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The 2005 North American Trumpeter Swan Survey U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service April 2006 Compiled by T. J. Moser U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Division of Migratory Bird Management Denver, Colorado The 2005 North American Trumpeter Swan Survey A Cooperative North American Survey Abstract: The abundance and productivity of North American trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator) was assessed during the 2005 quinquennial trumpeter swan survey, May 2005-January 2006. The continental estimate of trumpeter swan abundance in 2005 was 34,803, a record-high level since comprehensive surveys were initiated in 1968, and 47% higher than the estimate during the 2000 survey. Abundance estimates for each of North America’s 3 recognized trumpeter swan populations also reached record-high levels during the 2005 survey. Survey biologists estimated that the Pacific Coast Population included 24,928 swans, 42% more than during the 2000 survey. The abundance estimate of Rocky Mountain Population swans during the 2005 survey was 5,228 birds, 43% higher than in 2000. The 2005 survey estimate for the Interior Population was 4,647 swans, an increase of 91% from the estimate in 2000. The age distributions of all swan populations during the 2005 survey ranged from 27% to 31% cygnets, and were higher than the 2000 percentage for each population. We present estimates of average annual growth rates and indices of production for these populations and their component flocks. INTRODUCTION Quinquennial trumpeter swan surveys are intended to provide comprehensive assessments of swan abundance and indices of swan productivity throughout the entire breeding ranges of the 3 recognized North American populations: the Pacific Coast, Rocky Mountain, and Interior populations (Fig. 1). These systematic and cooperative surveys of North American trumpeter swans were first conducted in 1968, repeated in 1974-75, and continued at 5-year intervals thereafter (1980-2005). Survey coverage was expanded in 1985 and considered comprehensive, but survey coverage has continued to change in response to population restoration efforts and changes in swan distribution. This report summarizes results of the 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey and compares these data with previous quinquennial survey results (Caithamer 2001). METHODS Cooperating observers were requested to assess the abundance and productivity of wild trumpeter swans that were present during the breeding season throughout each survey region. Late summer was the targeted survey period, but some regions delayed efforts until winter to allow swans to congregate from dispersed breeding areas within regions. No efforts were directed at surveying captive swans in 2005. Survey biologists counted trumpeter swans in each of 2 age classes (cygnet or adult/subadult), and adult/subadult swans were separated into 5 social groups (paired with cygnets, paired without cygnets, single without cygnets, single with cygnets, or members of flocks). All population estimates were treated as though they were measured without error. Trends in abundance estimates for populations and flocks over the long term (generally 1968-2005) and the last 2 survey periods (2000 and 2005) were calculated through regression of the natural logarithm of survey estimates on year. The estimated annual growth rates (regression slopes) from the long-term regressions were tested for equality to zero (t-test). The alpha level (P value) used for determining statistical significance was 0.10. In some regions, wild swan populations have been supplemented through restoration releases; in these cases growth rates may overestimate intrinsic growth. Mean brood sizes were calculated by weighting averages from various reporting areas. Temporal trends in the age distributions of flocks were evaluated through linear regression. Adult/subadult (“white”) swans for which social status was not determined were excluded from calculation of social group distribution. Population and flock terminology in this report follows population-specific management plans (Subcommittee on the Interior Population of Trumpeter Swans 1998, Pacific Flyway Council 2002, 2006). Most trumpeter swan reporting regions named in this report can be adequately located using their geographic titles and Figure 1, but additional descriptions for some regions are provided here. Tri-state Area Flock swans nest in southeastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, and western Wyoming; Canadian 1 Rocky Mountain Population swans nest in this population’s range in Canada; and swans in Other U.S. flocks nest within the remaining Rocky Mountain Population range. High Plains Interior Population swans nest from the Rocky Mountain Population’s eastern boundary to the western borders of Ontario, Minnesota, and Iowa; Mississippi and Atlantic Flyway swans nest from the last-mentioned borders eastward. During 2005, managers of Pacific Coast Population trumpeter swans in the Yukon and British Columbia region reconciled historical datasets which prompted slight revision (<4 swans per year) of PCP abundance estimates from previous quinquennial surveys. The reconciled estimates are included in this report and therefore differ slightly from those within previous quinquennial reports. The 2005 trumpeter swan survey was conducted by numerous individuals and agencies throughout North America between 15 May 2005 and 7 January 2006 (see Appendix A for these dates and other 2005 raw data). The median starting and ending dates for the 2005 survey were 24 August and 14 September, respectively. For comparison, the 2000 survey was conducted 15 April to 25 January with median starting and ending dates of 20 August and 11 September, respectively. Most areas were surveyed aerially or by a network of ground observers similar to efforts during the 2000 survey with 1 exception. Due to warm temperatures and wide dispersal of swans in Minnesota during 2005, the formal survey was not conducted. Minnesota estimates for the 2005 survey were based on periodic ground counts from spring through mid-winter. Generally, survey results in 2005 were believed to be complete censuses, except for northern British Columbia and the Yukon Territory where swan estimates were based on stratified random sample of mapsheets across the probable range of trumpeter swans. RESULTS North American Trumpeter Swans During the 2005 trumpeter swan survey the estimated abundance of all North American trumpeter swans was 34,803, 47% higher than the estimate from the 2000 survey (23,647), and a record-high level since surveys began in 1968 (Tables 1-2, Fig. 2). These data suggest North America’s trumpeter swan population increased an average of 7.7% each year during 2000-2005. The estimated rate of growth during 1968-2005 was +6.0% per year (P < 0.0001, Table 2). Abundance estimates from the 2005 survey reached record-high levels for each of the 3 recognized populations (see population-specific sections below). During the 2005 survey 28% of all trumpeter swans observed were cygnets, the third highest proportion on record (1968-2005, Table 3), and a higher proportion than observed during the 2000 survey (22%). Analysis indicated no long-term trend in the percentage of the population comprised of cygnets (Fig. 3, P = 0.33). The average brood size in 2005 was 3.10 cygnets, slightly higher than the 2000 value of 3.0. Survey observers in 2005 indicated trumpeter swans had expanded their range since the 2000 survey in all 4 directions from previously reported range in Alaska, along the Mackenzie River in the Northwest Territories, and to small areas adjacent to the previous range in Alberta, western Wyoming, eastern Saskatchewan, western Manitoba, and southeastern Michigan (Fig. 1). Pacific Coast Population (PCP) Abundance estimates of all PCP swans reached a record-high level of 24,928 in 2005, 42% higher than in 2000 (Tables 1-2, Fig. 4). Estimated annual growth rates during 2000-2005 and 1968-2005 averaged +7.0% and +5.8%, respectively (Table 2). In 2005, 27% percent of PCP swans observed were cygnets, higher than in 2000 (19%) and slightly higher than the 1968-2000 average of 26% (Table 3). Analysis showed little indication of a long-term trend in the age distribution of the population (Fig. 3, P = 0.19). Average brood size for PCP swans in 2005 was 3.1 cygnets, somewhat higher than in 2000 (2.8). The abundance estimate of the Alaska flock in 2005 was 23,692 swans, a record-high level and 38% 2 higher than in 2000 (Tables 1-2). The 2005 estimate of Yukon and northwest British Columbia flock swans was 1,236 (95% CI = 1,114–1,358), also a record high, and 211% higher than in 2000. Additional flock information is provided in Tables 1-4. Rocky Mountain Population (RMP) The 2005 survey yielded an estimate of 5,228 RMP trumpeter swans, which was 43% higher than the 2000 estimate, and the highest estimate