are
taking a serious ecological and economic
toll. Algal blooms may become harmful
in multiple ways. For example, when the
algae die and sink, bacteria consume
them, using up oxygen in the deep water. This is a problem especially during calm
periods, when water circulation and reoxy-genation
from the atmosphere are reduced. Increases in the nutrients that fuel these
blooms have resulted in an increasing
number of massive fish kills. Another type
of harmful bloom happens when the domi-nant
species of algae such as those of
Cyanobacteria (commonly known as blue-green algae) produce potent nerve and
liver toxins that can kill fish, seabirds, sea
turtles, and marine mammals. These toxins
also sicken people and result in lost income
from fishing and tourism. The toxic HABs do
not even provide a useful food source for
the invertebrate grazers that are the base
of most aquatic food webs.
The cause of the increasing number of
blooms? One of them is climate change
(Moore et al. 2008, Hallegraeff 2010).
Warmer temperatures are boosting the
growth of harmful algae (Paerl and Huisman
2008, Jöhnk et al. 2008). More floods
and other extreme precipitation events are
increasing the runoff of phosphorus and
other nutrients from farms and other land-scapes,
fueling the algae’s growth. The
problem is only expected to get worse. By
the end of the 21st century, HABs in Puget
Sound may begin up to two months earlier
in the year and persist for one month later
compared to today—increasing the chances
that paralytic toxins will accumulate in
Puget Sound shellfish (Moore et al. 2011). In addition, the ranges of many harmful
algal species may expand, with serious
consequences. For example, a painful food-borne
illness known as ciguatera, caused
by eating fish that have dined on a toxin-producing microalga, is already becoming
much more common in many tropical areas.
Global warming will increase the range of
the microalga—and the threat of poisoning.It is possible, however, to successfully
combat some HAB problems. One key
strategy is reducing the flow of nutrients
into waterbodies. Proven steps include
adding effectively sited buffer strips beside
streams or restoring wetlands to absorb
nutrient pollution before the nutrients can
reach streams, rivers, lakes, and oceans.
For example, USDA Natural Resources
Conservation Services’ recent focus on
improving soil health through the agriculture
producers’ voluntary implementation of a
variety of Soil Health Management Systems
will serve to optimize the reduction of
sediment and nutrients to waterbodies.
In addition, better detection and warning
systems can reduce the danger to people.
Warmer temperatures are
boosting the growth and
expanding the range of harmful
algal blooms that kill wildlife,
sicken people, and result in lost
income from fishing and tourism.
noaa
Impacts
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 23
These invasions of new species are also
getting a boost from land-use changes,
the alteration of nutrient cycles, and
climate change (Vitousek et al. 1996,
Mooney and Hobbs 2000). Climate
change can shift the range of invasive
species, serve as the trigger by which
non-native species do become inva-sive, and introduce and spread invasive
species through severe weather events
such as storms and floods. Species that
have already colonized new areas in
the United States may become more
pervasive with changing conditions.
For example, some invasive species like
kudzu or cheatgrass may benefit when
CO2 concentrations increase or histor-ical fire regimes are disturbed (Dukes
and Mooney 1999). In addition, poison
ivy, another injurious species (though
native), may not only increase with
the increase in CO2, but is also likely
to increase its production of urushiol,
the oil in poison ivy that causes a rash
for many people (Ziska et al. 2007).
Early detection and a rapid coordinated
response should be employed to contain
invasive species (National Invasive
Species Council 2008).
What hat is ...?
Invasive Species
Invasive species are defined in Executive Order
13112 as alien species whose introduction
does or is likely to cause economic or
environmental harm or harm to human
health. These are typically non-indigenous or
non-native species that adversely affect the
habitats and ecosystems they invade. These
effects can be economic, environmental, and/
or ecological. In addition, some native species
can become destructive in certain ecological
contexts such as with range expansions, while
many non-native species do not negatively
affect natural systems. Today, climate change
may be redefining traditional concepts of native
and non-native, as species move into new
areas in response to changing conditions. Invasive species
Globalization and the increasing move-ment of people and goods around the
world have enabled pests, pathogens,
and other species to travel quickly over
long distances and effectively occupy new
areas. Historic invaders such as chestnut
blight, Dutch elm disease, kudzu, and
cheatgrass changed forever the char-acter of our natural, rural, and urban
landscapes. Climate change has already
enabled range expansion of some inva-sive species such as hemlock woolly
adelgid and will likely create welcoming
conditions for new invaders. The buffel-grass invasion has forever changed the
southwestern desert ecosystems by
crowding out native plants and fueling
frequent and devastating fires in areas
where fires were once rare (Betancourt
et al. 2010). Species such as zebra and
quagga mussels, Asian carp, and kudzu
already cause ecological and economic
harm, such as competition for habitat,
decreases in biodiversity, and preda-tion of native species. In Guam, the
brown tree snake (an invasive species
introduced from the South Pacific after
World War II) has caused the extirpation
of most of the native forest vertebrate
species, thousands of power outages, and
widespread loss of domestic birds and
pets (Fritts and Leasman-Tanner 2001,
Vice et al. 2005).
