Waterfowl population status, 2003

              Waterfowl
Population Status, 2003
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
WATERFOWL POPULATION STATUS, 2003
July 23, 2003
In North America the process of establishing hunting regulations for waterfowl is conducted annually. In the
United States the process involves a number of scheduled meetings in which information regarding the status of
waterfowl is presented to individuals within the agencies responsible for setting hunting regulations. In addition,
public hearings are held and the proposed regulations are published in the Federal Register to allow public
comment. This report includes the most current breeding population and production information available for
waterfowl in North America and is a result of cooperative efforts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the
Canadian Wildlife Service (CWS), various state and provincial conservation agencies, and private conservation
organizations. This report is intended to aid the development of waterfowl harvest regulations in the U.S. for the
2003-2004 hunting season.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Cover art: Snow geese. Ron Lougue, winner of the 2003-2004 Federal Duck Stamp design competition.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Waterfowl Population and Habitat Information: The information summarized in this report is the result of the
efforts of numerous individuals and organizations. Principal contributors include the Canadian Wildlife Service,
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, state wildlife conservation agencies, provincial conservation agencies from
Canada, and Dirección General de Conservación Ecologica de los Recursos Naturales, Mexico. In addition,
several conservation organizations, other state and federal agencies, universities, and private individuals
provided information or cooperated in survey activities. Some habitat and weather information was taken from
the NOAA/USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility (www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/), Environment Canada
(www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/), and Waterfowl Population Surveys reports (migratorybirds.fws.gov/-
reports/reports.html). Appendix A provides a list of individuals responsible for the collection and compilation of
data for the Ducks section of this report. Appendix B provides a list of primary contacts for information included
in the Geese and Swans section. We apologize for any contributor we did not acknowledge and thank all
participants for their contributions. Without this combined effort, a comprehensive assessment of waterfowl
populations and habitat would not be possible.
Authors: This report was prepared by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Migratory Bird
Management, Branch of Surveys and Assessment. The principal authors are Pamela R. Garrettson, Timothy J.
Moser, and Khristi A. Wilkins. The authors compiled information from the numerous sources to provide an
assessment of the status of waterfowl populations.
Report Preparation: The preparation of this report involved substantial efforts on the part of many individuals.
Support for the processing of data and publication was provided by M. C. Otto, J. A. Dubovsky, J. P. Bladen, D.
A. Davenport, and M. C. Runge. R. J. Blohm and P. I. Padding reviewed drafts of this report and provided
helpful comments. V. R. Bentley, J. K. Bidwell, K. S. Bollinger, E. K. Buelna, W. I. Butler, C. F. Ferguson, R. J.
King, M. D. Koneff, F. H. Roetker, J. W. Solberg, P. P. Thorpe, J. F. Voelzer, and J. S. Wortham provided
habitat narratives, reviewed portions of the report that addressed major breeding areas, and provided helpful
comments.
This report should be cited as: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2003. Waterfowl population status, 2003. U.S.
Department of the Interior, Washington, D.C. 53pp.
All Division of Migratory Bird Management reports are available at our home page (migratorybirds.fws.gov).
3
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................................... 2
Table of Contents......................................................................................................................................... 3
Status of ducks
Methods........................................................................................................................................................ 5
Results and Discussion................................................................................................................................ 6
References................................................................................................................................................. 21
Status of geese and swans
Methods...................................................................................................................................................... 23
Results and Discussion.............................................................................................................................. 25
Appendices
Appendix A. Individuals who supplied information on the status of ducks ................................................ 39
Appendix B. Individuals who supplied information on the status of geese and swans.............................. 41
Appendix C. Transects and strata for areas of the breeding waterfowl and habitat survey ...................... 43
Appendix D. May pond estimates and standard errors in portions of Prairie Canada and the north-central
U.S.................................................................................................................................................... 44
Appendix E. Breeding population estimates for total ducks and mallards for states, provinces,
or regions that conduct spring surveys ............................................................................................. 45
Appendix F. Breeding population estimates and standard errors for 10 species of ducks
from the traditional survey area......................................................................................................... 46
Appendix G. Total duck breeding estimates for the traditional and eastern survey areas in
thousands......................................................................................................................................... 49
Appendix H. Breeding population estimates and standard errors for the 10 most abundant
species of ducks in the eastern survey area, 1999-2003.................................................................. 49
Appendix I. July pond estimates and standard errors in portions of Prairie Canada and the
north-central U.S ............................................................................................................................... 51
Appendix J. Canada goose population indices during 1969-2003............................................................. 52
Appendix K. Population indices for snow geese, greater white-fronted geese, brant, emperor
geese, and tundra swans during 1969-2003..................................................................................... 53
4
List of duck tables
Table 1. Estimated number of May ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the north-central U.S. ......... 8
Table 2. Total duck breeding population estimates ................................................................................... 10
Table 3. Mallard breeding population estimates ........................................................................................ 11
Table 4. Estimated number of July ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the north-central U.S. ........ 15
Table 5. Duck breeding population estimates for the traditional survey area............................................ 16
Table 6. Duck breeding population estimates for the 10 most abundant species in the eastern
survey area....................................................................................................................................... 16
List of duck figures
Figure 1. May pond numbers and confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the north-central U.S. ..... 8
Figure 2. Breeding population estimates and confidence intervals for selected species in the traditional
survey area ...................................................................................................................................... 12
Figure 3. July pond numbers and confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the north-central U.S. .... 15
Figure 4. Estimates and confidence intervals for the mallard fall flight index............................................ 21
List of goose and swan figures
Figure 1. Important goose nesting areas in arctic and subarctic North America...................................... 24
Figure 2. Satellite imagery of snow and ice coverage in North America during June .............................. 25
Figure 3. Approximate ranges of Canada goose populations in North America....................................... 26
Figures 4-18. Population indices of Canada geese in North America ................................................. 25-32
Figure 19. Geographic ranges of brant, snow, Ross’s, and white-fronted geese in North America......... 32
Figures 20-26, 28. Population indices of North American brant, snow, Ross’s, and white-fronted,
and emperor geese in North America ......................................................................................... 34-37
Figure 27. Approximate ranges of emperor goose, and eastern and western swan populations in North
America ........................................................................................................................................... 37
Figure 29. Population indices of tundra swans in North America ............................................................. 38
5
STATUS OF DUCKS
Abstract: In the Breeding Population and Habitat Survey traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50, and 75-77),
the total duck population estimate was 36.2 ± 0.7 (±1 standard error) million birds, 16% above last year’s
estimate of 31.2 ± 0.5 million birds (P<0.001), and 9% above the 1955-2002 long-term average
(P<0.001). Mallard abundance was 7.9 ± 0.3 million birds, similar to last year’s estimate of 7.5 ± 0.2
million birds (P=0.220) and to the long-term average (P=0.100). Blue-winged teal were 5.5 ± 0.3 million
birds, 31% above last year’s estimate of 4.2 ± 0.2 million birds (P=0.001) and 23% above the long-term
average (P=0.001). Shovelers (3.6 ± 0.2 million; +56%) and pintails (2.6 ± 0.2 million; +43%) were above
their 2002 estimates (P<0.001), while gadwall (2.5 ± 0.2 million), American wigeon (2.6 ± 0.2 million),
green-winged teal (2.7 ± 0.2 million), redheads (0.6 ± 0.1 million), canvasbacks (0.6 ± 0.1 million), and
scaup (3.7 ± 0.2 million) were unchanged from their 2002 estimates (P=0.149). Gadwall (+55%) and
shovelers (+72%) were above their long-term averages (P<0.001). Green-winged teal were at their
second highest level since 1955, 46% above their long-term average (P<0.001). Pintails (-39%) and
scaup (-29%) remained well below their long-term averages (P<0.001). American wigeon, redheads, and
canvasbacks were unchanged from their long-term averages (P=0.582). Total May ponds (Prairie Canada
and the north-central U.S.) at 5.2 ± 0.2 million was 91% higher than last year (P<0.001) and 7% above
the long-term average (P=0.034). Canadian and U.S. ponds were 3.5 ± 0.2 and 1.7 ± 0.1 million
respectively and both above 2002 (+145% and +30%. P<0.001). Canadian ponds were similar to their
1961-2002 average (P=0.297), while U.S. ponds were 10% above their 1974-2002 average (P=0.037).
The projected mallard fall flight index was 10.3 ± 0.9 million birds. The eastern survey area was comprised
of strata 51-56 and 62-69. The 2003 total-duck population estimate for this area was 3.6 ± 0.3 million
birds, 17% lower than last year (4.4 ± 0.3 million birds, P=0.065), but similar to the 1996-2002 average
(P=0.266). Individual species estimates were similar to last year and to their 1996-2002 averages, with
the exception of mergansers (0.6 ± 0.1 million), which decreased 30% from its 2002 estimate (P=0.035).
This section summarizes the most recent
information about the status of North American duck
populations and their habitats in order to facilitate
development of harvest regulations in the U.S. The
annual status of these populations is monitored using
a variety of databases, which include estimates of the
size of breeding populations, production, and harvest.
The data and analyses were the most current
available when this report was written. Future
analyses may yield slightly different results as
databases are updated and new analytical
procedures become available.
METHODS
Breeding Population and Habitat Survey
Federal, provincial, and state agencies conduct
surveys each spring to estimate the size of breeding
populations and to evaluate the condition of the
habitats. These surveys are conducted using fixed-wing
aircraft and cover over 2.0 million square miles
that encompass principal breeding areas of North
America. The traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-
50, and 75-77) is comprised of parts of Alaska,
Canada, and the north-central U.S., and includes
approximately 1.3 million square miles (Appendix C).
The eastern survey area (strata 51-56 and 62-69)
includes parts of Ontario, Quebec, Labrador,
Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island,
New Brunswick, New York and Maine, covering an
area of approximately 0.7 million square miles.
In Prairie Canada and the north-central U.S.,
estimates are corrected annually for visibility bias
by conducting ground counts. In the northern
portions of the traditional survey area and the
eastern survey area, duck estimates are adjusted
using visibility correction factors derived from a
comparison of airplane and helicopter counts. For
the 2003 eastern survey, these correction factors
were updated only in areas where helicopter
surveys were flown, strata 62-65, 68, and 69.
Annual estimates of duck abundance are available
since 1955 for the traditional survey area and for
all strata in the eastern survey area since 1996,
although portions of the eastern survey area have
been surveyed since 1990. In the traditional
survey area, estimates of pond abundance in
Prairie Canada are available since 1961 and in
the north-central U.S. since 1974. Several
provinces and states also conduct breeding
waterfowl surveys using various methods; some
have survey designs that allow calculation of
measures of precision for their estimates.
Information about habitat conditions was supplied
primarily by biologists working in the survey areas.
However, much ancillary weather information was
6
obtained from agricultural and weather internet
sites (see references).
Production and Habitat Survey
In July, aerial observers assess summer habitat
conditions and duck production in a portion of the
traditional survey area (strata 20-49 and 75-77). This
survey provides indices of duck brood and pond
numbers. Ground counts are not conducted
concurrently with July aerial surveys, so indices of
duck broods and ponds are not corrected for visibility
bias. The coefficients of variation for May pond
estimates are used to estimate the precision of July
pond counts.
Total Duck Species Composition
In the traditional survey area, our estimate of total
ducks excludes scoters (Melanitta spp.), eiders
(Somateria and Polysticta spp.), long-tailed ducks
(Clangula hyemalis), mergansers (Mergus and
Lophodytes spp.), and wood ducks (Aix sponsa),
because the traditional survey area does not cover a
large portion of their breeding range. However,
scoters and mergansers breed throughout a large
portion of the eastern survey area. Therefore, in
2000, we redefined the total duck species
composition in this region to include these species,
and recalculated historical estimates to reflect this
change. Canvasbacks, redheads, and ruddy ducks
(Oxyura jamaicensis) are excluded from the eastern
total-duck estimate because these species rarely
breed there. Due to the added survey areas and
change in total duck composition, estimates for the
eastern survey area published in this document are
not comparable to those published in status reports
prior to 2000. Wood ducks are also not included in
the total duck estimate for the eastern survey area,
even though this species breeds over much of the
region, as their wooded habitats make them difficult
to detect from the air.
Mallard Fall-flight Index
The mallard fall-flight index predicts the size of
the fall population originating from the mid-continent
region of North America. For
management purposes, the mid-continent
population is comprised of mallards originating
from the traditional survey area, as well as
Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The index is
based on the mallard models used for Adaptive
Harvest Management, and considers breeding
population size, habitat conditions, adult summer
survival, and projected fall age ratio (young/adult).
The projected fall age ratio is predicted from a
model that depicts how the age ratio varies with
changes in spring population size and pond
abundance. The fall-flight index represents a
weighted average of the fall flights predicted by
the four alternative models of mallard population
dynamics used in Adaptive Harvest Management
(U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2003).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
2002 in Review
Below-average winter and spring precipitation
in the prairies and parklands and cold spring
temperatures in the East had resulted in generally
poorer habitat conditions for breeding waterfowl in
2002 than in 2001. Dry conditions were reflected
in pond numbers. Total May ponds (Prairie
Canada and the north-central U.S.) were 2.7 ± 0.1
million, which was the second lowest count
recorded since this estimate was first calculated in
1974. That value was 41% below the 2001
estimate of 4.6 ± 0.1 million (P< 0.001), and 45%
below (P<0.001) the long-term average (4.9 ± 0.1
million). May ponds in Canada (1.4 ± 0.1 million)
and the U.S. (1.3 ± 0.1 million) were below 2001
estimates (-48% in Canada and -32% in the U.S;
P<0.001) and their long-term averages (-58% in
Canada and -16% in the U.S; P<0.001).
Canadian May ponds were the lowest recorded
since standardized pond counts began in 1961.
In both the traditional and eastern survey areas,
most regions entered the spring of 2002 with a
water deficit remaining from winter. Spring rains
helped recharge wetlands in most of the
Northeast, but conditions remained very dry in the
West. Western Montana, southern Saskatchewan,
and much of southern Manitoba and southern and
central Alberta were hardest hit by drought.
Fewer ponds available to nesting birds caused
crowding on remaining ponds. A bright spot on the
prairies was the Dakotas, where permanent
wetlands remained in good condition following the
wet period of 1993-2001. However, survey results
suggested that many prairie-nesting species such
as mallards, shovelers, pintails, and blue-winged
teal, flew over the prairies and parklands to the
boreal forest, where wetland conditions were more
stable.