on record (Tables 1-2, Fig. 5). Estimated average annual growth rates during 2000-2005 and 1968-2005 were +7.1% and +5.4%, respectively. The proportion of observed swans that were cygnets in 2005 was 30%, the same proportion as in 2000, and higher than the 1968- 2000 average of 25% (Table 3). Linear regression indicates an increasing trend in the percentage of cygnets in the RMP population during 1968-2005 (+0.33% per year, P = 0.07, Fig. 3). Brood sizes in 2005 averaged 3.0 cygnets, slightly lower than in 2000 (3.1). During the 2005 survey, the RMP Canadian flocks were estimated to include 4,718 swans, 48% more than in 2000, and the most recorded since 1968 (Tables 1-2). In 2005, there were 453 swans counted in the Tri-state Area Flock, 6% more than in 2000, but fewer than the peak count of 589 in 1990. Although swan abundance in the Tri-state Area Flock remains below the levels of 1968-1990, quinquenniel survey abundance estimates have increased consecutively from 1995 through 2005 (Table 2). The 2005 survey estimated a population of 57 swans in Other U.S. flocks, 1 bird more than observed in 2000. Other U.S flocks are the only regional group that showed significant decline during the 1968-2005 period (-2.6% per year, P = 0.02). Additional flock information is provided in Tables 1-4. Interior Population (IP) The 2005 survey indicated a record-high estimate of 4,647 IP swans, an increase of 91% over the 2000 estimate (Tables 1-2, Fig. 6). The IP exhibited the highest average annual growth rate of the 3 trumpeter swan populations, +13.0% during 2000-2005, and +11.7% during 1968-2005. In 2005, 31% percent of IP swans observed were cygnets, similar to the proportion in 2000 and the 1968-2000 average (30% and 29%, respectively; Table 3). The age distribution of the population indicated no long-term trend in the proportion of cygnets (Fig. 3, P = 0.67). Average brood size in 2005 was 3.2 cygnets, lower than the value of 3.6 from the 2000 survey. The 2005 abundance estimate for Mississippi and Atlantic Flyway trumpeter swans was 4,176 swans, 103% higher than in 2000, and the highest estimate on record. The High Plains flock estimate was 471 swans in 2005, 27% higher than in 2000, and a record-high estimate. Additional flock information is provided in Tables 1-4. DISCUSSION Abundance estimates for all North American trumpeter swans and for each of the 3 recognized populations reached record-high levels during the 2005 survey. Estimated average annual growth rates for all populations exceeded 5% (range: 5.4-11.7%) over the long term and 7% (range: 7.0-7.7%) between 2000 and 2005 (Table 2). Additionally, abundance estimates for each of the 7 swan flocks was higher during the 2005 survey than in 2000, although increases for the Tri-state Area and Other U.S. RMP flocks were small. With the exception of Tri-state Area and Other U.S. RMP flocks, estimated annual growth rates for flocks exceeded 4.8% (range: 4.8-23.7%) over the long term and 4.9% (range: 4.9-22.7%) between 2000 and 2005. These growth rates include the effects of swan releases associated with restoration efforts. Only the Tri-state Area and Other U.S. flocks of the RMP exhibited negative growth over the long-term period and showed only slight growth between 2000 and 2005. A more detailed evaluation of population status of these flocks is available (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2005, 2006). Comparison of abundance estimates from the 2005 quinquennial trumpeter swan survey with numerical goals contained within current management plans for these populations indicate that substantial 3 accomplishments have been made (Subcommittee on the Interior Population of Trumpeter Swans 1998, Pacific Flyway Council 2002, 2006). The PCP objective is to maintain “not less than 25,000 swans” as measured by quinquennial surveys, compared with the 2005 estimate of 24,929 swans. The RMP management plan goal is “a 5% average annual growth in the number of wintering birds.” The short-term and long-term growth rates from the summer/fall quinquennial survey data (7.1% and 5.4%, respectively) would appear to support that goal. However, the RMP plan also contains several flock-specific objectives which have not yet been achieved. The number of IP swans exceeded the management plan’s principal population objective of “at least 2,000 birds and 180 successful breeding pairs by 2001” by the time of the 2000 quinquennial survey (2,430 swans and 203 broods [Caithamer 2001]). While significant accomplishments have been made towards reaching goals for all 3 populations, it is noted that each management plan includes additional goals or objectives that have not been achieved. For all 3 North American trumpeter swan populations, growth rates during 2000-2005 exceeded the average growth rates during 1968-2005 (Table 2) and 1968-2000 (6.0%, 5.0%, and 10.9% for the PCP, RMP, and IP, respectively). No population exhibited a significant decline in the proportion of cygnets composing the surveyed population over the period of survey (P-values for any negative trends were greater than 0.19). Notwithstanding challenges regarding swan habitats and migratory behaviors, prospects for continued growth of North America’s trumpeter swan populations appear promising. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Data for the 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey were collected by numerous individuals employed by many agencies, volunteers, and citizens who reported incidental swan observations. The compiler apologizes for any cooperators omitted from Appendix B. Regional surveys were coordinated or summarized by B. Bales, G. Beyersbergen, B. Bortner, A. Breault, S. Comeau-Kingfisher, B. Conant, J. Cornely, J. Dubovsky, D. Groves, C. Harris, J. Hawkings, D. Hoffman, T. Hogrefe, J. Johnson, S. Kittelson, H. Lumsden, S. Matteson, D. Sherman, and B. Swift. The cooperation of Canadian Wildlife Service and the Trumpeter Swan Society was integral to survey completion. R. Oates, R. Trost, and B. Millsap helped secure and administer Fish and Wildlife Service funding for the 2005 survey. The cover photograph was provided by J. Cornely. J. Dubovsky, M. Koneff, R. Shea, and K. Wilkins provided helpful comments on earlier drafts of this report. LITERATURE CITED Caithamer, D. F., compiler. 2001. Trumpeter swan population status, 2000. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Washington, D.C. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2005. Trumpeter swan survey of the Rocky Mountain Population, U.S. Breeding Segment – Fall 2005. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service report. Denver, Colorado. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2006. Trumpeter swan survey of the Rocky Mountain Population – Winter 2006. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service report. Denver, Colorado. Subcommittee on the Interior Population of Trumpeter Swans. 1998. Mississippi and Central Flyway Management Plan for the Interior Population of Trumpeter Swans. Mississippi and Central Flyway Councils [c/o U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service]. Twin Cities, Minnesota. Pacific Flyway Council. 2006. Pacific Flyway management plan for the Pacific Coast Population of Trumpeter Swans. Pacific Flyway Study Committee [c/o U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service]. Portland, Oregon. Pacific Flyway Council. 2002. Pacific Flyway management plan for the Rocky Mountain Population of Trumpeter Swans. Pacific Flyway Study Committee [c/o U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service]. Portland, Oregon. 4 Table 1. Demographics of Pacific Coast, Rocky Mountain, and Interior populations of trumpeter swans during the 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey. Mean brood size2 Population and flock Total swans White swans1 Cygnets % cygnets Broods x n Pacific Coast Population Alaska 23,692 17,245 6,447 27 2,084 3.09 2,084 Yukon and northwestern British Columbia 1,236 867 369 30 100 3.74 72 Total Pacific Coast Population 24,928 18,112 6,816 27 2,184 3.11 2,156 Rocky Mountain Population Canadian 4,718 3,270 1,448 31 470 3.03 358 Tri-state Area Flock 453 355 98 22 34 2.81 32 Other U.S. flocks 57 49 8 14 4 2.00 4 Total Rocky Mountain Population 5,228 3,674 1,554 30 508 3.00 394 Interior Population High Plains 471 362 109 23 41 2.32 41 Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways 4,176 2,858 1,318 32 219 3.39 219 Total Interior Population 4,647 3,220 1,427 31 260 3.22 260 North American total 34,803 25,006 9,797 28 2,952 3.10 2,810 1 Adult and subadult swans. 