Waterfowl population status, 2002

              U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Waterfowl
Population Status, 2002
WATERFOWL POPULATION STATUS, 2002
July 24, 2002
In North America the process of establishing hunting regulations for waterfowl is conducted annually. In the
United States the process involves a number of scheduled meetings in which information regarding the status of
waterfowl is presented to individuals within the agencies responsible for setting hunting regulations. In addition,
public hearings are held and the proposed regulations are published in the Federal Register to allow public
comment. This report includes the most current breeding population and production information available for
waterfowl in North America and is a result of cooperative efforts by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the
Canadian Wildlife Service (CWS), various State and Provincial conservation agencies, and private conservation
organizations. This report is intended to aid the development of waterfowl harvest regulations in the U.S. for the
2002-2003 hunting season.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Cover art: Black scoters. Joseph Hautman, winner of the 2002-2003 Federal Duck Stamp design competition.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Waterfowl Population and Habitat Information: The information contained in this report is the result of the efforts
of numerous individuals and organizations. Principal contributors include the Canadian Wildlife Service, U.S.
Fish and Wildlife Service, state wildlife conservation agencies, provincial conservation agencies from Canada,
and Direccion General de Conservacion Ecologica de los Recursos Naturales, Mexico. In addition, several
conservation organizations, other state and federal agencies, universities, and private individuals provided
information or cooperated in survey activities. Some habitat and weather information was taken from the
NOAA/USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility (http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/), Environment Canada
(http://www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/), and Waterfowl Population Surveys reports
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.html). Appendix A provides a list of individuals responsible for the
collection and compilation of data for the Ducks section of this report. Appendix B provides a list of individuals
who were primary contacts for information included in the Geese and Swans section. We apologize for any
omission of individuals from these lists, and thank all participants for their contributions. Without this combined
effort, a comprehensive assessment of waterfowl populations and habitat would not be possible.
Authors: This report was prepared by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Migratory Bird
Management, Branch of Surveys and Assessment. The principal authors are Pamela R. Garrettson, Tim
Moser, and Khristi Wilkins. The authors compiled information from the numerous sources to provide an
assessment of the status of waterfowl populations.
Report Preparation: The preparation of this report involved substantial efforts on the part of many individuals.
Support for the processing of data and publication was provided by Mark C. Otto, James A. Dubovsky, Judith P.
Bladen, and Michael Runge. Graham Smith reviewed drafts of this report and provided helpful comments. Ray
Bentley, John Bidwell, Karen Bollinger, Elizabeth Buelna, Bill Butler, Carl Ferguson, Rod King, Mark Koneff,
Fred Roetker, John Solberg, Phil Thorpe, James Voelzer, and James Wortham provided habitat narratives,
reviewed portions of the report that addressed major breeding areas, and provided helpful comments.
This report should be cited as: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2002. Waterfowl population status, 2002. U.S.
Department of the Interior, Washington, D.C. 51pp.
All Division of Migratory Bird Management reports are available at our home page
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov).