Cold spring temperatures also negatively
affected nesting waterfowl in 2002. Winter-like
conditions hit the entire surveyed area in early
May, when snowstorms and cold temperatures
caused birds to halt migration for several weeks.
Snow and cold may have caused some nest loss
7
in the prairies and parklands. Spring ice break-up
was several weeks late over much of the northern
survey areas. Break-up was so late in parts of the
Northeast that biologists predicted little nesting
activity in these areas. Conditions in northern
Canada were generally good, but cold
temperatures likely had a negative impact on early
nesting species such as mallards, green-winged
teal, and pintails. The only region where habitat
conditions for breeding waterfowl improved over
2001 was Alaska, due to warmer post-thaw
temperatures than the previous year. However,
rapid ice melt likely caused flooding of nests in
parts of Alaska as well as in Labrador.
Late in the nesting season, water conditions
improved in Montana, the western Dakotas,
southern Saskatchewan, and southern Alberta. In
mid-June, these areas received several inches to
a foot or more of rain and/or snow. However,
most biologists thought this precipitation came too
late to help all but the latest nesting waterfowl.
In the traditional survey area, the total duck
population estimate was 31.2 ± 0.5 million birds,
14% below (P<0.001) the 2001 estimate of 36.1 ±
0.6 million birds, and 6% below (P<0.001) the
1955-2001 average. Total duck numbers
decreased compared to 2001, but remained
above long-term averages in Alaska and the
eastern Dakotas (P<0.001). Counts in southern
Alberta were unchanged from 2001, but were 47%
below the long-term average (P<0.001). Total
duck estimates decreased relative to 2001 and
were below long-term averages in southern
Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, and in
Montana and the western Dakotas (P<0.037).
Perhaps reflecting over-flight of the prairies in
favor of the boreal forest, estimates in northern
Saskatchewan and Manitoba and western Ontario
were up 70% compared to 2001 (P<0.001), and
were 27% higher than the long-term average
(P<0.001). Counts in central and northern
Alberta, northeast British Columbia and the
Northwest Territories were also higher than in
2001 (+20%, P=0.003), but slightly below the
long-term average (P=0.020) The 2002 total duck
population estimate for the eastern survey area
was 4.4 ± 0.3 million birds. That estimate was
32% higher than the previous year's (3.3 ± 0.3
million birds, P=0.007), and 41% higher than the
1996-2001 average (P<0.001).
Results of the July Production Survey indicated
that the number of ponds in Prairie Canada and
the north-central U.S. combined was 1.8 ± 0.1
million ponds. This was 36% below the 2001
estimate of 2.9 ± 0.1 million ponds (P<0.001), and
33% below the long-term average (P<0.001). July
ponds in Prairie Canada were at 1.0 + 0.1 million.
This was 46% below the 2001 estimate of 1.8 ±
0.07 million (P<0.001) and 43% below the long-term
average (P<0.001). July ponds in the north-central
U.S. were estimated at 0.84 ± 0.04 million.
This was 19% below previous year’s estimate of
1.0 ± 0.06 million (P=0.007), but similar to the
long-term average (P=0.299). The number of
broods in the north-central U.S. and Prairie
Canada combined was 352,600, 35% lower than
the 2001 estimate, and 25% below the long-term
average. The number of broods in Prairie Canada
and the north-central U.S. were 54% and 37%
below 2001 estimates, respectively. Brood
indices in Prairie Canada were 69% below the
long-term average, while brood counts were 12%
above the long-term average in the north-central
U.S. The brood index in the Canadian boreal
forest was 21% higher than the previous year’s,
but 16% below the long-term average. The late-nesting
index, that is, the number of pairs and
lone drakes without broods seen during July
surveys, was 9% higher than in 2001 but 43%
lower than the long-term average, for all areas
combined.
2003 Breeding Habitat Conditions, Popula-tions,
and Production
Overall Habitat and Population Status
Habitat conditions for breeding waterfowl have
greatly improved over last year in most of the
prairie survey areas. These improved conditions
are reflected in the numbers of ponds counted this
year. The estimate of May ponds (U.S. Prairies
and Prairie and Parkland Canada combined) of
5.2 ± 0.2 million (Table 1, Figure 1, Appendix D)
was 91% higher than last year (P<0.001) and 7%
above the long-term average (P=0.034). Numbers
of ponds in Canada (3.5 ± 0.2 million) and the
U.S. (1.7 ± 0.1 million) were above 2002
estimates (+145% in Canada and +30% in the
U.S.; P<0.001). Canadian ponds were similar to
the 1961-2002 average (P=0.297), while ponds in
the U.S. were 10% above the 1974-2002 average
(P=0.037).
Most prairie areas had warm temperatures and
abundant rain this spring. Two areas of dramatic
improvement over the past several years were
south-central Alberta and southern
Saskatchewan, where conditions went from poor
to good after much needed precipitation relieved
several years of drought. Other areas in the
prairies also improved over 2002, but to a lesser
extent. However, years of drought in parts of the
U.S. and Canadian prairies, combined with inten-
8
Table 1. Estimated number (in thousands) of May ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the northcentral U.S.
Change from 2002 Change from LTA
Survey Area 2002 2003 % P LTAa % P
Prairie Canada
S. Alberta 477 888 +86 <0.001 722 +23 0.008
S. Saskatchewan 635 2143 +238 <0.001 1960 +9 0.185
S. Manitoba 327 491 +50 0.031 679 -28 <0.001
Subtotal 1439 3522 +145 <0.001 3361 +5 0.297
Northcentral U.S.
Montana and Western Dakotas 347 480 +38 0.001 523 -8 0.136
Eastern Dakotas 934 1188 +27 0.002 1000 +19 0.003
Subtotal 1281 1668 +30 <0.001 1523 +10 0.037
Grand Total 2720 5190 +91 <0.001 4830 +7 0.034
aLong-term average. Prairie Canada, 1961-2002; northcentral U.S. and Grand Total, 1974-2002.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Millions
Northcentral U.S.
Prairie Canada
Total
Year
Figure 1. Number of ponds in May and 95% confidence intervals in Prairie Canada and the Northcentral U.S.
9
sive agricultural practices, have reduced the
quality and quantity of residual nesting cover and
over-water nesting sites in many regions. This
could limit production for both dabbling and diving
ducks, if the warm spring temperatures and good
moisture of 2003 did not result in rapid growth of
new cover. Eastern South Dakota was the one
area of the prairies where wetland habitat
conditions were generally worse than last year,
mostly due to low soil moisture, little winter
precipitation, and no significant rains in April. This
region received several inches of rain in May, but
by then most birds had probably flown to other
regions with more favorable wetland conditions.
In the northern part of the traditional survey area,
habitat was in generally good condition and most
areas had normal water levels. The exception was
northern Manitoba, where low water levels in
small streams and beaver ponds resulted in
overall breeding habitat conditions that were only
fair. Warm spring temperatures arrived much
earlier this year than the exceptionally late spring
last year. However, a cold snap in early May
could have hurt early nesting species such as
mallards and pintails, particularly in the northern
Northwest Territories.
Habitat conditions in the eastern survey area
ranged from excellent to fair. In the southern and
western part of this survey area, water and
nesting cover were plentiful and temperatures
were mild this spring. Habitat quality decreased to
the north, especially in northern and western
Quebec, where many shallow marshes and bogs
were either completely dry or reduced to mudflats.
Beaver pond habitat was also noticeably less
common than normal. To the east in Maine and
most of the Atlantic provinces, conditions were
excellent, with adequate water, vegetation, and
warm spring temperatures.
In the traditional survey area, the total duck
population estimate (excluding scoters, eiders,
long-tailed ducks, mergansers, and wood ducks)
was 36.2 ± 0.7 million birds, 16% above (P<0.001)
last year’s estimate of 31.2 ± 0.5 million birds, and
9% above the 1955-2002 long-term average
(P<0.001, Table 2, Table 5, Appendix G). In the
eastern Dakotas, total duck numbers decreased
by 21% compared to last year, but remained 25%
above the long-term average (P<0.001). Counts
in southern Alberta were unchanged from last
year, and remained 38% below the long-term
average (P<0.001). Total duck estimates
increased compared to last year in southern
Manitoba, Montana and the western Dakotas,
southern Saskatchewan, and Alaska (P<0.012)
and were above long-term averages in the latter
two regions (P<0.001). Counts in central and
northern Alberta, northeast British Columbia and
the Northwest Territories were similar to last
year's but slightly below the long-term average
(P=0.017, Table 2). Counts in northern
Saskatchewan and Manitoba and western Ontario
were down 21% from 2002 estimates (P=0.003),
but unchanged from the long-term average. The
2003 total duck population estimate for the
eastern survey area was 3.6 ± 0.3 million birds.
This estimate is 17% lower than last year's (4.4 ±
0.3 million birds, P=0.065), and similar to the
1996-2002 average (P=0.266). The estimate
differs from that reported in Wilkins and Otto
(2003) due to updating of some visual correction
factors. In some other areas where surveys are
conducted, measures of precision for estimates are
provided (British Columbia, California, northeastern
U.S., and Wisconsin). Total duck abundance was
similar to last year’s estimate and long-term average
in British Columbia and the northeastern U.S.
(P>0.171). In California, the total duck estimate was
up 36% relative to 2002 (P=0.030), and was similar
to the long-term average. Of the states without
measures of precision for total duck numbers,
Nevada's estimate increased from 2002, but
estimates for Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, and
Washington all decreased compared to last year.
Trends and annual breeding population estimates
for 10 principal duck species from the traditional
survey area are provided in Figure 2, Table 5, and
Appendix F. The dashed lines in the species graphs
in Figure 2 represent the population goal of the North
American Waterfowl Management Plan for the
traditional survey area. Mallard abundance was 7.9
± 0.3 million, which is statistically similar to last year’s
estimate of 7.5 ± 0.2 million (P=0.220), and right at
the long-term average (P=0.100, Tables 3 and 5).
Mallard numbers dropped significantly in the eastern
Dakotas and in central and northern Alberta, N.E.
British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories
compared to 2002 (P<0.004). However, numbers in
the eastern Dakotas remained well above average,
while estimates for central and northern Alberta, N.E.
British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories were
below the long-term average. In Montana and the
western Dakotas, northern Saskatchewan--northern
Manitoba--western Ontario and southern Alberta,
mallard numbers did not change relative to last year,
but were similar to their long term averages in the first
two areas, and in southern Alberta, remained well
below it (-44%, P=0.001). In Alaska, southern
Saskatchewan, and southern Manitoba, mallard
numbers were up compared to 2002 (P<0.048), but
were similar to the long-term average in southern
Saskatchewan, well above it in Alaska (P<0.001),
10
Table 2. Total ducka breeding population estimates (in thousands).
Change from 2002 Change from LTA
Region 2002 2003 % P LTAb % P
Traditional Survey Area
Alaska - Yukon Territory
- Old Crow Flats 4961 5705 +15 0.006 3433 +66 <0.001
C. & N. Alberta - N.E. British Columbia
- Northwest Territories 6584 6461 -2 0.775 7245 -11 0.017
N. Saskatchewan - N. Manitoba
- W. Ontario
4502 3564 -21 0.003 3553 0 0.959
S. Alberta 2364 2696 +14 0.117 4376 -38 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 3547 9296 +162 <0.001 7327 +27 <0.001
S. Manitoba 1304 1582 +21 0.012 1543 +3 0.650
Montana and Western Dakotas 1334 1731 +30 0.003 1618 +7 0.305
Eastern Dakotas 6585 5190 -21 <0.001 4147 +25 <0.001
Total 31181 36225 +16 <0.001 33243 +9 <0.001
Eastern Survey Area 4399 3635 -17 0.065 3301 +10 0.266
Other Regions
British Columbia c 9 8 -4 0.899 8 +9 0.725
California 392 534 +36 0.030 614 -13 0.177
Northeastern U.S. d 1466 1304 -11 0.171 1407 -7 0.241
Wisconsin 913 698 -24 0.060 431 +62 e
a Excludes eider, long-tailed duck, wood duck, scoter, and merganser in traditional survey area; excludes eider, long-tailed duck, wood duck, redhead,
canvasback and ruddy duck in eastern survey area; species composition for other regions varies.
b Long-term average. Traditional survey area=1955-2002; eastern survey area=1996-2002; years for other regions vary (see Appendix E).
c Index to waterfowl use in prime waterfowl producing regions of the province.
d Includes all or portions of CT, DE, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT, and VA.
e Not estimable from current survey.
11
Table 3. Mallard breeding population estimates (in thousands).
Change from 2002 Change from LTA
Region 2002 2003 % P LTAa % P
Traditional Survey Area
Alaska - Yukon Territory
- Old Crow Flats 667 843 +26 0.036 330 +155 <0.001
C. & N. Alberta - N.E. British Columbia
- Northwest Territories 1182 852 -28 0.027 1108 -23 0.004
N. Saskatchewan - N. Manitoba
- W. Ontario
1115 1103 -1 0.949 1162 -5 0.679
S. Alberta 793 627 -21 0.147 1128 -44 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 1213 2111 +74 <0.001 2088 +1 0.880
S. Manitoba 401 505 +26 0.048 374 +35 0.005
Montana and Western Dakotas 428 506 +18 0.257 502 +1 0.938
Eastern Dakotas 1704 1402 -18 0.031 811 +73 <0.001
Total 7504 7950 +6 0.220 7503 +6 0.100
Eastern Survey Area 295 383 +30 0.203 302 +27 0.180
Other Regions
British Columbia b 1 1 -7 0.570 1 -32 <0.001
California 265 337 +27 0.221 386 -13 0.356
Michigan c 337 294 -13 0.702 449 -35 0.031
Minnesota 367 281 -23 0.136 217 +29 e
Northeastern U.S. d 833 732 -12 0.166 764 -4 0.522
Wisconsin 373 276 -26 0.090 173 +60 e
a Long-term average. Traditional survey area=1955-2002; eastern survey area=1996-2002; years for other regions vary (see Appendix E).
b Index to waterfowl in prime waterfowl producing regions of the province.
c Estimates do not match those from previous reports because they have been recalculated.
d Includes all or portions of CT, DE, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT, and VA.
e Value for test statistic was not available.