2 Weighted mean based on number of broods of known size observed in each survey area. 5 Table 2. Estimates of abundance and average annual growth rates of North American trumpeter swans from quinquennial surveys, 1968-20051 Year of survey Annual growth rate Annual growth rate3 Population and flock 1968 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2000-2005 1968-2005 Pacific Coast Population Alaska 2,847 4,170 7,696 9,459 13,337 15,823 17,155 23,692 +6.5% +5.6%** Yukon and northwestern British Columbia 41 119 492 397 1,236 +22.7% +16.0%* Total Pacific Coast Population 2,847 4,170 7,696 9,500 13,456 16,315 17,552 24,928 +7.0% +5.8%** Rocky Mountain Population Canadian 106 1312 379 614 1,117 2,076 3,183 4,718 +7.9% +11.1%** Tri-state Area Flock 585 5372 485 507 589 364 426 453 +1.2% -0.8% Other U.S. flocks 120 131 111 74 41 77 56 57 +0.3% -2.6%* Total Rocky Mountain Population 811 7992 975 1,195 1,747 2,517 3,665 5,228 +7.1% +5.4%** Interior Population High Plains 64 116 164 158 185 240 370 471 +4.8% +4.9%** Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways 0 0 12 51 237 687 2,060 4,176 +14.1% +23.7%** Total Interior Population 64 116 176 209 422 927 2,430 4,647 +13.0% +11.7%** North American total 3,722 5,085 8,847 10,904 15,625 19,759 23,647 34,803 +7.7% +6.0%** 1 Estimates for 1968-2000 were from Caithamer (2001). Data for Yukon and nw British Columbia Pacific Coast swans 1985-2000 were revised slightly in 2005 (see methods). 2 Estimates reported in 1975 were obtained in 1974 or 1975. 3 Asterisks denote significance of regression slopes at the following P-values: * = P < 0.05, ** = P < 0.0001. 6 Table 3. Age distribution (percent cygnets) of North American trumpeter swans observed during quinquennial surveys, 1968-20051. Population and flock 1968 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Pacific Coast Population Alaska 32 28 32 18 27 24 19 27 Yukon and northwestern British Columbia 15 37 39 26 30 Total Pacific Coast Population 32 28 32 18 27 25 19 27 Rocky Mountain Population Canadian 29 332 27 30 32 30 32 31 Tri-state Area Flock 26 152 5 27 25 15 24 22 Other U.S. flocks 18 18 31 8 27 14 13 14 Total Rocky Mountain Population 25 182 16 28 30 28 30 30 Interior Population High Plains 33 30 27 40 34 21 28 23 Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways 0 14 27 26 30 32 Total Interior Population 33 30 25 33 30 25 30 31 North American total 31 27 30 19 27 25 22 28 1 Estimates for 1968-2000 were from Caithamer (2001). 2 Estimates reported in 1975 were obtained in 1974 or 1975. 7 Table 4. Social status of adult and subadult1 trumpeter swans observed during the 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey. Population and flock Paired (%) Single (%) In flocks (%) Swans categorized Pacific Coast Population Alaska 69.2 6.7 24.1 17,245 Yukon and northwestern British Columbia 65.1 4.8 30.1 867 Total Pacific Coast Population 69.0 6.6 24.4 18,112 Rocky Mountain Population Canadian 76.1 5.3 18.6 3,270 Tri-state Area Flock 53.0 7.3 39.7 355 Other U.S. flocks 65.3 2.0 32.7 49 Total Rocky Mountain Population 73.7 5.4 20.9 3,674 Interior Population High Plains 70.7 6.4 22.9 362 Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways 62.3 3.2 34.5 1,114 Total Interior Population 64.4 4.0 31.6 1,476 North American total 69.5 6.2 24.3 23,262 1Table entries exclude adults for which social status was not determined. 8 Fig. 1. Approximate breeding range of Pacific Coast, Rocky Mountain, and Interior populations of trumpeter swans. Trumpeter swan range expansion reported by survey biologists during the 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey is shown in red. 9 Year '68 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 Total swans 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 All trumpeter swans Pacific Coast Population Rocky Mountain Population Interior Population Fig. 2. Total North American and population-specific trumpeter swan abundance estimates resulting from quinquennial trumpeter swan surveys, 1968-2005. 10 Year '68 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 Percent cygnets 10 20 30 40 All trumpeter swans Pacific Coast Population Rocky Mountain Population Interior Population Fig. 3. Age distribution (percent cygnets) of North American trumpeter swans observed during quinquennial trumpeter swan surveys, 1968-2005. 11 Year '68 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 Total swans 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Total Pacific Coast Population Alaska Yukon & British Columbia Fig. 4. Pacific Coast Population trumpeter swan abundance estimates resulting from quinquennial trumpeter swan surveys, 1968-2005. 12 Year '68 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 Total swans 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Total Rocky Mountain Population Canadian Tri-state Area Other U.S. Fig. 5. Rocky Mountain Population trumpeter swan abundance estimates resulting from quinquennial trumpeter swan surveys, 1968-2005. 13 Year '68 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 Total swans 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 2500 2750 3000 3250 3500 3750 4000 4250 4500 4750 Total Interior Population Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways High Plains Fig. 6. Interior Population trumpeter swan abundance estimates resulting from quinquennial trumpeter swan surveys, 1968-2005. 14 Appendix A. Raw data from the 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey. State or 2005 2005 Total Flocked Population Flock Region Province start end Method1 Coverage2 Adults Cygnets swans adults Flocks Pacific Coast Pacific AK AK 20-Jul-05 8-Sep-05 1 1 17245 6447 23692 4148 658 Pacific Coast Pacific YK & n. BC YK & BC 11-Aug-05 20-Aug-05 1 2 868 369 1236 261 60 Rocky Mountain Canadian YK & n. BC YK & BC 11-Aug-05 26-Aug-05 1 2 1194 599 1793 67 15 Rocky Mountain Canadian BC - ne BC 13-Aug-05 18-Aug-05 1 1 438 152 590 66 17 Rocky Mountain Canadian BC - se BC 24-Aug-05 24-Aug-05 1 1 138 51 189 30 6 Rocky Mountain Canadian NWT NWT 24-Aug-05 8-Sep-05 1 1 327 88 415 73 11 Rocky Mountain Canadian AB AB 24-Aug-05 14-Sep-05 1 1 1173 558 1731 374 46 Rocky Mountain Canadian SK SK 5-Jul-05 5-Jul-05 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 Rocky Mountain Tri-state Area MT MT 14-Sep-05 27-Sep-05 1 1 112 40 152 57 7 Rocky Mountain Tri-state Area WY WY 14-Sep-05 15-Sep-05 5 1 107 36 143 29 5 Rocky Mountain Tri-state Area ID ID 16-Sep-05 17-Sep-05 1 1 136 22 158 55 13 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. Ruby Lake NV 14-Sep-05 14-Sep-05 1 1 17 0 17 3 1 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. Malheur OR 19-Sep-05 19-Sep-05 2 1 20 5 25 10 2 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. Summer L. OR 29-Sep-05 29-Sep-05 5 3 3 0 3 3 1 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. OR - other OR 29-Sep-05 29-Sep-05 5 3 9 3 12 0 0 Interior High Plains SD SD 8-Sep-05 10-Sep-05 1 1 73 10 83 39 7 Interior High Plains NE NE 8-Sep-05 10-Sep-05 1 1 211 64 275 31 8 Interior High Plains WY WY 8-Sep-05 10-Sep-05 ? ? 0 0 0 0 0 Interior High Plains MB MB 19-Aug-05 30-Aug-05 1 1 25 10 35 0 0 Interior High Plains SK SK 21-Aug-05 21-Aug-05 1 1 53 25 78 13 4 Interior MS & AT Flyway ON ON 15-May-05 7-Jan-06 5 1 454 190 644 Interior MS & AT Flyway MN MN May4 Mid-winter 2 4 1421 579 2000 Interior MS & AT Flyway WI WI 15-May-05 6-Oct-05 5 1 186 245 431 Interior MS & AT Flyway MI MI 15-Aug-05 30-Nov-05 5 1 540 188 728 249 22 Interior MS & AT Flyway IA IA 26-Sep-05 10-Oct-05 2 1 202 67 269 131 87 Interior MS & AT Flyway OH OH 10-Sep-05 20-Sep-05 5 1 45 46 91 4 1 Interior MS & AT Flyway NY NY 1-Jul-05 15-Sep-05 5 1 10 3 13 0 0 Appendix A. Continued. Pairs Pairs Singles Singles Mean n for State or with without Total with without Total brood brood Population Flock Region Province cygnets cygnets pairs cygnets cygnets broods size size3 Pacific Coast Pacific AK AK 2023 3947 5970 60 1097 2084 3.09 2084 Pacific Coast Pacific YK & n. BC YK & BC 98 184 282 2 40 100 3.74 72 Rocky Mountain Canadian YK & n. BC YK & BC 182 347 529 1 68 183 3.31 71 Rocky Mountain Canadian BC - ne BC 65 108 173 0 26 65 2.38 65 Rocky Mountain Canadian BC - se BC 19 34 53 0 2 19 2.68 19 Rocky Mountain Canadian NWT NWT 37 79 116 0 22 37 2.38 37 Rocky Mountain Canadian AB AB 163 210 373 3 50 166 3.36 166 Rocky Mountain Canadian SK SK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rocky Mountain Tri-state Area MT MT 13 12 25 0 5 15 2.46 13 Rocky Mountain Tri-state Area WY WY 8 23 31 3 13 11 3.27 11 Rocky Mountain Tri-state Area ID ID 8 30 38 0 5 8 2.75 8 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. Ruby Lake NV 0 7 7 0 0 0 0 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. Malheur OR 3 2 5 0 0 3 1.67 3 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. Summer L. OR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. OR - other OR 1 3 4 0 1 1 3.00 1 Interior High Plains SD SD 5 12 17 0 0 5 2.00 5 Interior High Plains NE NE 25 57 82 2 14 24 2.09 24 Interior High Plains WY WY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 Interior High Plains MB MB 3 7 10 0 5 3 3.33 3 Interior High Plains SK SK 9 10 19 0 2 9 2.78 92 Interior MS & AT Flyways ON ON 50 15 65 1 52 3.80 52 Interior MS & AT Flyways MN MN4 Interior MS & AT Flyways WI WI 68 25 93 68 3.60 68 Interior MS & AT Flyways MI MI 58 77 135 3 18 61 3.08 61 Interior MS & AT Flyways IA IA 20 11 31 1 8 21 3.19 21 Interior MS & AT Flyways OH OH 13 5 18 3 2 16 2.88 16 Interior MS & AT Flyways NY NY 1 4 5 0 0 1 3.00 1 1Survey method (1 = aerial, 2 = ground, 3 = other, 5 = combination of methods). 