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements........................................................................................................................... 2
Table of Contents.............................................................................................................................. 3
Status of ducks
Methods ............................................................................................................................................ 5
Results and Discussion..................................................................................................................... 6
References........................................................................................................................................ 21
Status of geese and swans
Methods ............................................................................................................................................ 22
Results and Discussion..................................................................................................................... 22
Appendices
Appendix A. Individuals who supplied information on the status of ducks ....................................... 38
Appendix B. Individuals who supplied information on the status of geese and swans .................... 40
Appendix C. Transects and strata for areas of the breeding waterfowl and habitat survey ............. 42
Appendix D. Estimated number of May ponds and standard errors in portions of Prairie Canada
and the northcentral U.S ....................................................................................................... 43
Appendix E. Breeding population estimates for total ducks and mallards for states, provinces,
or regions that conduct spring surveys ................................................................................. 44
Appendix F. Breeding population estimates and standard errors for 10 species of ducks
from the traditional survey area ............................................................................................ 46
Appendix G. Breeding population estimates and standard errors for the 10 most abundant
species of ducks in the eastern survey area, 1999-2002 ..................................................... 48
Appendix H. Estimated number of July ponds and standard errors in portions of Prairie Canada
and the northcentral U.S ....................................................................................................... 49
Appendix I. Canada goose population indices during 1969-2002 .................................................... 50
Appendix J. Population indices for snow geese, greater white-fronted geese, brant, emperor
geese, and tundra swans during 1969-2002 ........................................................................ 51
3
4
List of duck tables
Table 1. Estimated number (in thousands) of May ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and
the northcentral U.S. ............................................................................................................ 8
Table 2. Total duck breeding population estimates .......................................................................... 10
Table 3. Mallard breeding population estimates ............................................................................... 11
Table 4. Estimated number of July ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the northcentral
U.S....................................................................................................................................... 15
Table 5. Duck breeding population estimates for the traditional survey area................................... 16
Table 6. Duck breeding population estimates, for the 10 most abundant species) for the eastern
survey area ........................................................................................................................... 16
List of duck figures
Figure 1. Number of ponds in May and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the
northcentral U.S. .................................................................................................................. 8
Figure 2. Breeding population estimates, 95% confidence intervals, and North American
Waterfowl Management Plan population goal for selected species for the traditional
survey area .......................................................................................................................... 12
Figure 3. Number of ponds in July and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the
northcentral U.S. .................................................................................................................. 15
Figure 4. Estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the size of the mallard population in the
fall......................................................................................................................................... 21
List of goose and swan figures
Figure 1. Important Arctic and subarctic nesting areas of North America ....................................... 23
Figure 2. The extent of snow and ice cover in North American for 3-5 June 2001 and 3 June
2002..................................................................................................................................... 24
Figure 3. Approximate ranges of Canada goose populations in North America .............................. 25
Figures 4-16. Estimated numbers of Canada goose populations .................................................... 26-30
Figure 17. Approximate ranges of selected goose populations in North America ........................... 31
Figures 19-23, 25. Estimated numbers of light goose populations .................................................. 33-35
Figure 24. Approximate range of Emperor goose, and eastern and western swan populations in
North America ....................................................................................................................... 36
Figure 26. Estimated numbers of Eastern and Western Populations of tundra swans during
winter.................................................................................................................................... 36
STATUS OF DUCKS
Abstract: In the traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50, and 75-77), total duck abundance was 31.2
+ 0.5 [SE] million birds. This was 14% below (P< 0.001) last year’s estimate of 36.1 + 0.6 million birds, and 6%
below the long-term (1955-2001) average (P<0.001). Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance was 7.5 + 0.2
million, similar to (P=0.23) the 2001 estimate of 7.9 + 0.2 million, and essentially identical to the long-term
average (P=1.00). Blue-winged teal (A. discors) abundance was 4.2 + 0.2 million, which was 27% below last
year’s estimate of 5.8 + 0.3 million (P<0.001), but similar to the long-term average (P=0.22). Gadwall (A.
strepera; 2.2 ± 0.1 million, -17%), shovelers (A. clypeata; 2.3 ± 0.1 million, -30%), and pintails (A. acuta;
1.8 ± 0.1 million, -46%) were below 2001 estimates (P<0.02). Wigeon (A. americana; 2.3 ± 0.1 million),
green-winged teal (A. crecca; 2.3 ± 0.1 million), redheads (Aythya americana; 0.6 ± 0.1 million),
canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria; 0.5 ± 0.1 million), and scaup (Aythya marila and A. affinis combined; 3.5
± 0.2 million) were unchanged from 2001 estimates. Gadwall (+37%), green-winged teal (+28%), and
shovelers (+10%) all remained above their long-term averages, whereas wigeon (-12%), pintail (-58%),
canvasback (-14%), and scaup numbers (-34%) were below long-term averages. Northern pintails and
scaup were the lowest and second lowest counts on record, respectively. The redhead estimate was
similar to the long-term average. Below-average winter and spring precipitation in the prairies and
parklands were reflected in pond counts much lower than in 2001. Total May ponds (U.S. prairies and
prairie and parkland Canada combined) of 2.7 ± 0.1 million were the second lowest since 1974, when this
estimate was first recorded, 41% below last year’s estimate of 4.6 ± 0.1 million (P<0.001), and 45% below
(P<0.001) the long-term average. The projected mid-continent mallard fall flight index is 8.9 million, statistically
similar to last year's. The eastern survey area is comprised of strata 51-56 and 62-69. The 2002 total duck
population estimate for this area was 4.4 ± 0.3 million birds, 32% higher than last year's (3.3 ± 0.3 million,
P=0.01), and 41% higher than the 1996-2001 average (P<0.001). Numbers of most individual species
were similar to those of last year, with the exception of mergansers (Lophodytes cucullatus and Mergus
spp.; 0.8 ± 0.1 million, +90%, P<0.001) and green-winged teal (0.7 ± 0.1 million, +174%, P=0.01), which
increased compared to last year. Mergansers (+68%) and green-winged teal (+102%) were also above
their 1996-2001 averages, as were scoters (Melanitta spp.; 0.3 ± 0.1 million, +178%, P=0.01). Estimates
for all other species were similar to last year's estimates and to long-term averages.