Figure 2. Breeding population estimates, 95% confidence intervals, and North American Waterfowl Management
Plan population goal (dashed line) for selected species in the traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50, 75-77).
12
Mallard
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
American wigeon
0
1
2
3
4
5
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Gadwall
0
1
2
3
4
5
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Blue-winged teal
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions Green-winged teal
0
1
2
3
4
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Total ducks
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Figure 2 continued.
13
Northern pintail
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Canvasback
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Redhead
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Scaup
0
2
4
6
8
10
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Northern shoveler
0
1
2
3
4
5
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
American black duck
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Millions
Mississippi Flyway
Atlantic Flyway
Total
14
and below it in southern Manitoba (P=0.005). In other
areas where surveys are conducted and measures of
precision for estimates are provided (the same states
as for total ducks, as well as Michigan and
Minnesota), mallard abundance remained
unchanged from 2002, with the exception of
Wisconsin, where mallards were down 26%
(P=0.090). Mallard estimates were below the long-term
average in Michigan and British Columbia
(P<0.031) and similar to it in the northeastern U.S.
and California (P>0.356). In Nebraska, Nevada and
Washington, estimates of precision are unavailable,
but mallard counts were down relative to last year's in
Nebraska and Washington, and increased in
Nevada.
Blue-winged teal abundance was estimated to
be 5.5 ± 0.3 million birds, 31% above (P=0.001)
last year’s estimate of 4.2 ± 0.2 million, and 23%
(P=0.001) higher than the 1955-2002 average.
Northern shoveler and northern pintail counts
were 56% and 43% higher than last year's,
respectively (P<0.001). Counts of all of the other
10 most abundant species in the traditional survey
area remained unchanged relative to 2002 counts.
Gadwall (+55%), green-winged teal (+46%), and
northern shovelers (+72%) all remained above
their long-term averages (P<0.001), whereas
pintail (-39%), and scaup (-29%) numbers
remained below long-term averages (P<0.001).
Redhead, canvasback, and American wigeon
numbers were similar to their long-term averages.
Estimates for most of the 10 principal species in
the eastern survey area were similar to 2002
estimates and to long-term averages, with the
exception of mergansers (0.6 + 0.1 million) which
were 30% below their 2002 count (P=0.035) but
similar to their long-term average (P=0.635).
The status of the American black duck (Anas
rubripes) has been monitored primarily by mid-winter
surveys conducted in January in states of the Atlantic
and Mississippi Flyways. The trend in the winter
index for the total population is depicted in Figure 2.
Mid-winter counts of black ducks declined relative to
2002 counts in both flyways. Over both flyways,
248,900 black ducks were estimated from mid-winter
inventories. This was 15% lower than the 2002 index
(294,700), and 11% lower than the 10-year mean
(279,800). In the Atlantic Flyway, the mid-winter
index of 224,600 was down 12% from 255,300 in
2002, and was similar to the most recent 10-year
mean (225,900). In the Mississippi Flyway, the mid-winter
estimate decreased 38% from 39,400 in 2002
to 24,300, which is 45% below the 10-year mean
(53,900). In the eastern survey area, the 2003
estimate for breeding black ducks (533,000) was
down 12%, but was statistically similar to the 2002
estimate (603,000) and the 1996-2002 average
(493,000).
Trends in wood duck populations are monitored by
the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), a
series of roadside routes surveyed during May and
June each year. Wood ducks are encountered with
low frequency along BBS routes, limiting the amount
and quality of available information for analysis
(Sauer and Droege 1990). However, the BBS
provides the only long-term indices of this species'
regional populations. Trend analysis suggests that
wood duck numbers increased 4% per year over the
long-term (1966-2002, P<0.001)) and 3% over the
short-term (1980-2002, P=0.019). Specifically, in the
Atlantic Flyway, the BBS indicates a 5.4% annual
increase in wood ducks over the long-term (P<0.001)
and a 3.6% annual increase over the short-term
(P=0.019). In the Mississippi Flyway, the BBS
indicates a 3.6% annual increase over the long-term
(P<0.001), and a 2.9% annual increase over the
short-term (P=0.041, J. Sauer, U. S. Geological
Survey/Biological Resources Division, unpublished
data).
Weather and habitat conditions during the
summer months can influence waterfowl
production. Good wetland conditions increase
renesting effort and brood survival. July wetland
conditions were rated fair to good over most of
prairie Canada, the Dakotas and eastern
Montana, but poor conditions prevailed in eastern
South Dakota, south-central Manitoba, central
Saskatchewan, and north-central Montana.
However, uniformly good conditions were found in
the northern portions of all the prairie provinces,
and spring and summer rains made for good to
excellent conditions along the border between
Saskatchewan and eastern Montana.
Results of the July Production Survey indicate
that the number of ponds in Prairie Canada and
the north-central U.S. combined was 2.5 ± 0.08
million ponds (Fig. 3, Table 4, Appendix I). This
was 35% above last year’s estimate of 1.8 ± 0.1
million ponds (P<0.001), and 8% below the long-term
average (P=0.082). July ponds in Prairie
Canada were at 1.5 + 0.06 million. This was 47%
above last year’s estimate of 1.0 ± 0.1 million
(P=0.001) but 16% below the long-term average
(P<0.005). July ponds in the north-central U.S.
were estimated at 1.0 ± 0.04 million. This was
21% above last year’s estimate of 0.84 ± 0.04
million (P=0.002), but similar to the long-term
average. The number of broods in the north-central
U.S. and Prairie Canada combined was
434,900, 23% higher than last year’s estimate,
and 7% below the long-term average. The late-nesting
index, the number of pairs and lone
15
Table 4. Estimated number (in thousands) of July ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the north-central U.S.
Change from 2002 Change from LTA
Survey Area 2002 2003 % P LTAa % P
Prairie Canada
S. Alberta 319 369 +16 0.259 458 -19 0.011
S. Saskatchewan 396 855 +116 <0.001 939 -9 0.343
S. Manitoba 282 241 -14 0.518 343 -30 <0.001
Subtotal 997 1465 +47 0.001 1740 -16 0.005
North-central U.S.
Montana and Western Dakotas 304 358 +18 0.108 373 -4 0.611
Eastern Dakotas 536 661 +23 0.010 542 +22 0.064
Subtotal 840 1018 +21 0.002 915 +11 0.142
Grand Total 1836 2483 +35 0.001 2714 -8 0.082
aLong-term average. Prairie Canada, 1961-2002; north-central U.S. and Grand Total, 1974-2002
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Millions
North-central U.S.
Prairie Canada
Total
Year
Fig. 3. Number of ponds in July and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the north-central U.S.
16
Table 5. Duck breeding population estimates (in thousands) for the 10 most abundant species in the traditional
survey area.
Change from 2002 Change from LTA
Species 2002 2003 % P LTA a % P
Mallard 7504 7950 +6 0.220 7503 +6 0.100
Gadwall 2235 2549 +14 0.149 1646 +55 <0.001
American wigeon 2334 2551 +9 0.299 2639 -3 0.582
Green-winged teal 2333 2678 +15 0.161 1832 +46 <0.001
Blue-winged teal 4206 5518 +31 0.001 4487 +23 0.001
Northern shoveler 2318 3620 +56 <0.001 2104 +72 <0.001
Northern pintail 1790 2558 +43 <0.001 4216 -39 <0.001
Redhead 565 637 +13 0.420 625 +2 0.838
Canvasback 487 558 +15 0.275 562 -1 0.931
Scaup (greater and lesser combined) 3524 3734 +6 0.495 5281 -29 <0.001
Total ducks b 31181 36225 +16 <0.001 33243 +9 <0.001
a Long-term average (1955-2002).
b Includes black duck, ring-necked duck, goldeneyes, bufflehead, and ruddy duck in addition to species in table. Excludes scoter, eider, long-tailed
duck, mergansers, and wood duck.
Table 6. Duck breeding population estimates (in thousands) for the 10 most abundant species in the eastern survey
area.
Change from 2002 Change from LTA
Species 2002 2003 % P LTA a % P
Mergansers (common, red-breasted, & hooded) 815 569 -30 0.035 532 +7 0.635
Mallard 295 383 +30 0.203 302 +27 0.180
American black duck 603 533 -12 0.504 493 +8 0.542
American wigeon 87 79 -9 0.856 67 +18 0.721
Green-winged teal 604 452 -25 0.389 342 +32 0.372
Lesser scaup 136 101 -26 0.507 78 +30 0.383
Ring-necked duck 416 399 -4 0.827 490 -19 0.128
Goldeneye (common & Barrow’s) 955 768 -20 0.530 743 +3 0.911
Bufflehead 84 66 -21 0.521 59 +12 0.699
Scoters (surf, black, & white-winged) 314 237 -25 0.447 142 +67 0.171
Total b 4399 3635 -17 0.065 3301 +10 0.266
a Long-term average (1996-2002).
b Includes gadwall, northern shoveler, northern pintail, and scaup in addition to species in table. Excludes eiders, long-tailed duck, wood duck,
redhead, canvasback, and ruddy duck.
17
drakes without broods seen during July surveys,
was 17% lower than last year, and 51% lower
than the long-term average, for all areas
combined. The number of broods in Prairie
Canada and the north-central U.S. were 142%
and 18% higher than last year’s estimates,
respectively. Brood indices in Prairie Canada
were 24% below the long-term average, while
brood counts were 31% above the long-term
average in the north-central U.S. The brood index
in the Canadian boreal forest was 72% lower than
last year’s, and 76% below the long-term average.
The late-nesting index was down 43% and 30%
relative to 2002 in boreal Canada and Prairie
Canada, respectively, but up 67% in the north-central
U.S. Late nesting indices were below
long-term averages by 74% in boreal Canada, by
43% in the north-central U.S., and by 46% in
Prairie Canada.
Regional Habitat and Population Status
A description of habitat conditions, populations,
and production for each for the major breeding areas
follows. More detailed reports of specific regions are
available in Waterfowl Population Surveys reports,
located on the Division of Migratory Bird
Management’s home page. Some of the habitat
information that follows was taken from these reports
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.html).
Southern Alberta: Late winter/early spring
snowstorms brought some relief from the dry
winter experienced in southern Alberta.
Precipitation since April 1 was well above (150%
to 545%) normal in the prairies and southern
Aspen Parklands of southern Alberta. Although
much of this moisture soaked directly into the dry
soil, improvement in wetland conditions was seen
in Strata 26-29, especially along the Milk River
Ridge, Brooks and Hanna areas. The high-mountain
snow pack provided near normal run-off
this spring and early summer. Habitat conditions
in the majority of Alberta's prairie and Aspen
Parkland regions were rated as fair to poor in the
east and good in the central and western portions.
Though the very dry soils consumed much of the
spring moisture, pond counts were well above last
year's. Overall, pond counts and duck numbers
were well above last year's figures in southern
Alberta. May ponds were up 86% relative to 2002
(P<0.001), and were 23% above the long-term
average (P=0.008). Total duck, mallard, gadwall,
green-winged teal, blue-winged teal, and scaup
estimates did not change relative to 2002, but all
remained below long-term averages (P<0.036).
Northern pintail (+245%, P<0.001) and American
wigeon (+70%, P=0.066) numbers increased
relative to 2002, but remained below long-term
averages (P<0.001). Northern shovelers and
canvasbacks increased relative to last year's
counts, but shovelers were the only species above
the long-term average in southern Alberta (+27%,
P=0.053) this year. Redhead numbers remained
unchanged from last year's count and from their
long-term average. July wetland conditions were
rated good in the western portion of the survey
area, fair to the east, poor along a portion of the
Saskatchewan border, and excellent in a portion
of stratum 26. The July pond index was similar to
that of 2003, and 19% below the long-term
average (P=0.011). The July brood index was up
55% relative to last year's, but remained 58%
below the long-term average. The late-nesting
index was 29% below last year's, and 44% below
the long-term average.
Southern Saskatchewan: Wetland habitat
improved from 2002 in the grassland portion of the
survey area (strata 32-33) and the majority of the
basins in the southwest and central grasslands
were full during the May survey. Ephemeral and
temporary wetlands were abundant in areas of the
southwest and central grasslands. Seasonal
wetlands were abundant, and they lasted into July
and provided good habitat for broods. The
northwest Parklands (stratum 30) were still dry
and some areas were worse than 2002. Other
areas showed some signs of recovery with water
in basins, but all areas had poor habitat for
waterfowl nesting and brood rearing. No
ephemeral or temporary wetlands were observed
and very few seasonal wetlands were seen.
Wetland and upland habitat in the northeast
Parklands (stratum 31) showed improvement in
the southern and eastern portions of the stratum.
Northern areas of the stratum were still dry and in
poor condition. August and fall rains improved
cover before it went dormant; therefore, residual
cover used for nesting was good in the southern
part of the stratum.
Spring runoff occurred twice in most of the
province. Heavy snowfall in early April created a
second runoff that filled most dugouts, lakes, and
reservoirs in the province and improved conditions
early enough to keep ducks in the province. The
exception was in the northwest and west-central
areas of the survey area, which did not benefit
from the early April snowstorm. Central
18
Saskatchewan bordering Manitoba was much
improved relative to 2002.
The May pond estimate was up 238% from last
year's extremely low counts (P<0.001), and was
similar to the long-term average. Total ducks
(+162%, +27% LTA), gadwall (+199%, +100%
LTA), blue-winged teal (+188%, +60% LTA),
northern shovelers (+364%, +134% LTA), and
redheads (+186%, +44% LTA) were higher than
2002 estimates (P<0.001) and their long-term
averages (P<0.070). Northern pintails (+446%,
-20% LTA), and scaup (+68%, -41% LTA) were up
relative to 2002 estimates (P<0.067) but remained
below their long-term averages (P<0.001). Green-winged
teal and canvasbacks were 114% and
166% higher than their 2002 estimates (P<0.002),
respectively, but similar to their long-term
averages. American wigeon estimates were
unchanged from 2002, and 50% below their long-term
average (P<0.001).