2Extent of survey coverage (1 = believed complete census, 2 = sample of entire range, 3 = census of part of range). 3Number of broods observed to estimate mean brood size. 4 MN survey not formally conducted in 2005. Estimates are based on periodic ground counts from spring through mid-winter. Appendix B. Participants and cooperators in the 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey. Akaran, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Anderson, P. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Andrews, R. Iowa Department of Natural Resources Arbuckle, R. Ducks Unlimited Canada Ball, G. Manitoba Department of Natural Resources Barber, J. Ohio Division of Wildlife Bazin, R. Canadian Wildlife Service Bertram, M. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Betts, T. National Park Service Beyersbergen, G. Canadian Wildlife Service Boersen, M. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Bogaczyk, B. U.S. Forest Service Bollinger, K. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Bortner, B. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Brackney, A. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Brazeau Brown, M. Private Breault, A. Canadian Wildlife Service Bronson, J. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Bryant, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Buchholtz, C. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Cameron, S. Parks Canada Agency Carey, C. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife Carlson, E. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Cassinelli, R. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Catterson, N. U.S. Forest Service Chapman, D. Montana Aircraft, Inc. Clark, J. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Collins, G. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Comeau-Kingfisher, S. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Conant, B. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Corcoran, R. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Cornely, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Cozzolino, S. New York Division of Fish, Wildlife, and Marine Resources Dau, C. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Denison, D. Alpine Aviation Denton, J. U.S. Bureau of Land Management Dubovsky, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Eckler, J. New York Division of Fish, Wildlife, and Marine Resources Eckstein, R. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Eldridge, B. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Ellis. J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Eskowich, K. Ducks Unlimited Canada Ficht, B. Private Ficht, J. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Fischer, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Foerster, S. Catteraquai Conservation Authority Found, C. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Fountain, R. Wye Marsh Wildlife Management Area Fremmerlid, M. Slave Air French, R. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Frey, S. Parks Canada Agency Appendix B. Continued. Gibbons, M. Parks Canada Agency Gingras, B. Canadian Wildlife Service Gonion, S. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Greene, R. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Grimes, S. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Groves, D. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Guldager, N. National Park Service Hall, W. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Hans, M. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Hardy, D. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Harrison, B. Ducks Unlimited Canada Hartley, J. Alberta Public Lands Department Harwood, C. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Hawkings, J. Canadian Wildlife Service Hayes, S. Parks Canada Agency Heckbert, M. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Henniger, E. Private Hobson, D. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Hodges, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Hoffman, D. Iowa Department of Natural Resources Hogrefe, T. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Hopp, J. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Hubbs, A. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Huhndorf, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Ivey, G. The Trumpeter Swan Society Johnson, B. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Johnson, J. Kellogg Bird Sanctuary Jozwiak, E. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Kaye, R. Parks Canada Agency King, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service King, R. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Kingdon, B. Private Kittelson, S. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources Koerner, T. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Kunnas, F. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Labrie, G. Slave Air Larned, B. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Latour, P. Canadian Wildlife Service Linck, M. Three Rivers Park Liston, J. Private Logan, D. U.S. Forest Service Long, B. Wyoming Wetland Society Lumsden, H. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, retired Lust, G. Mountain Air Research MacDougal, K. Parks Canada Agency Mackay, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Mallek, E. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Manthey, P. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Matteson, S. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources McEneaney, T. U.S. National Park Service McIntyre, C. U.S. National Park Service Appendix B. Continued. Miller, P. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Mills, T. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Mitchell, C. D. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Mulders, D. Canadian Wildlife Service Nelson, J. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Niewoonder, J. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Oates, R. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Oehlers, S. U.S. Forest Service Olson, D. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Paisley, R. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Parker, M. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Parton, B. New York Division of Fish, Wildlife, and Marine Resources Patla, S. Wyoming Fish and Game Paul, C. Allison Air Service Porter, R. Private landowner Alberta Pryor, P. Canadian Wildlife Service Quinlan, R. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Racchini, C. U.S. Forest Service Raynes, B Jackson Hole Bird Club president Reid, M. National Park Service Rifleman, R. Private Rising, G. Private Roblee, K. New York Division of Fish, Wildlife, and Marine Resources Rogers, K. U.S. Bureau of Land Management Roy, R. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Sallows, T. Parks Canada Agency Schmidt, J. University of Alaska, Fairbanks Scotton, B. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Shea, R. The Trumpeter Swan Society Sherman, D. Ohio Division of Wildlife Simpson, B. Dauphin Air Simpson, F. Ducks Unlimited Canada Sitar, K. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Spindler, M. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Sprenger, J. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Stepniski, D. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development St. Louis, M. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife Stradley, R. U.S. National Park Service Swift, B. New York Division of Fish, Wildlife, and Marine Resources Tate, D. Parks Canada Agency Terwilliger, M. National Park Service Tesky, L. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Thompson, P. U.S. Forest Service Tibbels, A. Ohio Division of Wildlife Timm, H. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Trost, R. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Visser, L. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Vivion, M. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Weeks, J. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Weinfurter, M. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Wilson, H. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Witt, M. Ohio Division of Wildlife Appendix B. Continued. Wright, K. Alberta Conservation Association Wynbrandt, J. Private Zroback, F. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service April 2006 All Division of Migratory Bird Management reports are available at http://migratorybirds.fws.gov
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Title | The 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey |
Contact | mailto:library@fws.gov |
Description | trumpeterswan_survey05.pdf |
FWS Resource Links | http://library.fws.gov |
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Document Birds |