This section summarizes the most recent
information about the status of North American duck
populations and their habitats in order to facilitate
development of harvest regulations in the U.S. The
annual status of these populations is monitored using
a variety of databases, which include estimates of the
size of breeding populations, production, and harvest.
The data and analyses were the most current
available when this report was written. Future
analyses may yield slightly different results as
databases are updated and new analytical
procedures become available.
METHODS
Breeding Population and Habitat Survey
Federal, provincial, and state agencies conduct
surveys each spring to estimate the size of breeding
populations and to evaluate the condition of the
habitats. These surveys are conducted using fixed-wing
aircraft and encompass principal breeding areas
of North America, and cover over 2.0 million square
miles. The traditional survey area (strata 1-18, 20-50,
and 75-77) is comprised of parts of Alaska, Canada,
and the north-central U.S., and includes
approximately 1.3 million square miles (Appendix C).
The eastern survey area (strata 51-56 and 62-69)
includes parts of Ontario, Quebec, Labrador,
Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island,
New Brunswick, New York and Maine, covering an
area of approximately 0.7 million square miles.
In Prairie Canada and the north-central U.S.,
estimates of ducks and ponds seen from the air are
corrected annually for visibility bias by conducting
ground counts. In the northern portions of the
traditional survey area and the eastern survey area,
duck estimates are corrected using visibility rates
derived from a comparison of airplane and helicopter
counts. Annual estimates of duck abundance are
available since 1955 for the traditional survey area
and for all strata in the eastern survey area since
1996, although portions of the eastern survey area
have been surveyed since 1990. In the traditional
survey area, estimates of pond abundance in Prairie
Canada are available since 1961, whereas estimates
for the north-central U.S. are available only since
1974. Several provinces and states also conduct
breeding waterfowl surveys using various methods;
some have survey designs that allow calculation of
measures of precision for estimates of duck
abundance. Information about habitat conditions was
5
supplied primarily by biologists in the survey areas.
However, much ancillary weather information was
obtained from agricultural and weather internet sites
(see references). In 2002, May survey data was
unavailable for stratum 36, so we predicted 2002
population estimates using past stratum 36 (1971-
2001) estimates, and past and current estimates for
strata 31 and 37, and ground pond counts (1971-
2002) in a time series regression model.
Production and Habitat Survey
In July, aerial observers assess summer habitat
conditions and duck production in a portion of the
traditional survey area (strata 20-49 and 75-77). This
survey provides indices of duck brood and pond
numbers. Ground counts are not conducted
concurrently with July aerial surveys, so indices of
duck broods and ponds are not corrected for visibility
bias. The coefficients of variation for May pond
estimates are used to estimate the precision of July
pond counts.
Total Duck Species Composition
In the traditional survey area, our estimate of total
ducks excludes scoters (Melanitta spp.), eiders
(Somateria and Polysticta spp.), long-tailed ducks
(Clangula hyemalis). mergansers (Mergus and
Lophodytes spp.), and wood ducks (Aix sponsa),
because the traditional survey area does not cover a
large portion of their breeding range. However,
scoters and mergansers breed throughout a large
portion of the eastern survey area. Therefore, in
2000, we redefined the total duck species
composition in this region to include these species,
and recalculated historical estimates to reflect this
change. Canvasbacks, redheads, and ruddy ducks
(Oxyura jamaicensis) are excluded from the eastern
total-duck estimate because these species rarely
breed there. Due to the added survey areas and
change in total duck composition, estimates for the
eastern survey area published in this document are
not comparable to those published in status reports
prior to 2000. Wood ducks are also not included in
the total duck estimate for the eastern survey area,
even though this species breeds over much of the
region, as their wooded habitats make them difficult
to detect from the air.