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Zebra mussels are particularly invasive,
disrupting ecosystems and clogging pipes
and waterways.24 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
mammals including sea otters (Miller
et al. 2010). Factors other than climate
change—such as changes in land use,
vegetation, pollution, or increase in drug-
resistant strains—may also contribute to
these range expansions. To improve our
ability to predict epidemics in wild popu-lations, it will be necessary to separate
the independent and interactive effects
of multiple climate drivers on disease
impacts (Harvell et al. 2002). Another key
concern is the entry of pathogens to fish
and wildlife via legal wildlife trade which
is not well monitored. Smith et al. (2009)
found that of the approximately 200
million individual animals imported to
the USA every year—many for the
exotic pet trade, less than 14 percent
are identified to the species level and
more than half the individuals are only
identified to the level of class.
Summary
Resource managers have worked long
and hard to reduce the impact of these
existing stressors in their management
strategies. But as climate change will likely
exacerbate these existing human-induced
pressures on natural systems, one of the
most successful strategies for increasing
the resilience of fish, wildlife, and plants
to a changing climate may be reducing
the impact of these non-climate stressors
(see Goal 7). For instance, warmer water
temperatures have already caused many
fish stocks off the northeast coast to shift
northward and/or to deeper depths over a
40-year period (Nye et al. 2009). As popu-lations move to new locations, fishing
effort adjustments may be necessary to
ensure sustainable populations.
and toxicity can be the result of direct
increases in the toxicity of some chemi-cals or increased sensitivity in the target
species. Sensitivity can be increased
due to general metabolic stress due to
environmental changes or inhibition
of physiological processes that govern
detoxification.
Pathogens
Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine
taxa are sensitive to temperature, rain-fall, and humidity making them sensitive
to climate change. The effect of climate
change may result in increasing pathogen
development and survival rates, disease
transmission, and host susceptibility.
Although most host-parasite systems are
predicted to experience more frequent
or severe disease impacts under climate
change, a subset of pathogens might
decline with warming, releasing hosts
from a source of population regulation.
Detectable effects of climate change on
disease include the geographic range
expansion of the protistan parasite
Perkinsus marinus, which causes Dermo
disease in oysters, moving up the eastern
seaboard as water temperatures have
warmed (Ford 1996, Cook et al. 1998).
Similarly, increased run-off from land has
caused the spread of Sarcocystis neurona,
a protozoan parasite in fecal waste from
the invasive Virginia opossum, resulting
in an increased infection rate in marine Over-use and destructive
harvest practices
Over-use of America’s fish, wildlife,
and plants has also had major impacts.
Some species have been lost from certain
areas, while others have gone completely
extinct. For example, overfishing of
commercial and recreational fish stocks
in some regions has had negative impacts
on fish stocks, fish assemblages, and the
communities and economies that depend
on them. Some fishing methods can
also damage habitats important to those
and other species, and bycatch can have
significant impacts on non-target species
(NMFS 2011). A variety of laws, regula-tions and management efforts exist to
address these existing stressors, including
the implementation of rebuilding plans
for over-fished fish stocks (NMFS 2009a),
the designation and protection of essen-tial fish habitats (NMFS 2009b), and
implementation of bycatch reduction
programs (NMFS 2011).
Pollution
Climate change can alter temperature,
pH, dilution rates, salinity, and other
environmental conditions that in turn
modify the availability of pollutants, the
exposure and sensitivity of species to
pollutants, transport patterns, and the
uptake and toxicity of pollutants (Noyes
et al. 2009). For example, increasingly
humid conditions could result in the
increased use of fungicides (increased
quantity), whereas altered pH can change
the availability of metals (increased
biological availability). In cases where
climate change affects transport patterns
of environmental pollutants, pollutants
may reach and accumulate in new places,
exposing biota to risk in different habi-tats. Climate change effects on uptake Many pathogens are sensitive to changes
in temperature, rainfall, and humidity, and
climate change may result in increasing
pathogen development and survival rates,
disease transmission, and host susceptibility.Kr
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Impacts
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 25
habitat type projected to decline, and
reliant on climate-driven environmental
cues that are likely to be altered under
future climate change (Glick et al. 2011a).
For these reasons, maintaining rare or
already threatened or endangered species
will present significant challenges in a
changing climate, because many of these
species have limited dispersal abilities
and opportunities (CCSP 2008c).