Thunderstorms were the primary source of
precipitation during June and July and the amount
received across the province varied widely. The
southwest and the west-central areas around
Moose Jaw and Swift Current received well-above
average precipitation during June. The extreme
northwest also received much needed rains and
was above average for the month. The northeast,
south, southeast, and central portions of the
survey area received below-average precipitation
during June. The remainder the survey area
received average precipitation. Brood habitat
dried up in central portions of the survey unit and
areas rated as fair for production in May were
lowered to poor. The July pond index was 116%
above the 2002 estimate (P<0.001), and similar to
the long-term average. July brood indices were
267% higher than last year's and 7% above the
long-term average. The late-nesting index was
similar to last year's, but 51% below the long-term
average.
Southern Manitoba: The winter of 2002-03 was
warm and dry, which did very little to improve the
drought conditions of the past several years in
southern Manitoba (strata 36-40). However, during
late April and into early May, moisture conditions
in south-central Manitoba improved rapidly, and
many areas had higher water levels than in 2002.
These higher water levels and cultivation of
wetland margins made for more deep ponds that
are favored by divers, but little upland nesting
cover for dabblers. Moreover, other areas, namely
eastern and central Manitoba, missed much of this
precipitation and remained dry throughout the
spring. Nonetheless, nesting habitat improved
over 2002 and ponds and breeding waterfowl both
increased, which boded well for good production.
May pond counts were 50% above the 2002
estimate but remained 28% below the long-term
average (P<0.031). Total duck (+21%), blue-winged
teal (+82%), and green-winged teal (+90%)
estimates were higher than 2002 estimates
(P<0.024), and unchanged from their long-term
averages. Mallard numbers were 26% higher than
2002 estimates (P=0.048), and 35% higher than the
long-term average (P=0.005). Northern shovelers
and redheads were similar to 2002 and their long-term
averages (P>0.282). American wigeon, northern
pintail, canvasback and scaup estimates were similar
to 2002 numbers, but were 76%, 66%, 25% and 65%
below their long-term averages, respectively.
Gadwall were 29% below the 2002 estimate
(P=0.095), but remained above the long-term mean
(+49%, P=0.022). July pond indices were similar to
2002 counts, but were 30% below the long-term
average (P<0.001). July brood indices were 21%
higher than last year and 36% below the long-term
average. The late-nesting index was 60% below
that of 2002, and 31% below the long-term
average.
Montana and Western Dakotas: In Montana (strata
41-42) and the western Dakotas (strata 43-44), May
wetland conditions were generally fair to good, with
the exception of the western portion of the survey
area, which was in poor condition. In Montana,
spring rains broke an extended drought in the region,
which greened up pastures, but this precipitation
failed to improve pond conditions in some areas
because it soaked into the dry ground. However, the
combination of late April/early May rainfall and
extensive sheet water created optimum pintail
nesting habitat, especially along the High Line.
Residual nesting cover in Montana was sub-optimal
due to grazing of Conservation Reserve
Program land last year. Average to above
average production was predicted in western
South Dakota, and average to below average
production was predicted in western North
Dakota. Overall, May pond counts were up 38%
from 2002 (P<0.001), and were similar to the long-term
average. Total ducks were up 30% relative to
2002 (P=0.003) and were at their long-term
average. Blue-winged teal (+68%, P=0.027) and
northern shovelers (+81%, P=0.025) were the only
species that increased relative to 2002; all other
estimates were similar to last year's counts. Blue-winged
teal (+62%, P=0.013), northern shovelers
(+69%, P=0.018), green-winged teal (+134%,
19
P<0.001), and redheads (+146%, P=0.054) were
above their long-term averages, while pintails
(-56%, P<0.001) and American wigeon (-61%,
P<0.001) remained below them. Canvasbacks,
scaup, gadwall and mallards did not differ from
their long-term averages.
Brood rearing conditions were good along the
Canadian border, in western South Dakota and
southeastern Montana, poor in southwestern
North Dakota and the westernmost portions of the
Montana survey area, and fair throughout the
remainder of these four strata. July pond indices
were similar to the 2002 estimate and the long-term
average. July brood indices were 125%
higher than last year and 14% above the long-term
average. The late-nesting index was 35%
higher than last year's and 22% below the long-term
average.
Eastern Dakotas: Most of the glacial drift plain of
the eastern Dakotas (strata 45-49) was classed as
poor to fair, with the exception of much of stratum
46, where good conditions prevailed. Ephemeral
wetlands were absent and larger wetlands,
including dugouts and stock ponds, were all in
various stages of recession. Light precipitation
and warm temperatures in April encouraged
vegetation development earlier than last year. As
a result, upland grasses, particularly in the
Missouri slope region of stratum 49, were in good
shape. However, over-water nesting sites were
scarce to non-existent and vegetation margins in
many wetland basins were degraded. Conditions
in the Leola Hills and the Prairie Coteau fared
better and were rated “good.” Both South and
North Dakota received heavy rains in early May.
This rain came too late to help nesting birds in
South Dakota, but helped later nesting birds in
North Dakota. Habitat conditions in eastern North
Dakota were highly variable. As in South Dakota,
winter provided little precipitation to recharge
wetlands. Warm temperatures and small amounts
of precipitation arrived in April and triggered
vegetation development earlier than last year.
During the same period, the northern third of the
state had relatively better nesting conditions and
they were generally better in North Dakota than in
South Dakota. May ponds were 27% above last
year's figure (P=0.002), and 19% above the long-term
average (P=0.003). Estimates of total ducks
(-21%), mallards (-18%), and gadwall (-21%) were
down relative to 2002 figures (P<0.090), but
remained above long-term averages (P<0.001).
Blue-winged teal counts were unchanged relative
to 2002, but remained 30% above the long-term
mean (P=0.018). Northern pintails (-51%, -73%
LTA) and redheads (-45%, -32% LTA) were below
2002 estimates (P<0.006) and their long-term
averages (P<0.001). American wigeon and scaup
estimates did not differ from last year's, but they
remained 71% and 82% above their long-term
averages, respectively. Northern shoveler (-28%,
P=0.051) numbers were down relative to 2002,
but they did not differ from their long-term
average. Green-winged teal and canvasbacks did
not differ significantly from their 2002 estimates or
long-term averages. As of July, overall wetland
conditions remained stable or improved slightly,
and conditions in North Dakota remained better
than those in South Dakota. Southeastern South
Dakota wetlands were in poor to fair condition,
while fair to good brood-rearing conditions
prevailed through the rest of the survey area. July
pond indices were up 23% compared to 2002
(P=0.010) and were 22% above the long-term
average (P=0.064). July brood indices were 11%
lower than last year but 46% above the long-term
average. The late-nesting index was 131% higher
than in 2002, but 57% below the long-term
average.
Northern Saskatchewan, Northern Manitoba, and
Western Ontario: In northern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba (strata 21-25), a much more normal
spring break-up occurred across the region after
the exceptionally late break-up of 2002. A wide
range of habitat conditions prevailed across
northern Saskatchewan in 2003. Dry basins
persisted in the southwest portion of the survey
area, but conditions improved to the north.
Between Cree Lake and Lake Athabasca,
conditions were very wet, with flooding along the
Otherside River. However, in most areas, habitat
conditions were ideal. Most of the smaller riverine
habitat was stabilized by beavers, and ideal ponds
abounded throughout many drainages. In
Manitoba by contrast, water levels tended to be
lower. Much lower than average winter and spring
precipitation reduced flows in small streams to the
point that many beaver ponds there are dry or
recessional. The larger river and lake systems
are also well below normal levels. The low water
in major rivers and lakes should not adversely
impact waterfowl nesting; however, the critical
conditions that persisted along the small streams
and beaver ponds in Manitoba probably limited
the production capacity of these typically ideal
habitats. Conditions in western Ontario (stratum
50) were rated uniformly good.
Overall, the total duck estimate for the region
was 21% below last year's (P<0.003) and was
20
right at the long-term average. Northern shovelers
(-74%, -77% LTA), blue-winged teal (-41%, -33%
LTA) and canvasbacks (-65%, -77% LTA) all
decreased compared to 2002 (P<0.071), and were
below their long-term averages (P<0.001). No
other species' estimates differed from last year's,
but northern pintails, American wigeon and scaup
remained 87% (P<0.001), 26% (P=0.077) and
41% (P<0.001) below long-term averages, and
green-winged teal were 63% above it (P=0.010).
Spring and summer precipitation was above
average in northern Saskatchewan and below
average in northern Manitoba. As of July, in
northern Saskatchewan, beaver ponds and
streams were in ideal shape for production and
the overall outlook was good. However, in
northern Manitoba water levels on many lakes and
rivers remained low. At the time of this report,
July Production Survey information from biologists
in this area was unavailable.
Northern Alberta, Northeastern British Columbia, and
Northwest Territories: Conditions ranged from fair to
good in northern Alberta, northeastern British
Columbia, and the Northwest Territories (strata 13-
18, 20, 75-77). Northern Alberta received below-normal
winter precipitation and was rated fair.
Conditions improved to the west, especially from
Peace River, AB to Ft. Nelson, BC, and this area was
rated good. Early-nesting species may have been
set back by a spring cold snap there. Spring was
also late in the Athabasca Delta (stratum 20), but
shallow lakes and sloughs were open, so conditions
were good. Conditions were fair to poor in the
west and central Peace Parklands of stratum 76,
and fair to poor in the northern Aspen Parklands
of stratum 75. Despite the above normal
precipitation in April (82% to 246% of normal),
conditions declined relative to last year in this
region. Conditions were generally good in the
Northwest Territories, except along the MacKenzie
River, where a late spring lowered production
projections to only fair. Mallard (-28%, P=0.027) and
gadwall (-53%, P=0.007) numbers were lower than
last year's, but all other species estimates were
similar to those of 2002. Total ducks (-11%
P=0.017), mallards (-23%, P=0.004), northern
pintails (-57% P<0.001), and scaup (-36%
P<0.001) were all below long-term averages.
Northern shovelers (+51%, P=0.005),
canvasbacks (+63%, P=0.098) and gadwall
(+73%, P=0.009) were higher than their long-term
averages for the area. As of July, habitat
conditions were rated as good throughout strata
20 and 77. The change from fair to good between
May and July was the result of above normal
precipitation during the first two weeks of July.
However, brood numbers were unexpectedly low
in The Athabasca Delta.
Alaska and Old Crow Flats, Yukon Territory: In
Alaska and Old Crow Flats and Yukon Territory
(strata 1-12), breeding conditions depend largely
on the timing of spring phenology, because
wetland conditions are less variable than on the
prairies. In general, this region experienced an
early spring breakup, with the exception of the
North Slope. There was very little flooding along
major rivers. This combination generally favors
waterfowl production, so the majority of the survey
area was rated good. However, cool wet weather
in north-central Alaska predicted only fair
production there. The total duck estimate was
15% higher than last year's (P=0.006), and was
66% above the long-term average (P<0.001).
Most species counts were similar to 2002
estimates and long-term averages with the
exception of mallards (+26%, +155% LTA) and
green-winged teal (+64%, +217% LTA), which
exceeded last year's estimates (P<0.036) and
long-term averages (P<0.001). American wigeon
(+110%), and northern shoveler (+177%)
remained well above their long-term averages
(P<0.001) but did not differ from 2002 estimates.
Eastern Survey Area: Breeding waterfowl habitat
conditions in the eastern survey area (strata 51-56
and 62-69) were highly variable, ranging from fair to
excellent. In the southern and western part of this
survey area, water and nesting cover were
plentiful and temperatures were mild this spring.
Habitat quality decreased to the north, especially
in northern and western Quebec, where many
shallow marshes and bogs were either completely
dry or reduced to mudflats. Beaver pond habitat
was also noticeably less common than normal.
To the east in Maine and most of the Atlantic
provinces, conditions were excellent, with
adequate water, vegetation, and warm spring
temperatures. However, in Newfoundland and
Labrador, duck numbers were down, which
biologists attributed to poor production the
previous year, coupled with a late spring that
discouraged ducks from settling. This had the
effect of limiting production in that region, even
though temperatures warmed rapidly once spring
thaw commenced, and conditions were good
thereafter. Total duck (-17%, P=0.065) and
merganser (-30%, P=0.035) estimates decreased
relative to last year (Table 6), but were similar to
their long-term averages. Estimates for other
21
species did not differ significantly from 2002
counts or from long-term averages.
Other areas: Breeding habitat conditions in British
Columbia were below average this year and
worse than in the previous 5 years, which reflects
a 4-year drought in central BC. Approximately
8,200 ducks were observed in British Columbia’s
annual survey, statistically similar to 2002 counts and
the long-term average. In Washington, even though
ponds within the pothole survey areas increased by
31% last year, it will likely take at least 2 more wet
years to recover from the 3-year drought there. The
Washington 2003 total duck breeding pair index was
127,800, down 4% from 133,000 the previous year
and 21% from the long-term average. Mallards went
from 44,700 in 2002 to 39,800 in 2003, an 11% drop,
and 20% below the long-term average. In California,
spring weather was substantially wetter than normal
after a winter of below-normal precipitation.
Generally, northeastern portions of the state did not
benefit as much as the remainder. Duck nesting
effort was delayed in some areas, but good to
excellent production was anticipated throughout
much of the state. The total duck estimate was
533,700, 36% higher than last year's (P=0.030), but
similar to the long-term average. Mallards (337,100)
were not significantly different from their 2002
estimate, or the long-term average. In Nebraska,
wetland conditions were generally fair and there
were substantially fewer ducks in the Sandhills
than in 2002. The estimated breeding duck
population in the Nebraska Sandhills for 2003 was
96,700 ducks, 32% below the 2002 estimate and
52% below the 1999-2002 average. This was the
lowest count since new operational procedures
were implemented in 1999. Nevada suffered its
third year of drought; all wetlands were below normal
and many were less than 10% full; thus, poor duck
production was expected. Total ducks numbered
10,600, compared to 5,800 in 2002. Mallards were
also up from 2002 counts. Water levels and habitat
conditions improved considerably in Wyoming, but
the southwest portion of the state was still very dry
and most moisture arrived too late to benefit early
nesters. However, conditions for late nesters and
broods in eastern and northern Wyoming were better
than the past few years. In the Lake states conditions
were generally average. In Minnesota, pond numbers
were similar to the 2002 estimate, and were right at
the 1968-2002 average. Mallard numbers were
unchanged compared to 2002. At 193,300, blue-winged
teal were 55% below 2002, and 15% below
the long-term average. Total ducks numbered
748,900, down 39% from 2002. Wisconsin total duck
numbers and mallard numbers were down from 2002
levels by 26% and 24%, respectively, but remained
above long-term means. In Michigan, total ducks
were down 41% from last year. Mallard numbers did
not differ from last year’s count, but remained 35%
below the long-term average (P=0.031). In the Mid-
Atlantic states, habitat conditions during the spring of
2003 were much improved over those of the past 2
years. Normal to above average precipitation
through the winter and spring brought most wetland
water levels across surveyed areas to normal.
