2001 waterfowl breeding population survey New York, eastern Ontario, and southern Quebec

              London
Muskoka
Killarney
Kingston
Watertown
Ottawa
Mussena
Sherbrooke
Quebec City
Rivier-Du-Loup
54
52
56
55
53
NEW YORK, EASTERN ONTARIO, and
SOUTHERN QUEBEC
Waterfowl Breeding Population Survey
2001
2001 Waterfowl Breeding Population Survey New York, Eastern Ontario,
and Southern Quebec
April/May 2001
Strata Surveyed
52,53,54,55,56
Survey Conducted and Data Supplied by
United States Fish & Wildlife Service
Aerial Crews
Fixed Wing:
Pilot/Observer Mark D. Koneff, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Observer Charles Kitchens-Hayes, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Helicopter:
Pilot Doug Holtby, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources
Observer Melody Miller, Indiana Department of Natural Resources
Abstract
This survey has been conducted for the past twelve years in conjunction with the Black Duck
Joint Venture to provide waterfowl breeding population estimates for New York, Southern
Ontario, and Southern Quebec. In contrast to recent warm and dry winters, this region
experienced cold temperatures and significant snowfall during the winter of 2000-2001, resulting
in generally good breeding habitat conditions. A warm and relatively dry spring provided
conditions favorable for waterfowl production. Waterfowl populations were greater than 2000
levels, but remained significantly below long-term averages. Dabblers population estimates over
all were 27.0% above year 2000, but 41.0% below the long-term average. Divers were 80%
above 2000 estimates but 16.6% below the long-term average. Canada geese increased sharply,
up 862.8% from 2000 and 261.8% from the long-term average. Large migrating flocks of geese
were observed in the St. Lawrence Valley and were primarily responsible for this increase.
Methods
The procedures followed in conducting this survey are detailed in the Standard Operating
Procedures for Aerial Waterfowl Breeding Ground Population and Habitat Survey, Section III,
revised April 1987. The fixed wing pilot has surveyed these strata the 4 consecutive years. Both
the fixed wing and helicopter observers, while new to this survey region, had considerable
previous experience in aerial waterfowl surveys. A Partenavia P68 Observer aircraft was used
for the survey. Visibility corrections were obtained using Bayesian updating procedures and
from an ongoing helicopter visibility bias correction study being conducted in eastern Canada
This was the first year that a helicopter has been used in this survey area to assess visibility bias.
Since 1998, waterfowl and habitat data have been collected using an onboard digital recording
system designed to attribute each waterfowl observation with a geographic location recorded in
latitude/longitude. During data transcription, each observation is associated with pertinent
information (i.e., stratum, transect, and segment, time, weather conditions, and geographic
location).
Weather and Habitat Conditions
Stratum 52: Stratum 52 lies east of the Georgian Bay, north of Lake Ontario, south of the
Ottawa River, and west of the line running from Ottawa to Kingston, Ontario. Topography
varies from hilly in the north to rolling in the south. The northern part of the stratum is primarily
mixed forest, except along the Ottawa River where some farming occurs. The southern half of
the stratum is a mixture of woodland and agriculture. Many small to moderate size lakes are
found throughout the area, with some large lakes connected by small streams. Small reservoirs
and farm ponds are present. Water levels in this area are relatively stable.
Stratum 53: This is a small stratum located southeast of Ottawa, bounded on the north by the
Ottawa River and on the south by the St. Lawrence River. The area is relatively flat with some
rolling terrain along the west boundary. Agriculture is the primary land use of this area and it
has been extensively cleared and drained. The remaining habitat consists of a few marshes,
small streams and drainage ditches. Water conditions are variable in this area depending on the
winter and spring precipitation.