In addition, migratory species are likely
to be strongly affected by climate change,
as animal migration is closely connected
to climatic factors, and migratory species
use multiple habitats, sites, and resources
during their migrations. In extreme
cases, species have abandoned migration
altogether, while in other cases species
are now migrating to new areas where
they were previously only occasional
vagrants (Foden et al. 2008). However,
an ability to move and utilize multiple
habitats and resources may make some
migratory species relatively less vulner-able. Similarly, many generalist species
such as white-tailed deer or feral hogs are
likely to continue to thrive in a changing
climate (Johnston and Schmitz 2003,
Campbell and Long 2009). International
collaboration and action is critical to
increasing the resilience and adaptation
of species that cross and depend on areas
beyond U.S. borders (e.g., migratory
birds, many marine fishes, mammals, sea
turtles etc.).
Climate impacts will vary regionally and
by ecosystem across the United States
(see Figures 1 and 2). Understanding the
regional variation of impacts and how
species and ecosystems will respond is
critical to developing successful adapta-tion strategies. Examples of current and
projected climate change impacts on
ecosystems are summarized in Table 1.
2.3 Climate Change
Impacts on Fish,
Wildlife and Plants
A changing climate can affect growth
rates, alter patterns of food availability,
and shift rates and patterns of decom-position and nutrient cycling. Changes
can be driven by one or multiple climate-
related factors acting in concert or
synergistically and can alter the distribu-tion, abundance, phenology, physiology
and behavior of species, and the diversity,
structure, and function of ecosystems.
One forecast that seems certain is that
the more rapidly the climate changes,
the higher the probability of substantial
disruption and unexpected events within
natural systems (Root and Schneider
1993). The possibility of major surprises
increases the need for adaptive manage-ment—where actions and approaches are
flexible enough to be adjusted in the face
of changing conditions.
Species and populations likely to have
greater sensitivities to climate change
include those with highly specialized
habitat requirements, species already
near temperature limits or having other
narrow environmental tolerances,
currently isolated, rare, or declining
populations with poor dispersal abilities,
and groups especially sensitive to patho-gens (Foden et al. 2008). Species with
these traits will be even more vulner-able if they have a small population, a
low reproductive rate, long generation
times, low genetic diversity, or are threat-ened by other factors. For example, the
southwestern willow flycatcher may be
considered especially vulnerable as it is
currently endangered, especially sensi-tive to heat, primarily dependent on a In extreme cases, species have
abandoned migration altogether,
while in other cases species are
now migrating to new areas
where they were previously only
occasional vagrants.
There is high variability in the vulnerability and
responses of organisms to climate change,
leading to winners (i.e., species positively
impacted) and losers (i.e., species negatively
impacted).
D
ave M
enke/
usf
WS
The following sections are intended
to summarize current knowledge on
impacts of climate change on fish, wild-life, and plants within each of the major
types of ecosystems within U.S. juris-dictions. Within each ecosystem type, a
number of individual climate factors are
listed and their direct effects on biota
are discussed. However, many of the
observed impacts are the result of climate
factors acting in combination, as well
as the combination of impacts across
the ecosystem. While the individual
effects are serious in themselves, it is the
potential interactions of them—their
cumulative effects through ecosystem
processes that will likely lead to the
greatest risk, both in potential magni-tude of effects and in our uncertainty
regarding the direction and magnitude of
changes. For example, in marine systems,
changes in community composition and
food web structure resulting from the
shifts in ecological niches for individual
species are likely to be the largest influ-ence of climate change (Harley et al.
2006). Single-factor studies will likely
under-predict the magnitude of effects
(Fabry et al. 2008, Perry et al. 2010).
In addition, impacts are not confined to a
single ecosystem, nor do ecosystems have
fixed boundaries. While this Strategy describes climate change impacts to
distinct ecosystems, in actuality, vulner-ability assessments and adaptation plans
and actions should take into account
the connections between ecosystems.
For example, the mixing zone between
the land and sea is affected by climate
impacts to freshwater, coastal, and
marine ecosystems, and adaptation strat-egies will need to address these multiple
ecosystems.
Case stud y
Range shifts in a changing climate
All across the countr y, species are
already on the move in response to climate
change. For example, the range of the
Edith’s checkerspot butterfly has shifted
northward almost 60 miles, with population
extinctions seen along the southern range
(Parmesan 2006). Species such as the
red fox are increasingly able to move into
previously inhospitable northern regions,
which may lead to new competition and
pressures on the Arctic fox (Killengreen et
al. 2007). In Yosemite National Park,
half of 28 species of small mammals
(e.g., pinyon mouse, California vole, alpine
chipmunk, and others) monitored showed
substantial (500 meters on average)
upward changes in elevation, consistent
with an increase in minimum temperatures
(Moritz et al. 2008).