Mallard Fall-flight Index
Mallard fall-flight indices predict the size of the fall
population originating from the mid-continent region
of North America. For management purposes, the
mid-continent population is comprised of mallards
originating from the traditional survey area, as well as
Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Indices are
based on the mallard models used for Adaptive
Harvest Management, and consider breeding
population size, habitat conditions, adult summer
survival, and projected fall age ratio (young/adult).
The projected fall age ratio is predicted from a model
that depicts how the age ratio varies with changes in
spring population size and pond abundance. The
fall-flight index represents a weighted average of the
fall flights predicted by the four alternative models of
mallard population dynamics used in adaptive
harvest management (U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service
2002), using current model probabilities as weights.
Fall flight indices provided in this report may differ
from those published previously because model
weights change each year based on a comparison of
model predictions and observed population size.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
2001 in Review
Spring weather was generally warmer than
normal across Canada, and temperatures were at
or slightly below normal in most of the northern
U.S. However, precipitation and habitat conditions
in the traditional survey area were variable. The
estimate of May ponds (north-central U. S. and
Prairie Canada combined) had increased 18%
(4.6 ± 0.1 million, P=0.001) compared to 2000, but
was not statistically different from the long-term
average (-6%, P=0.07). May ponds in prairie
Canada were estimated at 2.7 + 0.1 million, 13%
higher than the 2000 estimate (P=0.03), but 20%
below the long-term average (P<0.001). In the
north-central U. S., counts produced an estimate
of 1.9 + 0.09 million ponds, 24% greater than in
2000 (P=0.006), and 25% above the long-term
average (P<0.001). Continued drought made for
fair-to-poor conditions in most of Alberta, central
and southern Saskatchewan, and eastern
Montana. By contrast, North and South Dakota
generally had good-to-excellent water conditions,
with the best conditions in the eastern portions of
these states, and drier conditions to the west.
Southern Manitoba and extreme southeastern
Saskatchewan had higher-than-normal water
conditions for two years, and that residual water,
together with above-normal precipitation due to an
early, snowy winter, produced excellent habitat for
breeding ducks. Average to above-average
precipitation also made for excellent wetland
conditions across most of northern Manitoba and
Saskatchewan. Record drought and poor wetland
conditions were the rule in Alberta, with the
exception of the northernmost areas, which had
above-average winter and spring precipitation.
Good conditions for breeding ducks prevailed in
the Northwest Territories, except for a small
northern area that was rated only fair due to late
6
breakup of ice on wetlands that reduced available
breeding habitat for early-nesting species. In
Alaska, breeding conditions depend largely on the
timing of spring, as wetland conditions are less
variable than on the prairies. Although winter
temperatures had been mild, spring was late, and
waterfowl production was below average to the
north and west, and average to the south and
east. Overall, conditions were good in the
traditional survey area despite drought in parts of
Prairie Canada. In the eastern survey area,
conditions for breeding ducks were variable but
generally good. Southern Ontario and northern
New York enjoyed an early spring and normal
precipitation. Spring-like weather also came early
in Quebec, with good-to-excellent habitat in the
central and northern portions. However, southern
Quebec was drier, and conditions there ranged
from fair to poor. In Maine and the Maritime
provinces spring-like weather was late, with lower-than-
normal temperatures, but above-average
precipitation, so habitat conditions were rated
good throughout the region. Overall, eastern
habitats were in good condition, with average to
above-average waterfowl production expected.