However, the very cool, wet spring delayed
vegetation and nesting phenology by about 5-10
days, which may have affected waterfowl production.
In some areas duck broods were fewer and younger
than normal. Canada geese seemed less affected
by the cool spring. Brood-rearing and renesting
conditions were very good. Total duck and mallard
numbers from the Atlantic Flyway’s plot survey were
similar to the 2002 estimates (P>0.166) and to their
long-term averages (P>0.241).
Mallard Fall-flight Index
The mid-continent mallard population is comprised
of mallards from the traditional survey area,
Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin and is 8.8
million (Fig. 4). This is similar to that of 2002 (8.6
million). The 2003 mid-continent mallard fall-flight
index is 10.3 million, statistically similar to the 2002
estimate of 9.1 million birds. These indices were
based on revised mid-continent mallard population
models, and therefore, differ from those previously
published (USFWS Adaptive Harvest Management
Report 2003, Runge et al. 2002).
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Millions
Fig. 4. Estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the size
of the mallard population in the fall.
22
REFERENCES
Drought Watch on the Prairies, 2003. Agriculture
and Agri-Food Canada.
(www.agr.ca/pfra/drought.htm).
Environment Canada, 2003. Climate Trends and
Variations Bulletin. Green Lane Internet
Publication, Downsview, ON.
(www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/).
NOAA/USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility.
2003. Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.
Washington, D.C.
(www.usds.gov/oce/waob/jawf).
Runge, M. C., F. A. Johnson, J. A. Dubovsky, W.
L. Kendall, J. Lawrence, J. Gammonley.
2002. A revised protocol for the Adaptive
Harvest Management of Mid-Continent
Mallards.
(migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/ahm02/MCMrevi
se2002.pdf)
Sauer, J.R., and S. Droege. 1990. Wood duck
population trends from the North American
Breeding Bird Survey. Pages 159-165 in L.H.
Frederickson, G. V. Burger, S.P. Havera, D.A.
Graber, R.E. Kirby, and T.S. Taylor, eds.
Proceedings of the 1988 North American Wood
Duck Symposium, St. Louis, MO.
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2003. Adaptive
Harvest Management: 2003 Duck Hunting
Season. U.S. Dept. Interior, Washington, D.C.
30pp. (migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/ahm03/-
2003-AHM-report.pdf)
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2003. Waterfowl
Population Survey Section area reports.
(migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.html.)
Wilkins, K. A., and M. C. Otto. 2003. Trends in duck
breeding populations, 1955-2003. U.S. Dept.
Interior, Washington, D.C. 19pp.
(migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.html)
This section summarizes information regarding the
status, annual production of young, and expected fall
flights of goose and tundra swan populations in
North America. Information was compiled from a
broad geographic area and is provided to assist
managers in regulating harvest. We have used the
most widely accepted nomenclature for various
waterfowl populations, but they may differ from other
published information. Some of the goose
populations described herein are comprised of more
than one subspecies and some light goose
populations contain lesser snow geese and Ross’s
geese.
Most populations of geese and swans in North
America nest in the Arctic or subarctic regions of
Alaska and Canada (Fig. 1), but several Canada
goose populations nest in temperate regions of the
U.S. and southern Canada (“temperate-nesting”
populations). Populations are monitored by various
methods on breeding, migration, or wintering areas.
The annual production of young by northern-nesting
geese is influenced greatly by weather conditions on
the breeding grounds, especially the timing of spring
snowmelt and its impact on the initiation of nesting
activity (i.e., phenology). Persistent snow cover
reduces nest site availability, delays nesting activity,
and often results in depressed reproductive effort
and productivity. In general, goose productivity will
be better than average if nesting begins by late May
in western and central portions of the Arctic, and by
early June in the eastern Arctic. Production usually
is poor if nesting is delayed much beyond 15 June.
For temperate-nesting Canada goose populations,
recruitment rates are less variable, but productivity is
influenced by localized drought and flood events.
METHODS
Population estimates for geese are derived from a
variety of surveys conducted by biologists from
federal, state, and provincial agencies, and
universities (Appendices B, J, and K). Surveys
include the Midwinter Survey (MWS, conducted
each January in wintering areas), the Breeding
Population and Habitat Survey (BPHS, see Duck
section of this report), surveys specifically designed
for various populations, and others. When survey
methodology allowed, 95% confidence intervals
were presented with population estimates. The 10-
year trends of population estimates were calculated
through regression of the natural logarithm of survey
results on year, and slope coefficients were
presented and tested for equality to zero (t-test).
Changes in population indices between the current
and previous years were calculated, and where
possible assessed with a z-test using the sum of
sampling variances for the 2 estimates. Primary
population indices, those related to population
objectives, are described first in population-specific
sections.
Due to the completion of this report prior to final
field assessment of goose and swan reproduction,
the annual productivity of most goose populations
can only be predicted qualitatively. Information on
habitat conditions and forecasts of productivity were
based primarily on information from various
waterfowl surveys and interviews with field
biologists. These reports provide reliable information
for specific locations but may not provide accurate
assessment for the vast geographic range of
waterfowl populations.
STATUS OF GEESE AND SWANS
Abstract: We provide information on the population status and productivity of North American Canada geese
(Branta canadensis), brant (B. bernicla), snow geese (Chen caerulescens), Ross’s geese (C. rossii), emperor
geese (C. canagicus), white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) and tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus). The
timing of snowmelt and goose nesting activities in most areas of the Arctic and subarctic was near average in
2003. Only Alaska’s North Slope, Banks and adjacent Arctic Islands, and Akimiski Island reported substantially
delayed nesting phenology this year. Although Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta experienced an early spring
snowmelt, poor production of young by brant, cackling Canada geese, and emperor geese was observed,
likely due to low wetland levels and high fox predation. Conditions in 2003 were especially favorable for
greater snow geese. Of the 25 populations for which current primary population indices were available, 8
populations (Atlantic Population, Aleutian, Dusky, and 3 temperate-nesting populations of Canada geese;
Pacific Population White-fronted Geese; and Eastern Population Tundra Swans) displayed significant positive
trends, and only Short Grass Prairie Population Canada geese displayed a significant negative trend over the
most recent 10-year period. Forecasts for production of geese and swans in North America in 2003 varied
regionally, but generally will be similar to, or higher than in 2002.
Fig. 1. Important goose nesting areas in arctic and subarctic North America.
La Perouse Bay
Cape Henrietta
Maria
Greenland
Banks
Island
Bylot
Island
Southampton
Island
Ungava
Peninsula
James
Bay
Akimiski
Island
McConnell
River
Queen
Maud
Gulf
Copper
River
Yukon River
Kuskokwim River
Yukon-Kuskokwim
(Y-K) Delta
Baffin Island
Foxe
Basin
Labrador
Plain of
Koukdjuak
Wrangel
Island
Anderson
River
Mackenzie
River Delta
Victoria I
C. Churchill
North Slope
Hudson Bay
24
25
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Conditions in the Arctic and Subarctic
Biologists reported that spring phenology was
average or earlier than average throughout most of
North America. Alaska’s North Slope, Banks and
other nearby islands in the high Arctic, and Akimiski
Island were among the few regions that reported a
delayed snowmelt. Remaining areas of Alaska,
Wrangel Island, northern Quebec, Bylot Island, and
Newfoundland reported early snowmelt that allowed
nesting to begin earlier than average. However, low
water levels and predation in some areas depressed
production despite early phenology. The snow and
ice cover graphic (Fig. 2, provided by the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) indicates a
more-advanced spring breakup in most of the Arctic
and subarctic than in 2002, with the exception of
Alaska’s North Slope.
Conditions in Southern Canada and the United
States
Conditions that influence the productivity of
Canada geese that nest in these regions vary less
from year to year than in the Arctic and subarctic.
Given adequate wetland numbers and the
absence of flood events, temperate-nesting
Canada geese are reliably productive. Wetland
conditions in some western states and
midwestern regions remain depressed from
drought, and a few southern midwest areas
experienced some flooding. Increased wetland
abundance in the Canadian prairies in 2003 likely
will benefit geese. Most temperate-nesting
Canada goose populations, with the exception of
the Pacific and Rocky Mountain Populations,
likely experienced average or above average
production in 2003.
Status of Canada Geese
North Atlantic Population (NAP): NAP Canada
geese principally nest in Newfoundland and
Labrador. They generally commingle during winter
with other Atlantic Flyway Canada geese, although
NAP have a more coastal distribution than other
populations (Fig. 3).
During the 2003 BPHS, biologists estimated
60,800 (+ 28,400) indicated pairs (singles plus pairs)
in NAP range (strata 66 and 67), essentially
unchanged from 2002 (62,000, Fig. 4). Indicated
pair estimates have declined an average of 5% per
year since surveys were initiated in 1996 (P=0.22).
A total of 133,300 (+ 63,700) Canada geese were
Fig. 2. The extent of snow and ice cover in North America for 2 June, 2002 and June 2, 2003. The figures
were produced from reports prepared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Fig. 4. Estimated number of North Atlantic Population Canada
geese indicated pairs (and 95% confidence intervals) during
spring.
Year
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03
Thousands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2002 2003
Tall Grass
Prairie
North
Atlantic
Southern
James Bay
Lesser and
Taverner’s
Mississippi Atlantic
Valley
Short Grass
Prairie
Pacific
Dusky
Cackling
Hi-line
Western Prairie
Eastern
Prairie
Atlantic
Flyway
Resident
Aleutian
Rocky
Mountain Great
Plains
Mississippi
Flyway
Giant
Fig. 3. Approximate ranges of Canada goose populations in North America.
26
27
estimated during the BPHS, 31% lower than last
year (P=0.33). Total goose estimates also have
declined an average of 5% per year during 1996-
2003 (P=0.18). The lower number of geese
observed in groups (i.e., nonbreeders) in 2003 likely
reflects last year’s poor gosling production. Record
high temperatures in May contributed to an early
spring breakup and early nesting phenology. The
early breakup should result in increased production
and a fall flight larger than produced during last
year’s harsh nesting conditions.
Atlantic Population (AP): AP Canada geese nest
throughout much of Quebec, especially along
Ungava Bay, the eastern shore of Hudson Bay, and
on the Ungava Peninsula. The AP winters from New
England to South Carolina, but the largest
concentrations occur on the Delmarva Peninsula
(Fig. 3).
Spring AP surveys estimated 156,900 (+ 24,100)
indicated breeding pairs in 2003, 5% lower than last
year (P=0.68, Fig. 5). This population has increased
from a low of 29,000 breeding pairs in 1995. The
breeding pair estimates have increased an average
of 19% per year during 1994-2003 (P<0.001). The
estimated total spring population of 760,300 (+
174,500) geese in 2003 was 22% lower than last
year (P=0.23). A warm period in late April
contributed to early snowmelt and early nesting
phenology, although subsequent cold temperatures
delayed the thawing of larger lakes. During surveys,
a high proportion of geese were observed as single
geese (55% of indicated pairs), indicative of a strong
nesting effort. Although temperatures during the
incubation period were below normal, ground
studies indicated high nest density, large clutch
sizes, and moderate nest success. A fall flight
somewhat larger than last year is expected.
Atlantic Flyway Resident Population (AFRP): This
population of large Canada geese inhabits southern
Quebec, the southern Maritime provinces, and all
states of the Atlantic Flyway (Fig. 3).
Spring surveys in 2003 estimated there were
1,083,200 (+ 180,100) Canada geese in this
population (Fig. 6), about 12% higher than the
previous year’s count (P=0.35). These estimates
have increased an average of 4% per year since
1994 (P<0.01). Nesting conditions in most states
were reported as average. A large fall flight, similar
to last year’s is expected.
Southern James Bay Population (SJBP): This
population nests on Akimiski Island and in the
Hudson Bay Lowlands to the west and south of
James Bay. The SJBP winters from southern Ontario
and Michigan to Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and
South Carolina (Fig. 3).
Breeding ground surveys indicated a spring
population of 106,500 (+ 26,600) Canada geese in
2003, 40% higher than last year (P=0.03, Fig. 7).
These estimates have decreased an average of
<1% per year since 1994 (P=0.67). In 2003, there
were 45,100 (+ 10,100) breeding pairs, which is 55%
higher than last year (P=0.03). Molt migrants likely
were not a factor in this year’s survey. Conditions in
April and May suggested a late spring throughout
SJBP range but rapid snowmelt improved conditions
on the mainland. Nesting was delayed substantially
on Akimiski Island but only slightly on the mainland.
Akimiski Island production will be below average but
Fig. 6. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of At -
lantic Flyway Resident Population Canada geese during spring.
Fig. 5. Estimated number of breeding pairs (and 95% confidence
intervals) of Atlantic Population Canada geese in northern Que-bec.
Year
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Year
'88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03
Thousands
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
28
better than in 2002. A fall flight larger than that of
2002 is expected.
Mississippi Valley Population (MVP): The principal
nesting range of this population is in northern
Ontario, especially in the Hudson Bay Lowlands,
west of Hudson and James Bays. MVP Canada
geese primarily concentrate during fall and winter in
Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan (Fig. 3).
Breeding ground surveys conducted in 2003
indicated a total population of 477,000 (+ 119,500)
Canada geese, a 12% decrease from last spring
(P=0.49, Fig. 8). These estimates have declined an
average of 4% per year since 1994 (P=0.23).
Biologists estimated there were 180,000 (+ 40,100)
nests in 2003, 25% more than in 2002 (P=0.13).
Estimates of MVP nests have declined an average
of 2% per year during 1994-2003 (P=0.26). Molt
migrants likely were not a factor in this year’s survey.
Conditions in April and May suggested a late spring
throughout MVP range, but snowmelt progressed
rapidly and nesting phenology was near average.