Species are shifting in marine environ-ments
as well. In the Northeast United
States, two-thirds of 36 examined fish
stocks shifted northward and/or to deeper
depths over a 40-year time period in
response to consistently warmer waters
(Nye et al. 2009). Similarly, in the Bering
Sea, fish have moved northward as sea
ice cover is reduced (Mueter and Litzow
2008). In the California Current ecosystem,
shifts in spatial distribution were more
pronounced in species that were commer-cially
exploited, and these species may be
more vulnerable to climate variability (Hsieh
et al. 2008).
These types of range shifts are already wide-spread—
indeed, in one analysis up to 80
percent of species analyzed were found to
have moved consistent with climate change
predictions (Parmesan and Yohe 2003).
Range shifts are not always negative: habitat
loss in one area may be offset by an increase
elsewhere such that if a species is able to
disperse, it may face little long-term risk.
However, it is clear that shifting distributions
can lead to a number of new challenges for
natural resource managers such as the arrival
of new pests, the disruption of ecological
communities and interspecies relationships,
and the loss of particularly valued species
from some areas. In addition, barriers to
movement (such as development, altered
ecosystems, or physical barriers like dams,
fences, or roads) can keep species from
reaching newly appropriate habitat. Other
barriers are naturally occurring, such as those
experienced by mountain-dwelling species that
are limited in up-slope migration by the moun-taintop,
island species limited in migration by
water depths, or aquatic and marine species
limited by land barriers. Goal 1 of the Strategy
describes the importance of providing linkages
and corridors to facilitate connectivity while
working to monitor and manage the movement
of invasive species, pests, and pathogens.
S
h
e
ll
e
y
Ell i
s
/
N
WF
Impacts
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 27
Figure 1: The distribution of the eight major
ecosystems (forests, grasslands, shrublands,
deserts, tundra, inland waters, coastal, and
marine systems) described in the Strategy.
Cropland (including cropland, hayland, vineyards,
and orchards) and improved pasture, and
developed areas are also shown. Data source: Multi-Resolution Land
Characterization (MRLC) Consortium National
Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 (continental
U.S, Hawaii), MRLC Consortium NLCD 2001
(Alaska), analysis by USGS EROS data center;
NOAA ’s Coastal Geospatial Data Project and
U.S. Maritime Zones, analysis by NOAA ; USGS
1;250,000 hydrologic units of the United States.
Figure 2: The distribution of the eight major
ecosystems (forests, grasslands, shrublands,
deserts, tundra, inland waters, coastal, and
marine systems) described in the Strategy for the
U.S. territories in the Pacific. Cropland (including
cropland, hayland, vineyards, and orchards) and
improved pasture, and developed areas are also
shown. See Figure 1 for data sources.28 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
Increased
temperatures
U.S. average
temperatures
have increased
more than
2 °F in the
last 50
years, and
are projected
to increase
further. Global
ocean tem-peratures rose
0.4 °F between
1955 and
2008.
» » Increase in
forest pest
damage
» » Changing fire
patterns» » Longer growing
season
» » Higher evapo-transpiration/
drought stress» » Increased fire
frequency may
favor grasses
over shrubs» » Increased
evapo-transpiration/
intensified
water stress» » Spread of non-
native species
» » Spread of
non-native
plants and
pests
» » Changing fire
patterns» » Elevated
water stress» » Mortality in
heat-sensitive
species
» » Possible
desert
expansion
» » Spread of
non-native
species
» » Higher water
stress» » Changing plant
communities
» » Longer growing
season
» » Invasion by
new species
» » Increased fire» » More freeze-
thaw-freeze
events
» » Changes in sub-nivean
temp. (underneath
the snow pack)
» » Expansion of
warm-water
species
» » Depleted O2
levels
» » Stress on
coldwater
species
» » Increased
disease/
parasite
susceptibility
» » More algal
blooms
» » Increase of
salt marsh/
forested
wetland
vegetation
» » Distribution
shifts
» » Phenology
changes (e.g.,
phytoplankton
blooms)
» » Altered ocean
currents and
larval transport
into/out of
estuaries
» » Coral mortality» » Distribution
shifts
» » Spread of
disease and
invasives
» » Altered ocean
currents and
larval dispersal
patterns» » New productiv-ity
patterns» » Increased
stratification
» » Lower
dissolved O2
Forests Shrublands Grasslands Deserts Tundra Inland Waters Coastal Marine Major Changes
Increasing Levels of Greenhouse gases on U.S. Ecos ystems & Species : Observed bserved & pro jected ecological changes
temperature increases
Melting
sea ice/
snowpack/
snow melt:
Arctic sea ice
extent has
fallen 3–4%
per decade
over the last
30 years, and
further loss is
predicted. In
terrestrial habi-tats,
reduced
snowpack,
earlier snow
melt, and
widespread
glacier melt
and permafrost
thawing are
predicted.