Publisher | U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service |
Date of Original | 2005 |
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Transcript | The 2005 North American Trumpeter Swan Survey U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service April 2006 Compiled by T. J. Moser U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Division of Migratory Bird Management Denver, Colorado The 2005 North American Trumpeter Swan Survey A Cooperative North American Survey Abstract: The abundance and productivity of North American trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator) was assessed during the 2005 quinquennial trumpeter swan survey, May 2005-January 2006. The continental estimate of trumpeter swan abundance in 2005 was 34,803, a record-high level since comprehensive surveys were initiated in 1968, and 47% higher than the estimate during the 2000 survey. Abundance estimates for each of North America’s 3 recognized trumpeter swan populations also reached record-high levels during the 2005 survey. Survey biologists estimated that the Pacific Coast Population included 24,928 swans, 42% more than during the 2000 survey. The abundance estimate of Rocky Mountain Population swans during the 2005 survey was 5,228 birds, 43% higher than in 2000. The 2005 survey estimate for the Interior Population was 4,647 swans, an increase of 91% from the estimate in 2000. The age distributions of all swan populations during the 2005 survey ranged from 27% to 31% cygnets, and were higher than the 2000 percentage for each population. We present estimates of average annual growth rates and indices of production for these populations and their component flocks. INTRODUCTION Quinquennial trumpeter swan surveys are intended to provide comprehensive assessments of swan abundance and indices of swan productivity throughout the entire breeding ranges of the 3 recognized North American populations: the Pacific Coast, Rocky Mountain, and Interior populations (Fig. 1). These systematic and cooperative surveys of North American trumpeter swans were first conducted in 1968, repeated in 1974-75, and continued at 5-year intervals thereafter (1980-2005). Survey coverage was expanded in 1985 and considered comprehensive, but survey coverage has continued to change in response to population restoration efforts and changes in swan distribution. This report summarizes results of the 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey and compares these data with previous quinquennial survey results (Caithamer 2001). METHODS Cooperating observers were requested to assess the abundance and productivity of wild trumpeter swans that were present during the breeding season throughout each survey region. Late summer was the targeted survey period, but some regions delayed efforts until winter to allow swans to congregate from dispersed breeding areas within regions. No efforts were directed at surveying captive swans in 2005. Survey biologists counted trumpeter swans in each of 2 age classes (cygnet or adult/subadult), and adult/subadult swans were separated into 5 social groups (paired with cygnets, paired without cygnets, single without cygnets, single with cygnets, or members of flocks). All population estimates were treated as though they were measured without error. Trends in abundance estimates for populations and flocks over the long term (generally 1968-2005) and the last 2 survey periods (2000 and 2005) were calculated through regression of the natural logarithm of survey estimates on year. The estimated annual growth rates (regression slopes) from the long-term regressions were tested for equality to zero (t-test). The alpha level (P value) used for determining statistical significance was 0.10. In some regions, wild swan populations have been supplemented through restoration releases; in these cases growth rates may overestimate intrinsic growth. Mean brood sizes were calculated by weighting averages from various reporting areas. Temporal trends in the age distributions of flocks were evaluated through linear regression. Adult/subadult (“white”) swans for which social status was not determined were excluded from calculation of social group distribution. Population and flock terminology in this report follows population-specific management plans (Subcommittee on the Interior Population of Trumpeter Swans 1998, Pacific Flyway Council 2002, 2006). Most trumpeter swan reporting regions named in this report can be adequately located using their geographic titles and Figure 1, but additional descriptions for some regions are provided here. Tri-state Area Flock swans nest in southeastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, and western Wyoming; Canadian 1 Rocky Mountain Population swans nest in this population’s range in Canada; and swans in Other U.S. flocks nest within the remaining Rocky Mountain Population range. High Plains Interior Population swans nest from the Rocky Mountain Population’s eastern boundary to the western borders of Ontario, Minnesota, and Iowa; Mississippi and Atlantic Flyway swans nest from the last-mentioned borders eastward. During 2005, managers of Pacific Coast Population trumpeter swans in the Yukon and British Columbia region reconciled historical datasets which prompted slight revision (<4 swans per year) of PCP abundance estimates from previous quinquennial surveys. The reconciled estimates are included in this report and therefore differ slightly from those within previous quinquennial reports. The 2005 trumpeter swan survey was conducted by numerous individuals and agencies throughout North America between 15 May 2005 and 7 January 2006 (see Appendix A for these dates and other 2005 raw data). The median starting and ending dates for the 2005 survey were 24 August and 14 September, respectively. For comparison, the 2000 survey was conducted 15 April to 25 January with median starting and ending dates of 20 August and 11 September, respectively. Most areas were surveyed aerially or by a network of ground observers similar to efforts during the 2000 survey with 1 exception. Due to warm temperatures and wide dispersal of swans in Minnesota during 2005, the formal survey was not conducted. Minnesota estimates for the 2005 survey were based on periodic ground counts from spring through mid-winter. Generally, survey results in 2005 were believed to be complete censuses, except for northern British Columbia and the Yukon Territory where swan estimates were based on stratified random sample of mapsheets across the probable range of trumpeter swans. RESULTS North American Trumpeter Swans During the 2005 trumpeter swan survey the estimated abundance of all North American trumpeter swans was 34,803, 47% higher than the estimate from the 2000 survey (23,647), and a record-high level since surveys began in 1968 (Tables 1-2, Fig. 2). These data suggest North America’s trumpeter swan population increased an average of 7.7% each year during 2000-2005. The estimated rate of growth during 1968-2005 was +6.0% per year (P < 0.0001, Table 2). Abundance estimates from the 2005 survey reached record-high levels for each of the 3 recognized populations (see population-specific sections below). During the 2005 survey 28% of all trumpeter swans observed were cygnets, the third highest proportion on record (1968-2005, Table 3), and a higher proportion than observed during the 2000 survey (22%). Analysis indicated no long-term trend in the percentage of the population comprised of cygnets (Fig. 3, P = 0.33). The average brood size in 2005 was 3.10 cygnets, slightly higher than the 2000 value of 3.0. Survey observers in 2005 indicated trumpeter swans had expanded their range since the 2000 survey in all 4 directions from previously reported range in Alaska, along the Mackenzie River in the Northwest Territories, and to small areas adjacent to the previous range in Alberta, western Wyoming, eastern Saskatchewan, western Manitoba, and southeastern Michigan (Fig. 1). Pacific Coast Population (PCP) Abundance estimates of all PCP swans reached a record-high level of 24,928 in 2005, 42% higher than in 2000 (Tables 1-2, Fig. 4). Estimated annual growth rates during 2000-2005 and 1968-2005 averaged +7.0% and +5.8%, respectively (Table 2). In 2005, 27% percent of PCP swans observed were cygnets, higher than in 2000 (19%) and slightly higher than the 1968-2000 average of 26% (Table 3). Analysis showed little indication of a long-term trend in the age distribution of the population (Fig. 3, P = 0.19). Average brood size for PCP swans in 2005 was 3.1 cygnets, somewhat higher than in 2000 (2.8). The abundance estimate of the Alaska flock in 2005 was 23,692 swans, a record-high level and 38% 2 higher than in 2000 (Tables 1-2). The 2005 estimate of Yukon and northwest British Columbia flock swans was 1,236 (95% CI = 1,114–1,358), also a record high, and 211% higher than in 2000. Additional flock information is provided in Tables 1-4. Rocky Mountain Population (RMP) The 