Ground studies in the coastal area indicated average
to slightly above average production, better than in
2002. A fall flight larger than last year’s is predicted.
Mississippi Flyway Giant Population (MFGP):
Giant Canada geese have been reestablished or
introduced in all Mississippi Flyway states. This
large subspecies now represents a significant
portion of all Canada geese in the Mississippi
Flyway (Fig. 3).
This population has been monitored with spring
surveys since 1993. In 2003, the preliminary
population estimate was 1,635,000, slightly larger
than the final 2002 estimate of 1,612,300 (Fig. 9).
These estimates have increased an average of 6%
per year since 1993 (P<0.001). Drought reduced
nesting potential in some states and flooding
increased nest losses in portions of Illinois, Iowa,
Missouri, and Ohio. However, even in affected
states, biologists expected near-average production.
Another large fall flight is expected.
Eastern Prairie Population (EPP): These geese
nest in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of Manitoba and
primarily migrate through, and to Manitoba,
Minnesota, and Missouri (Fig. 3).
The 2003 spring estimate of EPP geese was
229,200 (+ 33,500), 6% larger than the 2002
estimate (P=0.55, Fig. 10, survey data for 2003
have been corrected for a visibility bias encountered
this year). Spring estimates have increased an
Fig. 8. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Mississippi Valley Population Canada geese during spring.
Year
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03
Thousands
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Fig. 9. Estimated number of Mississippi Flyway Giant Population
Canada geese during spring.
Year
'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03
Thousands
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Fig. 7. Estimated total population (and 95% confidence intervals)
of Southern James Bay Population Canada geese during spring.
Year
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03
Thousands
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
29
average of 2% per year over the last 10 years
(P=0.39). The 2003 estimate of singles and pairs
was 122,400 (+ 18,100), 19% lower than last year
(P=0.03). Warm temperatures in May contributed to
early snowmelt and to slightly advanced nesting
chronology in EPP range this year. Water levels in
coastal and interior wetlands appeared below
normal. Nesting studies near Cape Churchill
reported nest densities among the highest since the
late 1980s. More snow goose nests were observed
than any year since 1976. Indices of lemming
abundance were the highest observed in 15 years,
which may have reduced predation on geese.
Production on the Nestor One study area was above
average, and well above the poor production
experienced in 2002. A fall flight similar to, or larger
than last year is expected.
Western Prairie and Great Plains Populations
(WPP/GPP): The WPP is composed of mid-sized
and large Canada geese that nest in eastern
Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. The GPP is
composed of large Canada geese resulting from
restoration efforts in Saskatchewan, North Dakota,
South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and
Texas. Geese from these breeding populations
commingle during migration with other Canada
geese along the Missouri River in the Dakotas and
on reservoirs from southwestern Kansas to Texas
(Fig. 3). These 2 populations are managed jointly
and surveyed during winter.
During the 2003 MWS survey, 561,000 WPP/GPP
geese were counted, 21% fewer than the 2002
estimate (Fig. 11). These indices have increased an
average of 9% per year since 1994 (P<0.001). A
2003 index of the spring population in a portion of
WPP/GPP range from the BPHS was 662,400, 16%
larger than last year (P=0.22). The BPHS estimates
have also increased an average of 9% per year
since 1994 (P<0.001). Wetland abundance in the
Canadian and U.S. prairies has improved markedly
since last year and should contribute to increased
production. A fall flight larger than last year’s is
expected.
Tall Grass Prairie Population (TGPP): These
small Canada geese nest on Baffin (particularly on
the Great Plain of the Koukdjuak), Southampton,
and King William Islands; north of the Maguse and
McConnell Rivers on the Hudson Bay coast; and in
the eastern Queen Maud Gulf region. TGPP
Canada geese winter mainly in Oklahoma, Texas,
and northeastern Mexico (Fig. 3). These geese mix
with other Canada geese on wintering areas, making
it difficult to estimate the size of the population.
During the 2003 MWS in the Central Flyway,
611,800 TGPP geese were tallied, with survey
methodologies similar to 2002 (Fig. 12). The 2003
MWS estimate is 21% higher than last year. Fall
surveys of adult TGPP geese conducted on Baffin
Island increased an average of 5% per year from
1994-2002 (P=0.06). Spring breakup near
Southampton and Baffin Islands was earlier in 2003
than last year and limited information suggested the
nesting phenology was average. Some late snow,
sleet, and flooding were reported from Southampton
Island. Average or slightly early phenology was
reported on mainland areas within TGPP range.
Limited information suggests production of TGPP
geese will be average or higher in 2003.
Fig. 11. Estimated number of Western Prairie Population/Great
Plains Population Canada geese during winter.
Fig. 10. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Eastern Prairie Population Canada geese during spring.
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Year
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
30
Short Grass Prairie Population (SGPP): These
small Canada geese nest on Victoria and Jenny Lind
Islands and on the mainland from the Queen Maud
Gulf west and south to the Mackenzie River and
northern Alberta. These geese winter in
southeastern Colorado, northeastern New Mexico,
and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles (Fig. 3).
During the 2003 MWS, biologists counted
156,700 SGPP Canada geese, 3% fewer than in
2002 (Fig. 13). These indices have declined 17% per
year since 1994 (P<0.001). A portion of the SGPP
breeding range in the Northwest Territories is
covered by the BPHS (strata 13-18). The 2003
BPHS estimated 85,000 (+ 37,900) SGPP geese, a
39% decrease from 2002 (P=0.18). These
estimates have declined at an average of 1% per
year since 1994 (P=0.80). General wetland
conditions in the surveyed boreal forest portion of
SGPP range were reported as good. Spring
phenology near Queen Maud Gulf was slightly
earlier than average, and weather during incubation
was mild. Nesting effort and the production outlook
were reported as average to better than average.
With only limited information, production from SGPP
geese is expected to be better than average.
Hi-Line Population (HLP): These large Canada
geese nest in southeastern Alberta, southwestern
Saskatchewan, eastern Montana and Wyoming, and
in Colorado. They winter in Colorado and in central
New Mexico (Fig. 3).
The 2003 MWS indicated a total of 205,900 HLP
Canada geese, which is 5% below last year’s
estimate (Fig. 14). The MWS estimates have
increased an average of 4% per year since 1994
(P=0.13). An estimate of the spring population was
obtained from the 2003 BPHS in areas of
Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Montana. The BPHS
estimate was 231,500, virtually identical to the 2002
estimate (231,000). These population estimates
have also increased 5% per year since 1994
(P=0.01). Wetland conditions in the Canadian and
U.S. prairies were much improved compared to
2002, but generally remained poor in Wyoming and
Colorado. The fall flight of HLP geese is expected to
be larger than last year.
Rocky Mountain Population (RMP): These large
Canada geese nest in southern Alberta and western
Montana, and the inter-mountain regions of Utah,
Idaho, Nevada, Wyoming, and Colorado. They
winter mainly in central and southern California,
Fig. 13. Estimated number of Short Grass Prairie Population Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, and Montana (Fig. 3).
Canada geese during winter.
Fig. 14. Estimated number of Hi-Line Population Canada geese
during winter.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Fig. 12. Estimated number of Tall Grass Prairie Population
Canada geese in the Central Flyway during winter.
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
*
* Changes in survey coverage or methodology - not comparable with previous surveys
*
31
The estimated spring population derived from the
BPHS in 2003 was 134,300, unchanged from last
year’s estimate (134,700). The BPHS estimates
have increased 4% per year during the last 10 years
(P=0.08). During the 2003 MWS, 124,700 geese
were counted, an 11% increase from the previous
year (Fig. 15). MWS estimates have increased an
average of 1% per year since 1994 (P=0.24).
Wetland conditions improved in Alberta since 2002,
but remain in poor condition in Wyoming, Colorado,
Utah, and Nevada. The fall flight of RMP geese is
expected to be somewhat larger than last year.
Pacific Population (PP): These large Canada
geese nest and winter west of the Rocky Mountains
from northern Alberta and British Columbia south
through the Pacific Northwest to California (Fig. 3).
BPHS indices of PP geese in Alberta (strata 76-
77) were 77,100 in 2003, 8% lower than in 2002
(P=0.80). These estimates have increased an
average of 12% per year since 1994 (P=0.01).
Pooled indices of breeding geese in Washington,
California, and Nevada in 2003 declined 4% from
last year. Wetland abundance in the range of the PP
continues to be reduced by drought. Estimates of
production or fall flight can not be reliably predicted
without more information.
Dusky Canada Geese: These mid-sized Canada
geese predominantly nest on the Copper River Delta
of southeastern Alaska. Dusky Canada geese
principally winter in the Willamette and Lower
Columbia River Valleys of Oregon and Washington
(Fig. 3).
The size of the population is estimated through
observations of marked geese during December and
January. The 2002-03 population estimate was
16,700 (+ 3,600), 3% lower than in 2001-02 (P=0.89,
Fig. 16). These estimates have increased an
average 7% per year during the last 10-year period
(P=0.03). Preliminary results from the 2003 spring
survey of the Copper River Delta indicated the index
of total dusky Canada geese decreased 18%, and
singles and pairs decreased 28% from last year’s
levels. A light overwinter snowpack contributed to a
spring breakup about 7 days earlier than average on
the Copper River Delta. Habitat conditions were
favorable for geese, but high predation of dusky
Canada geese by bald eagles and bears likely will
result in lower than average nest success. A fall
flight lower than last year is expected.
Cackling Canada Geese: Cackling Canada geese
nest on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) of
western Alaska. They primarily winter in the
Willamette and Lower Columbia River Valleys of
Oregon and Washington (Fig. 3).
The index used for this population was a fall
estimate from 1979-98. Since 1999, the index has
been an estimate of the fall population derived from
spring surveys on the YKD. The 2003 fall estimate
is 176,000, 29% higher than that of 2002. These
estimates have increased an average of 1% per
year since 1994 (P=0.58, Fig. 17). Surveys in the
coastal zone of the YKD during spring 2003
indicated total cackling geese increased 38%, and
single and paired geese declined 3% from 2002.
Little snowpack and mild spring temperatures
contributed to a peak hatch for geese 7 days earlier
than the long-term average (nest plot surveys).
Fig. 16. Estimated number of dusky Canada geese during
winter.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
5
10
15
20
25
30
Fig. 15. Estimated number of Rocky Mountain Population Canada
geese during winter.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
32
However, reduced cackler nesting effort, nest
success, and clutch size resulted in the lowest index
of production in 13 years. Low water levels and high
fox predation likely contributed to the poor
reproductive performance. A fall flight similar to
last year is expected.
Lesser and Taverner’s Canada Geese: These
subspecies nest throughout much of interior and
south-central Alaska and winter in Washington,
Oregon, and California (Fig. 3). Taverner’s geese
are more associated with the North Slope and
tundra areas, while lesser Canada geese tend to
nest in Alaska’s interior. However, these subspecies
mix with other Canada geese throughout the year
and reliable estimates of separate populations are
not presently available.
Spring breakup was delayed approximately 1
week on the North Slope which may reduce
production of Taverner’s geese. Throughout the
remainder of Alaska, phenology was average or
early and spring flooding was limited. Production
from these areas is expected to be above average.
The estimated number of Canada geese within
BPHS strata predominantly occupied by these
geese (strata 1-6, 8, 10-12) in 2003 increased 20%
from 2002 levels. These estimates have declined an
average of 2% per year since 1994 (P=0.18).
Aleutian Canada Geese (ACG): These geese
currently nest primarily on the Aleutian Islands
although historically they nested from near Kodiak
Island, Alaska to the Kuril Islands in Asia. They now
winter along the Pacific Coast to central California
(Fig. 3). The Aleutian Canada goose was listed as
endangered in 1967 (the population numbered
approximately 800 birds in 1974) and was delisted in
2001.
An indirect population estimate based on
observations of neck-banded birds in California
during 2002-03 was 62,400 (+ 11,600), 69% higher
than last year’s estimate (P<0.001, Fig. 18). These
indirect estimates have increased an average of
11% per year over the last 10 years (P<0.001).
Spring phenology was favorable for Aleutian geese
and gosling production is expected to be high.
Status of Light Geese
The term light geese refers to both snow geese
and Ross’s geese (including both white and blue
color phases), and the lesser (C. c. caerulescens)
and greater (C. c. atlantica) snow goose
subspecies. Another collective term, Mid-continent
Light Geese, includes lesser snow and
Ross’s geese of 2 populations, the Mid-continent
Population and the Western Central Flyway
Population.
Ross’s Geese: Most Ross's geese nest in the
Queen Maud Gulf region, but increasing numbers
nest along the western coast of Hudson Bay and
Southampton, Baffin, and Banks Islands. Ross's
geese are present in the range of 3 different
populations of light geese and primarily winter in
California, New Mexico, Texas, and Mexico, with
increasing numbers in Louisiana and Arkansas (Fig.
19).
Periodic photo-inventories and annual surveys in
the Queen Maud Gulf indicate the spring Ross’s
goose population has increased rapidly and has
Fig. 18. Number of Aleutian Canada geese estimated from
winter estimates and mark -resight methods.
Year
'74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Fig. 17. Number of cackling Canada geese estimated from fall
and spring surveys.
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Ross's
Geese
Greater Snow
Geese
Atlantic Brant
Pacific Brant
Fig. 19. Approximate ranges of brant and snow, Ross's, and white-fronted goose populations in North America.
Mid-continent
Population
Pacific
Population
Populations of Greater
White-fronted Geese
Mid-continent
Western Arctic Population
Population
Western Central Flyway
Population
Populations of
Light Geese
Wrangel Island
Population
Populations of
Brant
Populations of
Light Geese
33
34
exceeded 800,000 geese in recent years. Annual
estimates of total wintering population size are not
available, but surveys on wintering areas of light
geese indicate increases in range, number, and
proportions of Ross's geese. The largest Ross’s
goose colony is near Karrak Lake in the Queen
Maud Gulf. Researchers estimated that 382,000
adult Ross’s geese nested there in 2002 (Fig. 20).
These preliminary estimates have increased an
average of 9% per year from 1993-2002 (P<0.01).