Rising sea
levels: Sea
level rose by
roughly 8" over
the past cen-tury,
and in the
last 15 years
has risen twice
as fast as the
rate observed
over the past
100 years.
Sea level will
continue to rise
more in the
future.
Changes in
circulation
patterns:
Warming of the
atmosphere
and ocean
can change
spatial and
temporal pat-terns
of water
movement and
stratification
at a variety of
scales.
» » Longer frost-
free periods» » Increase in
freeze/thaw
events can
lead to icing/
covering of
winter forage
» » Decreased sur-vival
of some
insulation-dependent
pests
» » Reduced
snowpack
leads to hydro-logical
changes
(timing and
quantity)
» » Reduced
snowpack
leads to hydro-logical
changes
(timing and
quantity)
» » Reduced
snowpack
leads to hydro-logical
changes
(timing and
quantity)
» » Thawing
permafrost/
soil
» » Hydrological
changes
» » Terrain
instability
» » Vegetation
shifts
» » Longer snow-free season» » Contaminant
releases» » Salt water
intrusion» » Loss of coastal
habitat to
erosion» » Snowpack
loss changes
the tempera-ture,
amount,
duration, dis-tribution
and
timing of runoff» » Effects on
coldwater and
other species
» » Loss of lake
ice cover
» » Inundation of
freshwater
areas» » Groundwater
contamination
» » Higher tidal/
storm surgesAltered
productivity and
distribution of
fish and other
species with
changes in
lake circulation
patterns» » Loss of anchor
ice and shore-line
protection
from storms/
waves
» » Loss of ice
habitat
» » Salinity shifts
» » Inundation
of coastal
marshes/low
islands
» » Higher tidal/
storm surges» » Geomorphology
changes
» » Loss of
nesting habitat
» » Beach erosionAltered
productivity,
survival, and/or
distribution
of fish and
other estuarine
dependent
species
» » Loss of sea
ice habitats
and dependent
species
» » Changes in
distribution
and level of
ocean
» » Changes in
ocean carbon
cycle
» » Salinity shifts
» » Loss of coral
habitats
» » Negative
impacts on
many early life
stages
Altered produc-tivity, survival,
and/or distribu-tion
of fish and
other species
(particularly
early life his-tory
stages)
USFWS/Steve Hillebrand
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization/Danilo Cedrone
Impacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 29
Changing
precipitation
patterns Pre-cipitation
has
increased
approximately
5% in the last
50 years.
Predictions
suggest histori-cally
wet areas
will become
wetter, and
dry, drier.» » Longer fire
season
» » Changes in
fire regime » » Both wetter
and drier
conditions
projected» » Dry areas
getting drier
» » Changing fire
regimes» » Invasion of non-native
grasses
and pests
» » Species range
shifting
» » Changes in
fire regime
Loss of
riparian habitat
and movement
corridors» » More icing/
rain-on-snow
events affect
animal
movements
and access
to forage
» » Increased fire» » Changing
lake levels
» » Changes in
salinity, flow» » Changes
in salinity,
nutrient, and
sediment flows
» » Changing
estuarine
conditions
may lead to
hypoxia/anoxia
» » New
productivity
patterns» » Changes
in salinity,
nutrient and
sediment flows
» » New
productivity
patterns Forests Shrublands Grasslands Deserts Tundra Inland Waters Coastal Marine Major Changes
Increasing Levels of Greenhouse gases on U.S. Ecos ystems & Species : Observed bserved & pro jected ecological changes
precipitation increases
Drying condi-tions/
drought
Extreme
weather
events, such
as heat waves
and regional
droughts, have
become more
frequent and
intense during
the past 40 to
50 years.
More extreme
rain/weather
events Rain
falling in the
heaviest
downpours
has increased
approximately
20% in the
past century.
Hurricanes
have increased
in strength. These trends
are predicted
to continue.