2005 survey yielded an estimate of 5,228 RMP trumpeter swans, which was 43% higher than the 2000 estimate, and the highest estimate on record (Tables 1-2, Fig. 5). Estimated average annual growth rates during 2000-2005 and 1968-2005 were +7.1% and +5.4%, respectively. The proportion of observed swans that were cygnets in 2005 was 30%, the same proportion as in 2000, and higher than the 1968- 2000 average of 25% (Table 3). Linear regression indicates an increasing trend in the percentage of cygnets in the RMP population during 1968-2005 (+0.33% per year, P = 0.07, Fig. 3). Brood sizes in 2005 averaged 3.0 cygnets, slightly lower than in 2000 (3.1). During the 2005 survey, the RMP Canadian flocks were estimated to include 4,718 swans, 48% more than in 2000, and the most recorded since 1968 (Tables 1-2). In 2005, there were 453 swans counted in the Tri-state Area Flock, 6% more than in 2000, but fewer than the peak count of 589 in 1990. Although swan abundance in the Tri-state Area Flock remains below the levels of 1968-1990, quinquenniel survey abundance estimates have increased consecutively from 1995 through 2005 (Table 2). The 2005 survey estimated a population of 57 swans in Other U.S. flocks, 1 bird more than observed in 2000. Other U.S flocks are the only regional group that showed significant decline during the 1968-2005 period (-2.6% per year, P = 0.02). Additional flock information is provided in Tables 1-4. Interior Population (IP) The 2005 survey indicated a record-high estimate of 4,647 IP swans, an increase of 91% over the 2000 estimate (Tables 1-2, Fig. 6). The IP exhibited the highest average annual growth rate of the 3 trumpeter swan populations, +13.0% during 2000-2005, and +11.7% during 1968-2005. In 2005, 31% percent of IP swans observed were cygnets, similar to the proportion in 2000 and the 1968-2000 average (30% and 29%, respectively; Table 3). The age distribution of the population indicated no long-term trend in the proportion of cygnets (Fig. 3, P = 0.67). Average brood size in 2005 was 3.2 cygnets, lower than the value of 3.6 from the 2000 survey. The 2005 abundance estimate for Mississippi and Atlantic Flyway trumpeter swans was 4,176 swans, 103% higher than in 2000, and the highest estimate on record. The High Plains flock estimate was 471 swans in 2005, 27% higher than in 2000, and a record-high estimate. Additional flock information is provided in Tables 1-4. DISCUSSION Abundance estimates for all North American trumpeter swans and for each of the 3 recognized populations reached record-high levels during the 2005 survey. Estimated average annual growth rates for all populations exceeded 5% (range: 5.4-11.7%) over the long term and 7% (range: 7.0-7.7%) between 2000 and 2005 (Table 2). Additionally, abundance estimates for each of the 7 swan flocks was higher during the 2005 survey than in 2000, although increases for the Tri-state Area and Other U.S. RMP flocks were small. With the exception of Tri-state Area and Other U.S. RMP flocks, estimated annual growth rates for flocks exceeded 4.8% (range: 4.8-23.7%) over the long term and 4.9% (range: 4.9-22.7%) between 2000 and 2005. These growth rates include the effects of swan releases associated with restoration efforts. Only the Tri-state Area and Other U.S. flocks of the RMP exhibited negative growth over the long-term period and showed only slight growth between 2000 and 2005. A more detailed evaluation of population status of these flocks is available (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2005, 2006). Comparison of abundance estimates from the 2005 quinquennial trumpeter swan survey with numerical goals contained within current management plans for these populations indicate that substantial 3 accomplishments have been made (Subcommittee on the Interior Population of Trumpeter Swans 1998, Pacific Flyway Council 2002, 2006). The PCP objective is to maintain “not less than 25,000 swans” as measured by quinquennial surveys, compared with the 2005 estimate of 24,929 swans. The RMP management plan goal is “a 5% average annual growth in the number of wintering birds.” The short-term and long-term growth rates from the summer/fall quinquennial survey data (7.1% and 5.4%, respectively) would appear to support that goal. However, the RMP plan also contains several flock-specific objectives which have not yet been achieved. The number of IP swans exceeded the management plan’s principal population objective of “at least 2,000 birds and 180 successful breeding pairs by 2001” by the time of the 2000 quinquennial survey (2,430 swans and 203 broods [Caithamer 2001]). While significant accomplishments have been made towards reaching goals for all 3 populations, it is noted that each management plan includes additional goals or objectives that have not been achieved. For all 3 North American trumpeter swan populations, growth rates during 2000-2005 exceeded the average growth rates during 1968-2005 (Table 2) and 1968-2000 (6.0%, 5.0%, and 10.9% for the PCP, RMP, and IP, respectively). No population exhibited a significant decline in the proportion of cygnets composing the surveyed population over the period of survey (P-values for any negative trends were greater than 0.19). Notwithstanding challenges regarding swan habitats and migratory behaviors, prospects for continued growth of North America’s trumpeter swan populations appear promising. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Data for the 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey were collected by numerous individuals employed by many agencies, volunteers, and citizens who reported incidental swan observations. The compiler apologizes for any cooperators omitted from Appendix B. Regional surveys were coordinated or summarized by B. Bales, G. Beyersbergen, B. Bortner, A. Breault, S. Comeau-Kingfisher, B. Conant, J. Cornely, J. Dubovsky, D. Groves, C. Harris, J. Hawkings, D. Hoffman, T. Hogrefe, J. Johnson, S. Kittelson, H. Lumsden, S. Matteson, D. Sherman, and B. Swift. The cooperation of Canadian Wildlife Service and the Trumpeter Swan Society was integral to survey completion. R. Oates, R. Trost, and B. Millsap helped secure and administer Fish and Wildlife Service funding for the 2005 survey. The cover photograph was provided by J. Cornely. J. Dubovsky, M. Koneff, R. Shea, and K. Wilkins provided helpful comments on earlier drafts of this report. LITERATURE CITED Caithamer, D. F., compiler. 2001. Trumpeter swan population status, 2000. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Washington, D.C. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2005. Trumpeter swan survey of the Rocky Mountain Population, U.S. Breeding Segment – Fall 2005. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service report. Denver, Colorado. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2006. Trumpeter swan survey of the Rocky Mountain Population – Winter 2006. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service report. Denver, Colorado. Subcommittee on the Interior Population of Trumpeter Swans. 1998. Mississippi and Central Flyway Management Plan for the Interior Population of Trumpeter Swans. Mississippi and Central Flyway Councils [c/o U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service]. Twin Cities, Minnesota. Pacific Flyway Council. 2006. Pacific Flyway management plan for the Pacific Coast Population of Trumpeter Swans. Pacific Flyway Study Committee [c/o U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service]. Portland, Oregon. Pacific Flyway Council. 2002. Pacific Flyway management plan for the Rocky Mountain Population of Trumpeter Swans. Pacific Flyway Study Committee [c/o U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service]. Portland, Oregon. 4 Table 1. Demographics of Pacific Coast, Rocky Mountain, and Interior populations of trumpeter swans during the 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey. Mean brood size2 Population and flock Total swans White swans1 Cygnets % cygnets Broods x n Pacific Coast Population Alaska 23,692 17,245 6,447 27 2,084 3.09 2,084 Yukon and northwestern British Columbia 1,236 867 369 30 100 3.74 72 Total Pacific Coast Population 24,928 18,112 6,816 27 2,184 3.11 2,156 Rocky Mountain Population Canadian 4,718 3,270 1,448 31 470 3.03 358 Tri-state Area Flock 453 355 98 22 34 2.81 32 Other U.S. flocks 57 49 8 14 4 2.00 4 Total Rocky Mountain Population 5,228 3,674 1,554 30 508 3.00 394 Interior Population High Plains 471 362 109 23 41 2.32 41 Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways 4,176 2,858 1,318 32 219 3.39 219 Total Interior Population 4,647 3,220 1,427 31 260 3.22 260 North American total 34,803 25,006 9,797 28 2,952 3.10 2,810 1 Adult and subadult swans. 