Despite heavy overwinter snowfall at Queen Maud
Gulf in 2002-03, a rapid snowmelt allowed geese to
initiate nesting earlier than average, in a patchwork
of open ground and snow. Hundreds of light geese
at several colonies there were suspected to have
died from avian cholera. Weather conditions during
the incubation period were mild and production from
Queen Maud Gulf is expected to be average or
better. Ross’s geese nesting near the McConnell
River exhibited high production, and spring
phenology in other areas of recent range expansion
was favorable for nesting. The size of the fall flight
cannot be predicted without an annual index to the
size of the total breeding population.
Mid-continent Population (MCP): This population,
including lesser snow geese and increasing
numbers of Ross’s geese, nests along the west
coast of Hudson Bay and on Southampton and
Baffin Islands (Fig. 19). These geese winter
primarily in eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
During the 2003 MWS, biologists counted
2,435,000 light geese, 10% fewer than last year (Fig.
21). Due to declines in these indices since 1997, the
indicated growth rate was less than 1% during 1994-
2003 (P=0.98). Spring breakup and nesting
phenology was near average or earlier than average
in all MCP nesting areas reporting. MCP gosling
production likely will be improved compared to last
year, suggesting the fall flight will be similar or larger
than in 2002.
Western Central Flyway Population (WCFP): This
population is comprised primarily of snow geese but
includes a substantial proportion of Ross's geese.
WCF geese nest in the central and western
Canadian Arctic, with large nesting colonies near
the Queen Maud Gulf and on Banks Island. These
geese stage in fall in eastern Alberta and western
Saskatchewan and spend the winter in southeastern
Colorado, New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, and
the northern highlands of Mexico (Fig. 19).
WCFP geese wintering in the U.S. portion of their
range are surveyed annually, but the entire range,
including Mexico, is surveyed only once every 3
years. In the U.S. portion of the survey, 105,900
geese were counted in January 2003, 6% more than
last year (Fig. 22). The indicated growth rate was
less than 1% during 1994-2003 (P=0.86). During
2003 surveys in Mexico, 61,500 additional WCF light
geese were counted, 48% lower than the last survey
in 2000. Winter indices of all WCFP light geese in
the U.S. and Mexico have declined 4% per year
during 1994-2003 (P=0.29). Spring phenology was
average or slightly early near Queen Maud Gulf in
2003 and weather during nesting was mild, which
likely will result in average or better than average
production. Spring phenology on Banks Island was
reported as average to delayed and production
could be below average. Although weather
conditions at small mainland colonies in the western
Fig. 21. Estimated number of Mid-continent Population light
geese (lesser snow and Ross’s geese) during winter.
Fig. 20. Estimated number of nesting adult Ross’s geese at
Karrak Lake Colony, Nunavut.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Year
'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02
Thousands
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
35
Arctic were favorable, high predation was observed
at Kendall Island and production will likely be low.
Overall, production is expected to be near average
for this population.
Western Arctic/Wrangel Island Population
(WAWI): Most of the snow geese in the Pacific
Flyway originate from nesting colonies in the
western and central Arctic (WA: Banks Island, the
Anderson and Mackenzie River Deltas, Jenny Lind
Island, the western Queen Maud Gulf region) or
Wrangel Island (WI), located off the northern coast of
Russia. The WA segment of the population winters
in central and southern California, New Mexico, and
Mexico; the WI segment winters in the Puget Sound
area of Washington and in northern and central
California (Fig. 19). In winter, WA and WI segments
commingle with light geese from other populations
in California, complicating winter surveys.
The fall 2002 estimate of WAWI snow geese was
596,900, 33% higher than estimated in 2001 (Fig.
23). Fall estimates have increased 2% per year
during 1993-2002 (P=0.54). Spring phenology on
Banks Island was reported as average to delayed
and gosling production there could be below
average. Although weather conditions at small
mainland colonies in the western Arctic were
favorable, high predation was observed at Kendall
Island and production will likely be low. At Wrangel
Island’s Tundra River colony, nesting phenology was
very early. Preliminary estimates from biologists on
Wrangel Island indicate 25,000-30,000 nests were
found and nest success was between 75 and 80%,
similar to the favorable production year of 2002.
They reported that the production outlook for 2003
was very good. A fall flight similar to last year’s is
expected.
Greater snow geese (GSG): This subspecies
nests principally on Bylot, Axel Heiberg, Ellesmere,
and Baffin Islands, and on Greenland. They winter
along the Atlantic coast from New Jersey to North
Carolina (Fig. 19).
The preliminary estimate from the spring 2003
photographic survey of greater snow geese in the St.
Lawrence Valley was 631,500 (+ 48,600), 1% lower
than the last year’s final estimate (Fig. 24). Spring
estimates of greater snow geese have increased an
average of 2% per year since 1994 (P=0.25). The
number of snow geese counted during the 2003
MWS in the Atlantic Flyway was 402,300, a 7%
increase from the previous survey. Midwinter counts
have increased an average of 5% per year during
1994-2003 (P=0.06). The largest known greater
snow goose colony is on Bylot Island. There, spring
breakup occurred very early and peak nest initiation
was the third earliest in 15 years. Nest densities in
the colony were high, predation rates were low to
moderate, and the resultant brood density was high.
Fig. 23. Estimated number of Western Arctic/Wrangel Island
Population light geese during fall.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Fig. 24. Estimated number of greater snow geese during spring.
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Fig. 22. Estimated number of Western Central Flyway
Population light geese during winter in the United States.
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
36
Biologists expected above average production, the
highest of the last 4 years. A fall flight larger than
last year is expected.
Status of Greater White-fronted Geese
Pacific Population (PP): These geese primarily
nest on the Yukon Delta of Alaska and winter in the
Central Valley of California (Fig. 19).
The index for this population was a fall estimate
from 1979-98. Since 1999, the index has been a fall
population estimate derived from spring surveys on
the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) and Bristol Bay.
The 2003 fall estimate is 422,200, 18% higher than
in 2002 (Fig. 25). These estimates have increased
an average of 3% per year since 1994 (P=0.02).
Light overwinter snowpack and mild spring
temperatures on the YKD led to a spring breakup
about 7 days earlier than average. Spring aerial
surveys in the YKD coastal zone indicated increases
in total white-fronts (+31%) and breeding pairs (+2%)
from 2002 levels. Spring estimates of total white-fronted
geese on the entire YKD and Bristol Bay
have increased an average of 5% per year from
1994-2003 (P=0.02). Although clutch sizes and
indices of nest success were slightly lower than in
2002, production will be near average and a fall flight
larger than last year’s is expected.
Mid-continent Population (MCP): These white-fronted
geese nest across a broad region from
central and northwestern Alaska to the central Arctic
and the Foxe Basin. They concentrate in southern
Saskatchewan during the fall and winter in Texas,
Louisiana, and Mexico (Fig. 19).
During the fall 2002 survey in Saskatchewan and
Alberta, biologists counted 626,700 MCP geese, a
decrease of 12% from the 2001 count (Fig. 25).
During 1993-2002, the growth rate of MCP white-fronts
was less than 1% (P=0.97). Spring phenology
was near average in most of MCP white-front range,
but late on Alaska’s North Slope and slightly early in
Alaska’s interior region. A strong nesting effort and
good productivity were reported near the Mackenzie
and Anderson River Deltas. Near average
phenology and mild temperatures during incubation
in the Queen Maud Gulf, and limited flooding in
interior Alaska should lead to above average
production in 2003.
Status of Brant
Atlantic Brant (ATLB): Most of this population
nests on islands of the eastern Arctic. These brant
winter along the Atlantic Coast from Massachusetts
to North Carolina (Fig. 19).
The 2003 MWS estimate of brant in the Atlantic
Flyway was 164,500, 9% fewer than last year’s
estimate (Fig. 26). These estimates have
increased an average of 3% per year for the most
recent 10-year period (P=0.14). Spring breakup in
2003 was near average in the eastern Arctic and
production should be improved compared to 2002.
Pacific Brant (PACB): These brant nest across
Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) and North
Slope, Banks Island, other islands of the western
and central Arctic, the Queen Maud Gulf, and
Wrangel Island. They winter as far south as Baja
California and the west coast of Mexico (Fig. 19).
The 2003 MWS in the Pacific Flyway and Mexico
resulted in a count of 106,500 brant, 22% fewer
than the previous year’s count (Fig. 26). These
Fig. 25. Estimated number of Mid-continent and Pacific
Population greater white-fronted geese during fall.
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Mid-continent Population
Pacific Population
Fig. 26. Estimated number of Atlantic and Pacific Population brant
during winter.
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
Atlantic brant
Pacific brant
37
estimates have decreased an average of 1% per
year during 1994-2003 (P=0.23). Spring breakup
was about 1 week early on the YKD, later than
average on the North Slope, and delayed on Banks
and other nearby Islands. Brant nesting effort was
very low throughout the YKD, and the rate of nest
destruction by foxes was high. Production for much
of this population is expected to be reduced and a
fall flight smaller than last year’s is expected.
Western High Arctic Brant (WHA): This recently
recognized population of brant nests on the Parry
Islands of the Northwest Territories. The
population stages in fall at Izembek Lagoon,
Alaska. They predominantly winter in Padilla,
Samish, and Fidalgo Bays of Washington and
near Boundary Bay, British Columbia, although
some individuals have been observed as far south
as Mexico. The development of a management
plan and monitoring program are underway for
this newly designated population.
During 2003, the major nesting area for this
population was subjected to a late spring breakup,
which may reduce production.
Status of Emperor Geese
The breeding range of emperor geese is restricted
to coastal areas of the Bering Sea, with the largest
concentration on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD)
in Alaska. Emperor geese migrate relatively short
distances and primarily winter in the Aleutian Islands
(Fig. 27). Since 1981, emperor geese have been
surveyed annually on spring staging areas in
southwestern Alaska.
The spring 2003 emperor survey estimate was
71,200 geese, 21% higher than last year (Fig. 28).
These estimates have increased an average of 2%
per year since 1994 (P=0.38). Spring indices of
breeding pairs from the YKD coastal survey
decreased 24%, and the total bird index increased
6% from 2002 levels. Light snowpack and mild
spring temperatures contributed to a peak goose
hatch 7 days earlier than the long-term average
(nest plot studies). However, emperor goose
nesting effort and nest success appeared low. Low
water levels and high fox predation likely contributed
to the poor reproductive performance. A fall flight
smaller than last year’s is expected.
Status of Tundra Swans
Western Population: These swans nest along the
coastal lowlands of western Alaska, particularly
between the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers. They
winter primarily in California, Utah, and the Pacific
Northwest (Fig. 27).
The 2003 MWS estimate of 102,700 swans was
75% higher than the 2002 estimate (Fig. 29). These
estimates have been increasing at an average rate
of 1% per year since 1994 (P=0.71). Spring
breakup in western Alaska was approximately 1
week earlier than average. The number of active
swan nests observed during aerial surveys declined
18% from last year’s record high, but was the third
highest index since 1985. Despite the relatively
poor nesting effort and success of other waterfowl
on the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta in 2003, tundra
swan nesting effort, clutch sizes, and nest success
appeared very high. A fall flight similar to last year’s
is expected.
Eastern
Tundra
Swans
Western
Tundra
Swans
Emperor
Geese
Fig. 27. Approximate range of emperor geese, and eastern and
western tundra swan populations in North America.
Fig. 28. Estimated numbers of emperor geese present during
May surveys.
Year
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
38
Eastern Population: Eastern Population tundra
swans nest from the Seward Peninsula of Alaska to
the northeast shore of Hudson Bay and Baffin
Island. These birds winter in coastal areas from
Maryland to North Carolina (Fig. 27)
During the 2003 MWS, 108,200 eastern tundra
swans were observed, 4% more than last year (Fig.
29). During the last 10 years, these estimates have
increased an average of 3% per year (P<0.01). On
Alaska’s North Slope, spring phenology was
delayed by about 1 week and numbers of tundra
swans and their nests were fewer than in recent
years. Near the Mackenzie River delta, a good
swan nesting effort was reported and average to
better than average production was expected. In
most other parts of Eastern Population tundra swan
range, spring phenology was near average. Overall,
a fall flight similar to last year’s is expected.
Fig. 29. Estimated numbers of Eastern and Western Population
tundra swans during winter.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
Thousands
30
50
70
90
110
130
Eastern Population
Western Population
39
Appendix A. Individuals who supplied information on the status of ducks.
______________________________________________________________________________________
Alaska, Yukon Territory, and Old Crow Flats (Strata 1-12): B. Conant and D. Groves
Northern Alberta, Northeastern British Columbia, and Northwest Territories (Strata 13-18, 20, and 77):
C. Ferguson and A. Straughn
Northern Saskatchewan and Northern Manitoba (Strata 21-24): F. Roetker and P. Stinson
Southern and Central Alberta (Strata 26-29, 75, and 76):
Air E. Buelna, R. Bentley, and D. Roach
Ground P. Pryor a, K. Froggatt b, S. Barry a, E. Hofman b, C. Procter a, M. Barr c, R. Engler c, N. Fontaine c,
R. Hunka c, T. Lang a, K. Lumbis c, D. Matheson c, T. Mathews c, M. Nieman a, B. Peers c, R. Russell b,
K. Zimmer a
Southern Saskatchewan (Strata 30-35):
Air P. Thorpe, T. Lewis, R. King, K. Bollinger, and B. Fisher
Ground D. Nieman a, J. Smith a, K. Warner a, T. Barney a, J. Clark c, C. Downie a, P. Nieman a, C. Park a,
A. Williams a, D. Caswell a, J. Leafloor a, P. Rakowski a, M. Schuster a, J. Galbraith a, C. Lindgren c,
C. Meuckon a, D. Pisiak a
Southern Manitoba (Strata 25 and 36-40):
Air R. King K. Bollinger, and B. Fisher
Ground D. Caswell a, J. Leafloor a, P. Rakowski a, M. Schuster a, F. Baldwin a, G. Ball b, J. Caswell a,
J. Galbraith a, C. Lindgren c, C. Meuckon a, D. Pisiak a
Montana and Western Dakotas (Strata 41-44):
Air J. Voelzer R. Bentley, and J. Wortham
Ground P. Garrettson, K. Richkus, and L. Ridenour
Eastern Dakotas (Strata 45-49):
Air J. Solberg and S. Thomas
Ground G. Allen, K. Kruse, T. Menard, and T. Thorn
Central Quebec (Strata 68 and 69):
Air J. Wortham and D. Fronczak
Helicopter D. Holtby b and S. Boomer
New York, Eastern Ontario, and Southern Quebec (Strata 52-56): M. Koneff and C. Kitchens-Hayes
Central and Western Ontario (Strata 50 and 51): W. Butler and K. Bollinger
Maine and Maritimes (Strata 62-67):
Air J. Bidwell and M. Drut
Helicopter H. MacRae d and B. Raftovich
British Columbia: A. Breault b, P. Watts d, and participants from the Canadian Wildlife Service, Ducks Unlimited Canada,
British Columbia Wildlife Branch, Canadian Parks Service, private organizations
California
Air D. Yparraguirre b and M. Weaver b
Ground D. Loughman d, J. Laughlin d, and S. Olbenberger d
Colorado: J. Gammonley b
Michigan: S. Chadwick b, B. Dybas-Berger b, E. Flegler b, S. Hannab, L. Jablon d, E. Kafcas b, A. Karr b,
B. Lercel b, R. Matthews d, J. Niewoonder b, T. Oliver b, J. Robison b, B. Scullonb, G. Souillereb,
K. Sitar b, V. Weigold b
Minnesota
Air A. Buchert b and J. Lawrence b
Ground S. Kelly, J. Artmann, L. Au, K. Bousquest, W. Brininger, J. Holler, D. Johnson, J. Kelley, R. Papasso,
T. Rondeau, S. Swanson, G. Tischer, L. Wolff, S. Zodrow
Nebraska
Air D. Benning d, N. Lyman b, and M. Vrtiska b
Ground C. Juricek b and R. Walters b
Data Analysis M. Vrtiska b and C. Juricek b
40
Appendix A. Continued.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Nevada N. Saake b, B. Tanner b, and D. Johnson b
Northeastern U.S.