» » Decreased
forest pro-ductivity
and
increased
tree mortality» » Increased fire» » Increased
forest
disturbance
» » More young
forest stands» » Loss of
prairie pothole
wetlands
» » Loss of
nesting habitat
» » Increased fireMore variable
soil water
content
» » Loss of
prairie pothole
wetlands
» » Loss of
nesting habitat
» » Invasion of non-native
grasses
» » Increased fire
Changing pest
and disease
epidemiology
» » Increased
water stress » » Increased
susceptibility
to plant
diseases
Higher losses of
water through
run-off » » Moisture
stressed
vegetation
» » Loss of
wetlands
» » Fish passage
issues
More
landslides/
slumps
» » Loss of
wetlands and
intermittent
streams» » Lower summer
base flows
» » Decreased
lake levels
» » Increased
flooding
» »Widening
floodplains
» » Altered habitat» » Spread of
invasive
species/
contaminants
» » Changes
in salinity,
nutrient and
sediment flows
» » Shifting
freshwater
input to
estuaries
» » Higher waves
and storm
surges» » Loss of barrier
islands
» » Beach erosion» » New nutrient
and sediment
flows
» » Salinity shifts;
» » Increased
physical
disturbance
» » Changes
in salinity,
nutrient and
sediment flow
» » New
productivity
patterns» » Higher waves
and storm
surges» » Changes in
nutrient and
sediment flows
» » Impacts to
early life
stages
» » Increased
physical
disturbance
30 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
Increase in
atmospheric
CO2 The
concentration
of CO2 in the
atmosphere
has increased
by roughly
35% since the
start of the
industrial
revolution.» » Increase forest
productivity/
growth
in some areas» » Insect pests
may be
affected» » Changes in
species
composition
» » Spread of
exotic species
such as
cheatgrass
» » Impacts on
insect pests
» » Changes in
species
composition
» » Declines in
forage quality
from increased
C:N ratios
» » Insect pests
may be
affected » » Changes in
species
composition
» » Increased
productivity of
some plants
» » Changes in
communities
» » Increased fire
risk
» » Increased
productivity
of some plant
species
» » Changes
in plant
community
composition
» » Increased
growth of algae
and other
plants
» » Changes in
species
composition
and dominance
» » Increased
terrestrial,
emergent,
and
submerged
plant
productivity» » Increased
plant
productivity Forests Shrublands Grasslands Deserts Tundra Inland Waters Coastal Marine Major Changes
Increasing Levels of Greenhouse gases on U.S. Ecos ystems & Species : Observed bserved & pro jected ecological changes
carbon dioxide increases
Ocean
acidification
The pH of
seawater has
decreased
significantly
since 1750,
and is projected
to drop much
more by the
end of the
century as CO2
concentrations
continue to
increase.» » Declines in
shellfish and
other species
» » Impacts on
early life
stages
» » Harm to
species
(e.g., corals,
shellfish)
» » Impacts on
early life
stages
» » Phenology
changes
» » Loss of the
planktonic
food base for
critical life
stages of com-mercial
fishes
*This table is intended to provide examples of how
climate change is currently affecting or is projected
to affect U.S. ecosystems and the species they
support, including documented impacts, modeled
projections, and the best professional judgment of
future impacts from Strategy contributors. It is not
intended to be comprehensive, or to provide any
ranking or prioritization. Climate change impacts
to ecosystems are discussed in more detail in
sections 2.3.1-2.3.8, and in online ecosystem
specific background papers (see Appendix A).
**References: See IPCC AR4 2007, USGCRP 2009.
See IPCC AR4 2007, USGCRP 2009,
others in Chapter 2.
USFWS/Jim MaragosImpacts of Climate Change & Ocean Acidification | 31
2.3.1 Forest Ecosystems
Approximately 750 million acres of the
United States is forest, both public and
private (Heinz Center 2008), including
deciduous, evergreen, or mixed forests.
This includes embedded natural features
such as streams, wetlands, meadows, and
other small openings, as well as alpine
landscapes where they occur above the
treeline (see Figure 1). Changing climate
can affect forest growth, mortality,
reproduction, and eventually, forest
productivity and ecosystem carbon
storage (McNulty and Aber 2001, Butnor
et al. 2003, Thomas et al. 2004).
Atmospheric CO2
National and regional scale forest process
models suggest that in some areas,
elevated atmospheric CO2 concentra-tions may increase forest productivity
by five to 30 percent (Finzi et al. 2007).
Wetter future conditions in some
areas may also enhance the uptake of
carbon by ecosystems. However, other
regions may experience greater than 20
percent reduction in productivity due to
increasing temperatures and aridity. In
some areas of the United States, higher
atmospheric CO2 may lead to greater
forest water-use efficiency, while in other
areas, higher evapotranspiration may
result in decreased water flow (McNulty
and Aber 2001). Species in today’s
highly fragmented landscape already
face unprecedented obstacles to expan-sion and migration (Thomas et al. 2004),
which may magnify the climate change
threat to forests.
Forests are at risk from multiple
interacting stressors such as both
warmer temperatures and pests.