In 2001, the estimated breeding population of all
ducks (excluding scoters, eiders, long-tailed ducks,
mergansers, and wood ducks) in the traditional
survey area was 36.1 + 0.6 million birds, 14% below
(P=0.001) the 2000 estimate of 41.8 + 0.7 million
birds, but 9% above the long-term (1955-2000)
average (P<0.001). Approximately 60% of these
ducks were found in the prairie-pothole region (strata
26-49), the same percentage recorded during the
1970s, which is the historical benchmark for good
wetland conditions in this region. However, habitat
conditions, and therefore distribution of birds, varied
considerably. Total duck numbers had increased
compared to the 2000 estimate (P=0.020) and were
above the long-term average in Southern Manitoba
(P=0.007). Estimates decreased compared to 2000
and were below long-term averages in central and
northern Alberta-northeastern British Columbia-
Northwest Territories, northern Saskatchewan-northern
Manitoba-western Ontario, southern
Saskatchewan and southern Alberta, (P<0.05). The
2001 total-duck population estimate for the eastern
survey area (excluding canvasbacks, redheads,
ruddy ducks, eiders, long-tailed ducks and wood
ducks) was 3.3 + 0.2 million birds. This was similar
to the 2000 estimate of 3.2 + 0.3 million birds.
The July Production Survey indicated that the
number of late-season ponds in Prairie Canada
and the north-central U.S. combined was 2.9 +
0.09 million. This was 26% lower than the 2000
estimate of 3.9 + 0.1 million ponds (P<0.001), and
similar to the long-term average (P=0.74). July
ponds in Prairie Canada were estimated at 1.8 +
0.07 million, 25% below the 2000 estimate of 2.5 ±
0.1 million (P<0.001) but similar to the long-term
average (P=0.47). In the north-central U.S., there
were 1.0 ± 0.06 million July ponds. This was 26%
below the 2000 estimate of 1.4 + 0.08 million, and
similar to the long-term average (P=0.48). The
number of broods in the north-central U.S. and
Prairie Canada combined was 11% lower than in
2000, but 15% above the long-term average. The
number of broods in Prairie Canada and the north-central
U.S. were 9% above and 19% below 2000
estimates, respectively. Brood indices in Prairie
Canada were 33% below the long-term average,
while brood counts were 81% above the long-term
average in the north-central U.S. The brood index in
the Canadian boreal forest was 10% lower than in
2000, and 31% below the long-term average.
2002 Breeding Habitat Conditions, Populations,
and Production
Overall Habitat and Population Status
Below average winter and spring precipitation
in the prairies and parklands and cold spring
temperatures in the East resulted in generally
poorer habitat conditions for breeding waterfowl
this year than in 2001. Dry conditions were
reflected in the number of ponds counted this
year. Total May ponds (U.S. prairies and
Canadian prairies and parkland combined) were
2.7 ± 0.1 million (Table 1, Figure 1, Appendix B),
which is the second lowest count recorded since
this estimate was first calculated in 1974. This
value was 41% below last year’s estimate of 4.6 ±
0.1 million (P<0.001), and 45% below (P<0.001)
the long-term average (4.9 ± 0.1 million). May
ponds in Canada (1.4 ± 0.1 million) and the U.S.
(1.3 ± 0.1 million) were below 2001 estimates
(-48% in Canada and -32% in the U.S; P<0.001)
and their long-term averages (-58% in Canada
and -16% in the U.S; P<0.001). Canadian May
ponds were the lowest recorded since surveys
began in 1961.
In both the traditional and eastern survey areas,
most regions entered into the spring of 2002 with
a water deficit remaining from winter. Spring rains
helped recharge wetlands in most of the
Northeast, but conditions remained very dry in the
West. Western Montana, southern Saskatchewan,
and much of southern Manitoba and southern and
central Alberta were hardest hit by drought.
Fewer ponds available to nesting birds caused
crowding on remaining ponds. Relative to other
parts of the prairies, the Dakotas were fair.
Permanent wetlands remained in good condition
7
Table 1. Estimated number (in thousands) of May ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the northcentral U.S.
Change from 2001 Change from LTA
Survey Area 2001 2002 % P LTAa % P
Prairie Canada
S. Alberta 426 477 +12 0.288 728 -35 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 1536 635 -59 <0.001 1992 -68 <0.001
S. Manitoba 786 327 -58 <0.001 687 -52 <0.001
Subtotal 2747 1439 -48 <0.001 3408 -58 <0.001
Northcentral U.S.