Stratum 54: Stratum 54 includes much of the southwestern Ontario peninsula, bounded in the
north by Georgian Bay, in the west by Lake Huron and Lake St. Clair, and in the south by Lake
Erie. The terrain is flat in the south to rolling in the north. Agriculture predominates throughout
this stratum. Significant wetland drainage has occurred. In southern portions of the stratum,
woodlands are largely restricted to small lots and riparian areas. Deciduous woods transition to
mixed forest in the north and forested area increases. Habitat in this stratum includes lake shore
marshes, numerous field drainage ditches, small marshes and wooded wetlands, and riparian
zones of streams. Water conditions are heavily influenced by winter and spring precipitation in
this stratum.
Stratum 55: This stratum encompasses the St. Lawrence lowlands of New York, bounded by
Lake Champlain to the east, the Adirondacks to the south, Lake Ontario to the west, and the St.
Lawrence River to the north. The terrain varies from rolling to moderate in the south, to flat and
slightly rolling to the north. Habitat consists of hardwood forests interspersed with streams,
lakes, marshes, bogs, and wooded wetlands with many small marshes along the St. Lawrence
River. Agriculture consists primarily of dairy operations and small farms. Some timber
harvesting occurs. Water conditions are relatively stable in this stratum.
Stratum 56: This stratum is located in southern Quebec. The boundary lies just south of
Montreal and extends to Quebec City, the west end of the Gaspe Peninsula, down to Maine, New
Hampshire, Vermont, and New York borders, and back to Montreal. This area is flat in the west
trending toward rolling and mountainous in the east and southeast. Habitat in the west consists
drainage ditches, farm ponds, small streams, and some tidal marsh along the St. Lawrence River.
Western portions of this area are largely dominated by agricultural land-uses. Forestry and
mining are important industries in eastern and southeastern portions of the stratum. To the east
and southeast, along the U.S. border, habitat consists of small streams, small lakes and wooded
wetlands, bogs, and some larger lakes. Water conditions in this stratum, particularly in lowland
areas to the west, are sensitive to winter and spring precipitation.
For the past four years, dryer and warmer than normal conditions have prevailed throughout this
survey area. The result of these conditions has been reduced stream flows and lower lake levels.
Great Lakes water levels have dropped several feet during this time period. Inland lake levels
were also reduced in some areas resulting in the degradation of nesting and brood rearing
habitats. The winter of 2000-2001 saw a return to more normal, colder temperatures, and good
snow accumulations. Wetland and lake levels were improved in the spring of 2001. Great
Lakes levels remain low. Relatively warm and dry spring weather, in conjunction with improved
wetland conditions, should favor waterfowl production in 2001.
Table 1. Survey design for Ontario, New York, and Quebec, May 2001
STRATUM
52 53 54 55 56
Survey Design
Square Miles in Stratum
28,265
4,259
12,245
4,149
21,721
Linear Miles Sampled in Stratum 720 180 666 216 936
Number of Transects in Stratum 4 4 9 5 10
Number of Segments in Stratum 40 10 37 12 52
Expansion Factor 157.028 94.644 73.544 76.833 92.825
Current Year Coverage
Square Miles in Stratum
28,265
4,259
12,245
4,149
21,721
Linear Miles in Sample 720 180 666 216 936
Number of Transects in Sample 4 4 9 5 10
Number of Segments in Sample 40 10 37 12 52
Expansion Factor 157.028 94.644 73.544 76.833 92.825
Breeding Populations
Waterfowl populations were greater than 2000 levels, but remained significantly below long-term
averages. Dabbler population estimates over all were 27.0% above year 2000, but 41.0%
below the long-term average. The mallard estimate increased 44.9% over year 2000, but were
19.6% below the long-term average. Black ducks populations were 2.6% below, but similar, to
year 2000 estimates. Black ducks remain 30.0% below the long-term average. Black ducks
were noticeably less abundant in eastern portions of the crew area, particularly in stratum 56.
Divers were 80% above 2000 estimates but 16.6% below the long-term average. Ring-necked
ducks 23.6%, bufflehead 378.1%, and goldeneye 183.7% estimates increased in year 2000.