Data Analysis B. Raftovich
Connecticut M. Huang b and K. Kubik b
Delaware T. Whittendale b
Maryland D. Brinker b, T. Decker b, T. DeWitt b, B. Evans b, C. Harris b, B. Harvey b, D. Heilmeier b, W. Henry b,
R. Hill b, L. Hindman b, B. Joyce b, B. Martin b, B. Perry b, D. Price b, G. Timko b, D. Webster b
Massachusetts Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife personnel
New Hampshire E. Robinson b, K. Bontaites b, K. Bordeau b, M. Fay b, W. Ingham b, J. Kelley b, E. Orff b, J. Robinson b,
W. Staats b, K. Tuttle b, A.Timmins b, T. Walski b, S. Wheeler b,
New Jersey T. Nichols b, A. Burnett b, P. Castelli b, J. Garris b, B. Kirkpatrick b, J. Mangino b, L. Widjeskog b,
D. Wilkinson b, B. Willard, J. Ziemba b, L. Ziemba, N. Zimpfer b
New York Staff and volunteers of the NY State Department of Environmental Conservation
Pennsylvania M. Casalena b, J. Dunn b, J. Gilbert b, I. Gregg b, T. Hardisty b, K. Jacobs b, A. Keister b, M. Lovallo b,
B. Palmer b, C. Rosenbery b, M. Ternent b, C. Thoma b
Rhode Island C. Allin b, C. Brown b, L. Gibson b, T. Silvia d, B. Tefft b
Vermont T. Appleton, J. Austin b, D. Blodgett b, J. Buck b, P. Hamelin b, F. Hammond b, J. Mlcuch b, K. Royar b,
D. Sausville b
Virginia G. Costanzo b, T. Bidrowski b, and other staff of the Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries
Washington R. Friesz b, D. Base b, J. Bernatowicz b, H. Ferguson b, S. Fitkin b, P. Fowler b, T. Hames b, J. Heinlen
b, T. Jafari b, M. Livingston b, T. McCall b, B. Patterson b, J. Tabor b, D. Volsen b
Wisconsin
Air L. Waskow b, B. Bacon b, C. Cold b, C. Milestone b, P.Samerdyke b
Ground T. Bahti b, K. Belling b, N. Christel b, J. Cole b, T. Connolly, T. Cook d, P. David b, G. Dunsmoor b,
J. Harbaugh b, B. Hill b, J. Huff b, R. Krueger, S. Krueger d, M. Lehner b, R. McDonough b, K. Morgan b,
A. Nelson b, L. Nieman, D. North b, J. Robaidek b, A. Robidoux b, J. Ruwaldt, J. Trick, D. Trudeau,
G. VanVreede, M. Windsor b
Data Analysis R. Gatti b
We also wish to acknowledge the following individuals and groups:
The states of the Atlantic and Mississippi Flyway and Regions 3, 4, and 5 of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for
collecting mid-winter waterfowl survey data, from which we extract black duck counts, and J. Serie, K. Gamble, and B.
Raftovich, for summarizing the counts; and the volunteers of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (a survey
coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Resources Division [USGS/BRD]) for data used in estimation of
wood duck population trends, and J. Sauer, USGS/BRD for conducting the wood duck trend analyses.
a Canadian Wildlife Service
b State, Provincial, or Tribal Conservation Agency
c Ducks Unlimited - Canada
d Other organization
All others – U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
41
Appendix B. Individuals that supplied information on the status of geese and swans.
Flyway-wide and Regional Survey Reports: D. Caswella, K. Dicksona, M. Drut, D. Fronczak, K. Gamble, K. Kruse,
R. Oates, R. Raftovich, J. Serie, D. Sharp, and R. Trost
Information from the Breeding Population and Habitat Survey: see Appendix A
North Atlantic Population of Canada Geese: J. Bidwell, M. Batemana, and M. Otto
Atlantic Population of Canada Geese: P. Brosseaua, R. Cottera, J. Dunnb, W. Harveya, L. Hindmanb, and J.
Rodriguea
Atlantic Flyway Resident Population of Canada Geese: C. Allinb, P. Castellib, G. Chaskob, P. Corrb, G. Costanzob,
J. Dunnb, L. Garlandb, H. Heusmannb, L. Hindmanb, K. Jacobsb, W. Lesserb, P. Merolab, R. Raftovich, E. Robinsonb,
T. Whittendaleb, and S. Wilsonb
Southern James Bay Population of Canada Geese: K. Abrahamb, J. Hughesa, K. Rossa, and L. Waltonb
Mississippi Valley Population of Canada Geese: K. Abrahamb, J. Bergquistb, J. Hughesa, K. Rossa, and L.
Waltonb
Mississippi Flyway Population Giant Canada Geese: K. Abrahamb, S. Barryb, J. Bergquistb, K. Chodachekb, E.
Fleglerb, D. Graberb, J. Hughesa, J. Lawrenceb, D. Luukkonenb, R. Marshallab, R. Pritchertb, E. Warrb, and G. Zennerb
Eastern Prairie Population of Canada Geese: D. Andersend, M. Gillespieb, B. Lubinski, S. Maxsonb, A. Raedekeb,
and P. Telanderb
Western Prairie and Great Plains Populations of Canada Geese: M. Johnsonb, M. Kraftb, D. Niemana, M.
O’Meiliab, P. Thorpe, S. Vaab, M. Vritiskab
Tall Grass Prairie Population of Canada Geese: D. Caswella, J. Leafloora, and M. Mallorya
Short Grass Prairie Population of Canada Geese: R. Alisauskasa, C. Ferguson, and J. Hinesa
Hi-Line Population of Canada Geese: J. Dubovsky, J. Gammonleyb, J. Hansenb, D. Niemana, L. Robertsb, and S.
Tessmanb
Rocky Mountain Population of Canada Geese: T. Aldrichb, J. Dubovsky, J. Herbertb, T. Hinzb, C. Mortimoreb, L.
Robertsb, T. Sandersb, and P. Thorpe
Pacific Population of Canada Geese: A. Breaulta, B. Balesb, C. Feldheimb, C. Ferguson, T. Hinzb, D. Kraegeb, C.
Mortimoreb, and D. Yparraguirreb
Dusky Canada Geese: M. Drut, B. Eldridge, T. Fondell, B. Grandd, B. Larned, D. Logand, M. Naughton, D.
Robertson, and T. Rotheb
Lesser and Taverner’s Canada Geese: A. Brackney, B. Conant, E. Mallek, R. Oates, and M. Spindler
Cackling Canada Geese: M. Anthonyd, C. Dau, B. Eldridge, J. Fischer, D. Marks, B. Platte, and B. Stehn
Aleutian Canada Geese: V. Byrd
Greater Snow Geese: D. Bordagea, K. Dicksona, A. Fontainea, G. Gauthierd, J. Girouxd, M. Mallorya, and A. Reeda
Mid-continent Population Light Geese: K. Abrahamb, D. Caswella, M. Gillespieb, B. Lubinski, A. Raedekeb, J.
Leafloora, M. Mallorya, R. Rockwelld, K. Rossa, P. Telanderb, and L. Waltonb
Western Central Flyway Population Light Geese: R. Alisauskasa, J. Hinesa, and P. Thorpe
42
Appendix B. Continued.
Western Arctic/Wrangel Island Population of Lesser Snow Geese: V. Baranukd, S. Boyda, J. Bredy, J. Hinesa,
and D. Kraegeb
Ross’s Geese: R. Alisauskasa, J. Caswelld, J. Leafloora, and P. Thorpe
Pacific Population White-Fronted Geese: C. Dau, B. Eldridge, J. Fischer, D. Groves, D. Marks, B. Platte, and B.
Stehn
Mid-continent Population White-fronted Geese: R. Alisauskasa, B. Conant, C. Elyd, J. Hinesa, B. Larned, E.
Malleck, D. Niemana, M. Spindler, and K. Warnera
Pacific Brant: M. Anthonyd, B. Eldridge, J. Fischer, and R. King
Atlantic Brant: P. Castellib, K. Dicksona, G. Gilchrist, M. Mallorya, and A. Reeda
Western High Arctic Brant: D. Kraegeb
Emperor Geese: C. Dau, B. Eldridge, J. Fischer, R. King, E. Malleck, D. Marks, B. Platte, and B. Stehn
Western Population of Tundra Swans: C. Dau, B. Eldridge, J. Fischer, and B. Stehn
Eastern Population of Tundra Swans: C. Dau, J. Hinesa, and B. Larned
aCanadian Wildlife Service
bState, Provincial, or Tribal Conservation Agency
cDucks Unlimited - Canada
dOther organization
All others - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
4
2
7
1
6
11
10
9
8
12 13
14
15
17
16
18
20
26
27
21
30
22
23
24
3
76 77
75
28
29 33
32
31
35
34
36
40 37
39 38
25
41
42
45
43 46
47
44 48
49
50 51
57
54
52
55
53
68
56 62
63
64
69
65
67
66
5
Appendix C. Transects and strata for areas of the Breeding Waterfowl and Habitat Survey (Traditional and Eastern). 43
44
Appendix D. May pond estimates and standard errors (in thousands) in portions of Prairie Canada and the
north-central U.S.
Prairie Canada a North-central U.S. a
Total
Year N Ù
SE
Ù
N Ù
SE
Ù
N Ù
SE
Ù
1961 1977.2 165.4
1962 2369.1 184.6
1963 2482.0 129.3
1964 3370.7 173.0
1965 4378.8 212.2
1966 4554.5 229.3
1967 4691.2 272.1
1968 1985.7 120.2
1969 3547.6 221.9
1970 4875.0 251.2
1971 4053.4 200.4
1972 4009.2 250.9
1973 2949.5 197.6
1974 6390.1 308.3 1840.8 197.2 8230.9 366.0
1975 5320.1 271.3 1910.8 116.1 7230.9 295.1
1976 4598.8 197.1 1391.5 99.2 5990.3 220.7
1977 2277.9 120.7 771.1 51.1 3049.1 131.1
1978 3622.1 158.0 1590.4 81.7 5212.4 177.9
1979 4858.9 252.0 1522.2 70.9 6381.1 261.8
1980 2140.9 107.7 761.4 35.8 2902.3 113.5
1981 1443.0 75.3 682.8 34.0 2125.8 82.6
1982 3184.9 178.6 1458.0 86.4 4642.8 198.4
1983 3905.7 208.2 1259.2 68.7 5164.9 219.2
1984 2473.1 196.6 1766.2 90.8 4239.3 216.5
1985 4283.1 244.1 1326.9 74.0 5610.0 255.1
1986 4024.7 174.4 1734.8 74.4 5759.5 189.6
1987 2523.7 131.0 1347.8 46.8 3871.5 139.1
1988 2110.1 132.4 790.7 39.4 2900.8 138.1
1989 1692.7 89.1 1289.9 61.7 2982.7 108.4
1990 2817.3 138.3 691.2 45.9 3508.5 145.7
1991 2493.9 110.2 706.1 33.6 3200.0 115.2
1992 2783.9 141.6 825.0 30.8 3608.9 144.9
1993 2261.1 94.0 1350.6 57.1 3611.7 110.0
1994 3769.1 173.9 2215.6 88.8 5984.8 195.3
1995 3892.5 223.8 2442.9 106.8 6335.4 248.0
1996 5002.6 184.9 2479.7 135.3 7482.2 229.1
1997 5061.0 180.3 2397.2 94.4 7458.2 203.5
1998 2521.7 133.8 2065.3 89.2 4586.9 160.8
1999 3862.0 157.2 2842.3 256.8 6704.3 301.1
2000 2422.2 96.1 1524.5 99.9 3946.9 138.6
2001 2747.2 115.6 1893.2 91.5 4640.4 147.4
2002 1439.0 105.0 1281.1 63.4 2720.0 122.7
2003 3522.3 151.8 1667.8 67.4 5707.1 168.7
a No comparable survey data available for the north-central U.S. during 1961-73.
45
Appendix E. Breeding population estimates (in thousands) for total ducksa and mallards for states, provinces,
or regions that conduct spring surveys.
British Columbia b California Colorado Michigan Minnesota Nebraska
Year
Total
Ducks Mallards
Total
Ducks Mallards
Total
Ducks Mallards
Total
Ducks Mallards
Total
Ducks Mallards
Total
Ducks Mallards
1955 c 101.5 32.0
1956 94.9 25.8
1957 154.8 26.8
1958 176.4 28.1
1959 99.7 12.1
1960 51.1 32.4 143.6 21.6
1961 58.7 32.4 141.8 43.3
1962