2 Weighted mean based on number of broods of known size observed in each survey area. 5 Table 2. Estimates of abundance and average annual growth rates of North American trumpeter swans from quinquennial surveys, 1968-20051 Year of survey Annual growth rate Annual growth rate3 Population and flock 1968 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2000-2005 1968-2005 Pacific Coast Population Alaska 2,847 4,170 7,696 9,459 13,337 15,823 17,155 23,692 +6.5% +5.6%** Yukon and northwestern British Columbia 41 119 492 397 1,236 +22.7% +16.0%* Total Pacific Coast Population 2,847 4,170 7,696 9,500 13,456 16,315 17,552 24,928 +7.0% +5.8%** Rocky Mountain Population Canadian 106 1312 379 614 1,117 2,076 3,183 4,718 +7.9% +11.1%** Tri-state Area Flock 585 5372 485 507 589 364 426 453 +1.2% -0.8% Other U.S. flocks 120 131 111 74 41 77 56 57 +0.3% -2.6%* Total Rocky Mountain Population 811 7992 975 1,195 1,747 2,517 3,665 5,228 +7.1% +5.4%** Interior Population High Plains 64 116 164 158 185 240 370 471 +4.8% +4.9%** Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways 0 0 12 51 237 687 2,060 4,176 +14.1% +23.7%** Total Interior Population 64 116 176 209 422 927 2,430 4,647 +13.0% +11.7%** North American total 3,722 5,085 8,847 10,904 15,625 19,759 23,647 34,803 +7.7% +6.0%** 1 Estimates for 1968-2000 were from Caithamer (2001). Data for Yukon and nw British Columbia Pacific Coast swans 1985-2000 were revised slightly in 2005 (see methods). 2 Estimates reported in 1975 were obtained in 1974 or 1975. 3 Asterisks denote significance of regression slopes at the following P-values: * = P < 0.05, ** = P < 0.0001. 6 Table 3. Age distribution (percent cygnets) of North American trumpeter swans observed during quinquennial surveys, 1968-20051. Population and flock 1968 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Pacific Coast Population Alaska 32 28 32 18 27 24 19 27 Yukon and northwestern British Columbia 15 37 39 26 30 Total Pacific Coast Population 32 28 32 18 27 25 19 27 Rocky Mountain Population Canadian 29 332 27 30 32 30 32 31 Tri-state Area Flock 26 152 5 27 25 15 24 22 Other U.S. flocks 18 18 31 8 27 14 13 14 Total Rocky Mountain Population 25 182 16 28 30 28 30 30 Interior Population High Plains 33 30 27 40 34 21 28 23 Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways 0 14 27 26 30 32 Total Interior Population 33 30 25 33 30 25 30 31 North American total 31 27 30 19 27 25 22 28 1 Estimates for 1968-2000 were from Caithamer (2001). 2 Estimates reported in 1975 were obtained in 1974 or 1975. 7 Table 4. Social status of adult and subadult1 trumpeter swans observed during the 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey. Population and flock Paired (%) Single (%) In flocks (%) Swans categorized Pacific Coast Population Alaska 69.2 6.7 24.1 17,245 Yukon and northwestern British Columbia 65.1 4.8 30.1 867 Total Pacific Coast Population 69.0 6.6 24.4 18,112 Rocky Mountain Population Canadian 76.1 5.3 18.6 3,270 Tri-state Area Flock 53.0 7.3 39.7 355 Other U.S. flocks 65.3 2.0 32.7 49 Total Rocky Mountain Population 73.7 5.4 20.9 3,674 Interior Population High Plains 70.7 6.4 22.9 362 Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways 62.3 3.2 34.5 1,114 Total Interior Population 64.4 4.0 31.6 1,476 North American total 69.5 6.2 24.3 23,262 1Table entries exclude adults for which social status was not determined. 8 Fig. 1. Approximate breeding range of Pacific Coast, Rocky Mountain, and Interior populations of trumpeter swans. Trumpeter swan range expansion reported by survey biologists during the 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey is shown in red. 9 Year '68 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 Total swans 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 All trumpeter swans Pacific Coast Population Rocky Mountain Population Interior Population Fig. 2. Total North American and population-specific trumpeter swan abundance estimates resulting from quinquennial trumpeter swan surveys, 1968-2005. 10 Year '68 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 Percent cygnets 10 20 30 40 All trumpeter swans Pacific Coast Population Rocky Mountain Population Interior Population Fig. 3. Age distribution (percent cygnets) of North American trumpeter swans observed during quinquennial trumpeter swan surveys, 1968-2005. 11 Year '68 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 Total swans 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Total Pacific Coast Population Alaska Yukon & British Columbia Fig. 4. Pacific Coast Population trumpeter swan abundance estimates resulting from quinquennial trumpeter swan surveys, 1968-2005. 12 Year '68 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 Total swans 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Total Rocky Mountain Population Canadian Tri-state Area Other U.S. Fig. 5. Rocky Mountain Population trumpeter swan abundance estimates resulting from quinquennial trumpeter swan surveys, 1968-2005. 13 Year '68 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 Total swans 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 2500 2750 3000 3250 3500 3750 4000 4250 4500 4750 Total Interior Population Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways High Plains Fig. 6. Interior Population trumpeter swan abundance estimates resulting from quinquennial trumpeter swan surveys, 1968-2005. 14 Appendix A. Raw data from the 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey. State or 2005 2005 Total Flocked Population Flock Region Province start end Method1 Coverage2 Adults Cygnets swans adults Flocks Pacific Coast Pacific AK AK 20-Jul-05 8-Sep-05 1 1 17245 6447 23692 4148 658 Pacific Coast Pacific YK & n. BC YK & BC 11-Aug-05 20-Aug-05 1 2 868 369 1236 261 60 Rocky Mountain Canadian YK & n. BC YK & BC 11-Aug-05 26-Aug-05 1 2 1194 599 1793 67 15 Rocky Mountain Canadian BC - ne BC 13-Aug-05 18-Aug-05 1 1 438 152 590 66 17 Rocky Mountain Canadian BC - se BC 24-Aug-05 24-Aug-05 1 1 138 51 189 30 6 Rocky Mountain Canadian NWT NWT 24-Aug-05 8-Sep-05 1 1 327 88 415 73 11 Rocky Mountain Canadian AB AB 24-Aug-05 14-Sep-05 1 1 1173 558 1731 374 46 Rocky Mountain Canadian SK SK 5-Jul-05 5-Jul-05 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 Rocky Mountain Tri-state Area MT MT 14-Sep-05 27-Sep-05 1 1 112 40 152 57 7 Rocky Mountain Tri-state Area WY WY 14-Sep-05 15-Sep-05 5 1 107 36 143 29 5 Rocky Mountain Tri-state Area ID ID 16-Sep-05 17-Sep-05 1 1 136 22 158 55 13 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. Ruby Lake NV 14-Sep-05 14-Sep-05 1 1 17 0 17 3 1 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. Malheur OR 19-Sep-05 19-Sep-05 2 1 20 5 25 10 2 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. Summer L. OR 29-Sep-05 29-Sep-05 5 3 3 0 3 3 1 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. OR - other OR 29-Sep-05 29-Sep-05 5 3 9 3 12 0 0 Interior High Plains SD SD 8-Sep-05 10-Sep-05 1 1 73 10 83 39 7 Interior High Plains NE NE 8-Sep-05 10-Sep-05 1 1 211 64 275 31 8 Interior High Plains WY WY 8-Sep-05 10-Sep-05 ? ? 0 0 0 0 0 Interior High Plains MB MB 19-Aug-05 30-Aug-05 1 1 25 10 35 0 0 Interior High Plains SK SK 21-Aug-05 21-Aug-05 1 1 53 25 78 13 4 Interior MS & AT Flyway ON ON 15-May-05 7-Jan-06 5 1 454 190 644 Interior MS & AT Flyway MN MN May4 Mid-winter 2 4 1421 579 2000 Interior MS & AT Flyway WI WI 15-May-05 6-Oct-05 5 1 186 245 431 Interior MS & AT Flyway MI MI 15-Aug-05 30-Nov-05 5 1 540 188 728 249 22 Interior MS & AT Flyway IA IA 26-Sep-05 10-Oct-05 2 1 202 67 269 131 87 Interior MS & AT Flyway OH OH 10-Sep-05 20-Sep-05 5 1 45 46 91 4 1 Interior MS & AT Flyway NY NY 1-Jul-05 15-Sep-05 5 1 10 3 13 0 0 Appendix A. Continued. Pairs Pairs Singles Singles Mean n for State or with without Total with without Total brood brood Population Flock Region Province cygnets cygnets pairs cygnets cygnets broods size size3 Pacific Coast Pacific AK AK 2023 3947 5970 60 1097 2084 3.09 2084 Pacific Coast Pacific YK & n. BC YK & BC 98 184 282 2 40 100 3.74 72 Rocky Mountain Canadian YK & n. BC YK & BC 182 347 529 1 68 183 3.31 71 Rocky Mountain Canadian BC - ne BC 65 108 173 0 26 65 2.38 65 Rocky Mountain Canadian BC - se BC 19 34 53 0 2 19 2.68 19 Rocky Mountain Canadian NWT NWT 37 79 116 0 22 37 2.38 37 Rocky Mountain Canadian AB AB 163 210 373 3 50 166 3.36 166 Rocky Mountain Canadian SK SK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rocky Mountain Tri-state Area MT MT 13 12 25 0 5 15 2.46 13 Rocky Mountain Tri-state Area WY WY 8 23 31 3 13 11 3.27 11 Rocky Mountain Tri-state Area ID ID 8 30 38 0 5 8 2.75 8 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. Ruby Lake NV 0 7 7 0 0 0 0 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. Malheur OR 3 2 5 0 0 3 1.67 3 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. Summer L. OR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 Rocky Mountain Other U.S. OR - other OR 1 3 4 0 1 1 3.00 1 Interior High Plains SD SD 5 12 17 0 0 5 2.00 5 Interior High Plains NE NE 25 57 82 2 14 24 2.09 24 Interior High Plains WY WY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 Interior High Plains MB MB 3 7 10 0 5 3 3.33 3 Interior High Plains SK SK 9 10 19 0 2 9 2.78 92 Interior MS & AT Flyways ON ON 50 15 65 1 52 3.80 52 Interior MS & AT Flyways MN MN4 Interior MS & AT Flyways WI WI 68 25 93 68 3.60 68 Interior MS & AT Flyways MI MI 58 77 135 3 18 61 3.08 61 Interior MS & AT Flyways IA IA 20 11 31 1 8 21 3.19 21 Interior MS & AT Flyways OH OH 13 5 18 3 2 16 2.88 16 Interior MS & AT Flyways NY NY 1 4 5 0 0 1 3.00 1 1Survey method (1 = aerial, 2 = ground, 3 = other, 5 = combination of methods). 