Temperature Increases and Water
Availability
In general, boreal type forest or taiga
ecosystems are expected to expand
northward or upward at the expense of
Arctic and alpine tundra, and forests
in the northwestern and southeastern
United States might initially expand,
although uncertainties remain (Iverson
et al. 2008). Within temperate and
boreal forests, increases in summer
temperatures typically result in faster
development and reproductive success
What hat is ...?
Forest Carbon SequestrationAccording to the U.S. Forest Service, terrestrial
carbon sequestration is the process by which
atmospheric CO2 is taken up by trees, grasses,
and other plants through photosynthesis
and stored as carbon in biomass (trunks,
branches, foliage, and roots) and soils (U.S.
Forest Service 2009). Reducing CO2 emissions
from deforestation and forest degradation
(known internationally as REDD /REDD +) and
restoring forested land cover in areas where it
has been lost could play a major role in efforts
to constrain the further increase of CO2 in the
atmosphere. Although the destruction and conversion of
tropical rainforests accounts for the majority of
the buildup in greenhouse gasses (GHGs) from
global land-use changes (IPCC AR4 2007),
forests in North America are responsible
for taking 140 to 400 million tons of carbon
from the atmosphere and storing it in organic
material each year. Because land-use changes
and human population growth are expected
to continue, the management of boreal and
other North American forests for carbon
sequestration is an important component in
adapting and responding to climate change
(Birdsey et al. 2007).In the continental United States, land-use
management can be utilized as a means of
contributing to GHG sequestration efforts. For
example, the National Wildlife Refuge System
has conducted a number of projects restoring
forested land cover in various refuges, and
there is potential for many more such projects. In addition, no-till agriculture may reduce
the emissions of CO2 from the breakdown of
organic matter in soils, and broader utilization
of this cropping technique in the American
agricultural sector could make a substantial
contribution to limiting emissions of CO2
(Paustian et al. 2000). Also, opportunities to
protect U.S. tropical forests in Hawaii, Puerto
Rico, and elsewhere as well as habitats such
as coastal marshes may provide dual benefits
of carbon sequestration and habitat protection.
of insects as well as changes in timing of
development. As a result, these insects
may interact with plant and wildlife
species in different and sometimes prob-lematic ways (Asante et al. 1991, Porter
et al. 1991). Conversely, decreases in
snow depth typically decrease overwinter
survival of insects that live in the forest
litter and rely on insulation by snow
(Ayers and Lombardero 2000). Drier
conditions in the southern United States
and elsewhere could lead to increased
fire severity and result in decreases in j
ane
p
e
ll
icc iotto
32 | National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
in check by directly killing the insects. Cold
temperatures also kept the beetle from
extending its range farther north and to higher
elevations (Amman 1974).
Warming temperatures over the last few
decades, however, has enabled more beetles
to survive the winter and to move to higher
elevations and northward to regions like
British Columbia. They have rapidly colonized
areas that were previously climatically unsuit-able
(Carroll et al. 2003). Because these new
areas had not previously experienced beetle
outbreaks, they contained mature stands
of trees, which are particularly susceptible.
In addition, warmer summer temperatures
have sped up the life cycle of the beetle,
enabling it to complete more generations per
year (Carroll et al. 2003). All these changes
have resulted in unprecedented forest death. The current outbreak in British Columbia,
for instance, is 10 times larger in area and
severity than all previous recorded outbreaks
(Kurz et al. 2008).This massive loss of trees poses major chal-lenges
to forest and ecosystem managers.
But there are steps that can be taken to
reduce the negative impacts and prevent
spreading. According to the U.S. Forest
Service, the governments of British Columbia
and Alberta, in an attempt to avoid further
eastward expansion and potential invasion of
the boreal jack pine forests, implemented an
aggressive control program to suppress beetle
populations east of the Rocky Mountains
through felling and burning infested trees.
Since its inception in 2004, the program has
managed to keep beetle populations from
expanding (RMRS 2009).
Case Stud y
Bark beetle outbreaks in warmer winters
ecosystem carbon stocks (Aber 2001,
Westerling et al. 2006, Bond-Lamberty
et al. 2007). Similarly, prolonged drought
may lead to decreases in primary produc-tion and forest stand water use (Van
Mantgem et al. 2009). Drought can also
alter decomposition rates of forest floor
organic materials, impacting fire regimes
and nutrient cycles (Hanson and Weltzin
2000). Changes in temperature, precipita-tion, soil moisture, and relative humidity
can also affect the dispersal and coloni-zation success of other forest pathogens,
which may impact forest ecosystem
biodiversity among other important
indicators of forest health (Brasier 1996,
Lonsdale and Gibbs 1996, Chakraborty
1997, Houston 1998).