Ring-necks remain 46.1% below long-term averages while bufflehead and goldeneye were
40.3% and 32.5% above the long-term, respectively. Canada geese increased sharply, up
862.8% from 2000 and 261.8% from the long-term average. Large migrating flocks of geese
were observed in the St. Lawrence Valley and were primarily responsible for this increase.
Table 2. Status of waterfowl breeding population estimates (thousands, adjusted for visibility bias) by species and stratum with
comparisons against the previous year and the long-term mean for Eastern Ontario and New York.
Stratum (2001) % Change From
Species/Ponds 52 53 54 55 56 2001 Total 2000 Total 1990-2000
Mean
2000 1990-2000
Mean
Ducks
Dabblers
Mallard 43.3 8.5 46.0 13.0 27.8 138.4 95.5 172.3 44.9% -19.6%
Am. black duck 15.0 1.2 9.6 3.3 11.1 40.1 41.2 57.3 -2.6% -30.0%
Gadwall 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 2.8 7.7 -59.6% -85.3%
Am. wigeon 1.4 0.0 3.3 0.0 4.2 9.0 3.9 18.9 130.6% -52.5%
Am. green-winged teal 7.6 1.0 1.6 0.0 18.4 28.6 22.1 46.6 29.7% -38.6%
Blue-winged teal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 61.4 -100.0% -100.0%
N. shoveler 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.9 -- -45.2%
N. pintail 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 -- -100.0%
Subtotal 67.3 10.7 61.0 16.3 62.6 217.8 171.5 368.8 27.0% -41.0%
Divers
Redhead 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.5 2.8 400.4% -19.7%
Canvasback 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 -- -100.0%
Scaups 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 13.1 9.1 -97.7% -96.7%
Ring-necked duck 14.0 0.6 7.5 0.5 4.6 27.1 21.9 50.3 23.6% -46.1%
Goldeneyes 30.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 33.6 11.9 25.4 183.7% 32.5%
Bufflehead 15.6 9.6 4.9 0.0 4.9 35.0 7.3 24.9 378.1% 40.3%
Ruddy Duck 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 -- -100.0%
Subtotal 60.4 10.2 14.7 0.8 12.3 98.3 54.6 117.8 80.0% -16.6%
Miscellaneous
Oldsquaw 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 1.3 -100.0% -100.0%
Eiders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -- -100.0%
Scoters 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 -- -100.0%
Mergansers 9.4 0.0 1.0 0.6 2.4 13.3 24.3 88.3 -45.2% -84.9%
Subtotal 9.4 0.0 1.0 0.6 2.4 13.3 34.3 90.6 -61.2% -85.3%
Total Ducks 137.0 20.9 76.6 17.7 77.2 329.4 260.4 577.3 26.5% -42.9%
Canada Goose 64.6 1067.2 70.9 99.4 401.0 1703.0 176.9 470.6 862.8% 261.8%
Am. coot 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 -- -100.0%
Appendix 1. Long-term trend in adjusted waterfowl breeding population estimates (thousands) for Eastern
Ontario and New York.