2Extent of survey coverage (1 = believed complete census, 2 = sample of entire range, 3 = census of part of range). 3Number of broods observed to estimate mean brood size. 4 MN survey not formally conducted in 2005. Estimates are based on periodic ground counts from spring through mid-winter. Appendix B. Participants and cooperators in the 2005 North American trumpeter swan survey. Akaran, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Anderson, P. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Andrews, R. Iowa Department of Natural Resources Arbuckle, R. Ducks Unlimited Canada Ball, G. Manitoba Department of Natural Resources Barber, J. Ohio Division of Wildlife Bazin, R. Canadian Wildlife Service Bertram, M. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Betts, T. National Park Service Beyersbergen, G. Canadian Wildlife Service Boersen, M. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Bogaczyk, B. U.S. Forest Service Bollinger, K. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Bortner, B. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Brackney, A. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Brazeau Brown, M. Private Breault, A. Canadian Wildlife Service Bronson, J. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Bryant, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Buchholtz, C. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Cameron, S. Parks Canada Agency Carey, C. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife Carlson, E. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Cassinelli, R. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Catterson, N. U.S. Forest Service Chapman, D. Montana Aircraft, Inc. Clark, J. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Collins, G. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Comeau-Kingfisher, S. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Conant, B. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Corcoran, R. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Cornely, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Cozzolino, S. New York Division of Fish, Wildlife, and Marine Resources Dau, C. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Denison, D. Alpine Aviation Denton, J. U.S. Bureau of Land Management Dubovsky, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Eckler, J. New York Division of Fish, Wildlife, and Marine Resources Eckstein, R. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Eldridge, B. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Ellis. J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Eskowich, K. Ducks Unlimited Canada Ficht, B. Private Ficht, J. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Fischer, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Foerster, S. Catteraquai Conservation Authority Found, C. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Fountain, R. Wye Marsh Wildlife Management Area Fremmerlid, M. Slave Air French, R. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Frey, S. Parks Canada Agency Appendix B. Continued. Gibbons, M. Parks Canada Agency Gingras, B. Canadian Wildlife Service Gonion, S. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Greene, R. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Grimes, S. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Groves, D. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Guldager, N. National Park Service Hall, W. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Hans, M. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Hardy, D. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Harrison, B. Ducks Unlimited Canada Hartley, J. Alberta Public Lands Department Harwood, C. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Hawkings, J. Canadian Wildlife Service Hayes, S. Parks Canada Agency Heckbert, M. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Henniger, E. Private Hobson, D. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Hodges, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Hoffman, D. Iowa Department of Natural Resources Hogrefe, T. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Hopp, J. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Hubbs, A. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Huhndorf, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Ivey, G. The Trumpeter Swan Society Johnson, B. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Johnson, J. Kellogg Bird Sanctuary Jozwiak, E. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Kaye, R. Parks Canada Agency King, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service King, R. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Kingdon, B. Private Kittelson, S. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources Koerner, T. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Kunnas, F. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Labrie, G. Slave Air Larned, B. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Latour, P. Canadian Wildlife Service Linck, M. Three Rivers Park Liston, J. Private Logan, D. U.S. Forest Service Long, B. Wyoming Wetland Society Lumsden, H. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, retired Lust, G. Mountain Air Research MacDougal, K. Parks Canada Agency Mackay, J. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Mallek, E. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Manthey, P. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Matteson, S. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources McEneaney, T. U.S. National Park Service McIntyre, C. U.S. National Park Service Appendix B. Continued. Miller, P. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Mills, T. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Mitchell, C. D. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Mulders, D. Canadian Wildlife Service Nelson, J. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Niewoonder, J. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Oates, R. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Oehlers, S. U.S. Forest Service Olson, D. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Paisley, R. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Parker, M. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Parton, B. New York Division of Fish, Wildlife, and Marine Resources Patla, S. Wyoming Fish and Game Paul, C. Allison Air Service Porter, R. Private landowner Alberta Pryor, P. Canadian Wildlife Service Quinlan, R. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Racchini, C. U.S. Forest Service Raynes, B Jackson Hole Bird Club president Reid, M. National Park Service Rifleman, R. Private Rising, G. Private Roblee, K. New York Division of Fish, Wildlife, and Marine Resources Rogers, K. U.S. Bureau of Land Management Roy, R. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Sallows, T. Parks Canada Agency Schmidt, J. University of Alaska, Fairbanks Scotton, B. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Shea, R. The Trumpeter Swan Society Sherman, D. Ohio Division of Wildlife Simpson, B. Dauphin Air Simpson, F. Ducks Unlimited Canada Sitar, K. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Spindler, M. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Sprenger, J. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Stepniski, D. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development St. Louis, M. Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife Stradley, R. U.S. National Park Service Swift, B. New York Division of Fish, Wildlife, and Marine Resources Tate, D. Parks Canada Agency Terwilliger, M. National Park Service Tesky, L. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Thompson, P. U.S. Forest Service Tibbels, A. Ohio Division of Wildlife Timm, H. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Trost, R. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Visser, L. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Vivion, M. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Weeks, J. Michigan Department of Natural Resources Weinfurter, M. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Wilson, H. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Witt, M. Ohio Division of Wildlife Appendix B. Continued. Wright, K. Alberta Conservation Association Wynbrandt, J. Private Zroback, F. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service April 2006 All Division of Migratory Bird Management reports are available at http://migratorybirds.fws.gov |
Original Filename | trumpeterswan_survey05.pdf |
Date created | 2013-01-23 |
Date modified | 2013-03-06 |
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