From British Columbia to New
Mexico , forests are being devastated at
unprecedented levels by an epidemic—
caused by a tiny insect called the mountain
pine beetle. The beetles lay their eggs
under the bark of trees, and in the process,
infect the trees with fungus. When the
eggs hatch, the combination of fungal
infection and feeding by the beetle larvae
kill the trees.
Bark beetles and pine trees have co-existed
for eons. Regular outbreaks of beetles
causing forest death are normal, but
nothing like those now being seen. So
why has the beetle suddenly become so
destructive? In the past, sub-zero winter
temperatures kept beetle populations
Disturbances and Extreme Events
Disturbances such as wildfires, wind
storms, and pest outbreaks are important
to forests. Climate change is anticipated
to alter disturbance frequency, inten-sity, duration, and timing, and may cause
extreme changes in forest structure and
processes (Dale et al. 2000, Running
2008). For example, predictive models
suggest that the seasonal fire severity
rating will increase by 10 to 50 percent
over most of North America, which has
the potential to overshadow the direct
influences of climate on species distri-bution and migration (Flannigan et
al. 2000). Certain forest systems, such
as ponderosa pine forests, may be less
resilient to fire disturbance because of
the laddering effect young trees, which
developed during periods of infrequent
fire occurrence, have on increasing the
severity of fires (Climate Impacts Group
2004). Climate-related changes in fire
incidence may also increase associated
mercury emissions from fires in boreal
forests, presenting a growing threat
to aquatic habitats and northern food
chains (Turetsky et al. 2006). Friedli et
al. (2009) suggest that a warming climate
in boreal regions, which contain large
carbon and mercury pools, will increas-ingly contribute to local and global
mercury emissions due to more frequent
and larger, more intense wildfires.
While projections of hurricane response
to climate change are still uncertain,
models agree on a possible increase in
the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes
(USGCRP 2009). If hurricane intensity
increase, then more forests could be set
back to earlier successional stages in areas
susceptible to hurricanes (Lugo 2000).
te
rry rry
t
ys
on
Impacts
| 33
forage available for grazing wildlife, as
well as the livestock carrying capacity
on working lands. Climate changes in
shrubland areas can be complex: in areas
where both a reduction in total annual
rainfall and increased intensity of indi-vidual precipitation events are projected,
wet areas are likely to become wetter
while dry areas may become drier. More
intense rainfall events without increased
total precipitation can lead to lower
and more variable soil water content,
and reduce above-ground net primary
production. However, some regions,
such as the Great Basin, are projected to
become both warmer and possibly wetter
over the next few decades (Larrucea and
Brussard 2008).
2.3.3 Grassland Ecosystems
Grasslands, including agricultural and
grazing lands, cover about 285 million
acres of the United States, and occur
mostly between the upper Midwest to
the Rocky Mountains and from Canada
to the central Gulf Coast (CEC 1997,
Heinz Center 2008). Grassland vegeta-tion is very diverse, and includes many
grass species mixed with a wide variety
of wildflowers and other forbs. Grassland
types include tallgrass, shortgrass, and
mixed-grass systems. They also have
embedded features such as the shallow,
ephemeral wetlands known as prairie
potholes and playas, which are open-ings in the prevailing grassland matrix
that dot the Great Plains (see Figure 1).
Grassland function is tied directly to
temperature, precipitation and soil mois-ture; therefore, climate change is likely
to lead to shifts in the structure, func-tion, and composition of this system.
Grasslands also store significant amounts
of carbon, primarily in the soil (IPCC
WGII 2007).
warmer and drier conditions may favor
plants that utilize a different photosyn-thetic system (C4).
Temperature Increases
Since 1980, western U.S. winter tempera-tures have been consistently higher than
the previous long-term averages, and
average winter snow packs have declined
(McCabe and Wolock 2009). Higher
temperatures associated with climate
change are likely to intensify water stress
through increased potential evapotrans-piration (Hughes 2003). The increase in
temperature also further benefits invasive
cheatgrass, which thrives in hot, open,
fire-prone environments and crowds out
native shrubland species, and may alter
fire regimes. These types of changes in
community composition may impact
shrubland species like the greater sage
grouse (Aldridge et al. 2008).
Water Availability
As a result of warmer temperatures, the
onset of snow runoff in the Great Basin is
currently 10 to 15 days earlier than it was
50 years ago. This has resulted in signifi-cant impacts on the downstream use
of the water (Ryan et al. 2008), though
periods of higher than average precipi-tation have helped to offset declining
snow packs (McCabe and Wolock 2009).
Changes in snow packs can reduce the
2.3.2 Shrubland Ecosystems
Shrublands of various types and sizes
occur throughout the United States
and total approximately 480 million
acres (Heinz Center 2008) (see Figure
1). Shrublands are landscapes domi-nated by woody shr