Species/Ponds 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Ducks
Dabblers
Mallard 173.0 122.5 265.2 252.6 170.0 184.9 226.7 171.3 118.0 115.5
Am. black duck 103.0 65.7 73.5 49.2 59.2 89.3 39.9 38.9 39.0 31.7
Gadwall 11.2 7.4 3.6 1.9 0.0 30.6 6.6 2.7 4.0 13.7
Am. wigeon 28.8 35.1 6.7 9.4 14.6 13.8 17.0 11.0 4.3 62.8
Am. green-winged teal 28.8 21.7 19.2 22.0 106.9 39.0 64.0 34.4 16.7 138.4
Blue-winged teal 126.2 39.9 40.9 282.4 78.9 53.6 16.1 14.9 14.6 1.6
N. shoveler 0.7 2.2 0.0 1.0 1.1 0.5 2.4 0.0 0.0 2.4
N. pintail 25.6 3.4 2.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 3.5 0.0 2.4
Subtotal 497.2 297.8 411.1 618.9 431.7 413.0 374.2 276.6 196.7 368.5
Divers
Redhead 4.7 3.6 0.7 4.5 5.8 6.1 1.8 3.0 0.8 0.0
Canvasback 3.3 4.4 1.5 3.0 4.6 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Scaups 10.3 3.4 7.2 5.0 15.2 4.7 6.3 20.7 12.7 1.5
Ring-necked duck 50.4 44.9 105.9 63.7 98.8 86.1 21.7 36.6 7.2 16.0
Goldeneyes 14.0 20.5 99.6 22.8 10.6 2.8 6.4 15.4 48.4 26.7
Bufflehead 58.4 40.2 42.4 8.9 26.6 17.0 25.6 3.3 25.2 19.1
Ruddy Duck 0.0 12.0 0.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 12.2 0.0 4.5 5.6
Subtotal 141.2 129.0 257.2 112.9 161.6 118.8 73.9 79.0 98.9 68.9
Miscellaneous
Oldsquaw 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
Eiders 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Scoters 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2
Mergansers 69.5 106.8 61.3 55.4 272.1 154.4 150.7 35.0 6.1 35.9
Subtotal 69.5 107.5 62.2 59.3 272.1 159.3 154.4 35.0 6.1 37.0
Total Ducks 707.9 534.3 730.5 791.0 865.4 691.2 602.5 390.6 301.7 474.4
Canada Goose 364.5 854.0 145.5 221.8 279.4 325.1 123.4 85.1 128.1 2473.3
Am. coot 3.1 19.0 6.1 5.1 2.4 5.2 15.6 0.0 0.8 0.0
Species/Ponds 2000 2001
Ducks
Dabblers
Mallard 95.5 138.4
Am. black duck 41.2 40.1
Gadwall 2.8 1.1
Am. wigeon 3.9 9.0
Am. green-winged teal 22.1 28.6
Blue-winged teal 6.1 0.0
N. shoveler 0.0 0.5
N. pintail 0.0 0.0
Subtotal 171.5 217.8
Divers
Redhead 0.5 2.3
Canvasback 0.0 0.0
Scaups 13.1 0.3
Ring-necked duck 21.9 27.1
Goldeneyes 11.9 33.6
Bufflehead 7.3 35.0
Ruddy Duck 0.0 0.0
Subtotal 54.6 98.3
Miscellaneous
Oldsquaw 10.0 0.0
Eiders 0.0 0.0
Scoters 0.0 0.0
Mergansers 24.3 13.3
Subtotal 34.3 13.3
Total Ducks 260.4 329.4
Canada Goose 176.9 1703.0
Am. coot 0.0 0.0
Strata 52-56 Mergansers
Population
0
100000
200000
300000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Mallard
Population
90000
100000
110000
120000
130000
140000
150000
160000
170000
180000
190000
200000
210000
220000
230000
240000
250000
260000
270000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 American black duck
Population
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Gadwall
Population
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 American wigeon
Population
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 American green-winged teal
Population
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
130000
140000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Blue-winged teal
Population
0
100000
200000
300000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Northern shoveler
Population
0
1000
2000
3000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Northern pintail
Population
0
10000
20000
30000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Redhead
Population
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Canvasback
Population
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Scaups
Population
0
10000
20000
30000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Ring-necked duck
Population
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Goldeneyes
Population
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Bufflehead
Population
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Scoters
Population
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Ruddy Duck
Population
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Canada Goose
Population
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 American coot
Population
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Dabblers
Population
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Divers
Population
0
100000
200000
300000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Miscellaneous
Population
0
100000
200000
300000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Strata 52-56 Total Ducks
Population
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
Year
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001