Montana and Western Dakotas 346 347 0 0.968 529 -34 <0.001
Eastern Dakotas 1548 934 -40 <0.001 1003 -7 0.247
Subtotal 1893 1281 -32 <0.001 1531 -16 <0.001
Grand Total 4640 2720 -41 <0.001 4906 -45 <0.001
aLong-term average. Prairie Canada, 1961-2001; northcentral U.S. and Grand Total, 1974-2001.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Millions
Northcentral U.S.
Prairie Canada
Total
Year
Figure 1. Number of ponds in May and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the Northcentral U.S.
8
following the wet period of 1993-2001. However
survey results suggest that many prairie-nesting
species such as mallards, shovelers, pintails, and
blue-winged teal, flew over the prairies and
parklands to the boreal forest, where wetland
conditions are more stable.
Cold spring temperatures also negatively
affected nesting waterfowl this year. Winter-like
conditions hit the entire surveyed area in early
May, when snowstorms and cold temperatures
caused birds to halt migration for several weeks.
Snow and cold may have caused some nest loss
in the prairies and parklands. Spring ice break-up
was several weeks late over many of the northern
survey areas. Break-up was so late in parts of the
Northeast that biologists predicted little nesting
activity in these areas. Conditions in northern
Canada were generally good, but cold
temperatures likely had a negative impact on early
nesting species such as mallards, green-winged
teal, and pintails. The only region where habitat
conditions for breeding waterfowl improved over
last year was Alaska, due to warmer post-thaw
temperatures than last year. However, rapid ice
melt may have caused flooding of nests in parts of
Alaska as well as Labrador.
Since the breeding surveys were flown, water
conditions have improved in Montana, the western
Dakotas, southern Saskatchewan, and southern
Alberta. In mid-June, these areas received several
inches to a foot or more of rain and/or snow.
However, most biologists think this precipitation
probably came too late to help all but the latest
nesting waterfowl this year.
In the traditional survey area, the total duck
population estimate (excluding scoters, eiders
[Somateria and Polysticta spp.], long-tailed ducks
[Clangula hyemalis], mergansers, and wood ducks
[Aix sponsa]) was 31.2 ± 0.5 [SE] million birds,
14% below (P<0.001) last year’s estimate of 36.1
± 0.6 million birds, and 6% below (P<0.001) the
1955-2001 long-term average (Table 2, Table 5,
Appendix E). Total duck numbers decreased
compared to last year, but remained above long-term
averages in Alaska and the eastern Dakotas
(P<0.001). Counts in southern Alberta were
unchanged from last year, but were 47% below
the long-term average (P<0.001). Total duck
estimates decreased compared to last year and
were below long-term averages in southern
Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba, and in
Montana and the western Dakotas (P<0.04).
Perhaps reflecting overflight of the prairies in favor
of the boreal forest, estimates in northern
Saskatchewan and Manitoba and western Ontario
were up 70% compared to last year (P<0.001),
and were 27% higher than the long-term average
(P<0.001). Counts in central and northern Alberta,
northeast British Columbia and the Northwest
Territories were also higher than last year (+20%,
P=0.003) but slightly below the long-term average
(P=0.020, Table 6, Appendix G). The 2002 total
duck population estimate for the eastern survey
area was 4.4 ± 0.3 million birds. This estimate is
32% higher than last year's (3.3 ± 0.3 million birds,
P=0.010), and 41% higher than the 1996-2001
average (P<0.001). In some other areas where
surveys are conducted, measures of precision for
estimates are provided (British Columbia, California,
Michigan, northeastern U.S., Washington, and
Wisconsin). Total duck abundances were similar to
last year’s estimates and long-term averages in
British Columbia and the northeastern U.S. In
California, the total duck estimate was unchanged
from 2001, and remained below the long-term
average (P<0.001). Michigan's estimate is above
last year's (P=0.019) and similar to its long-term
average. Wisconsin's estimate is higher than last
year's (P<0.01). Of the states without measures of
precision for total duck numbers, Minnesota's
estimate increased from 2001, but estimates for
Nebraska, Nevada and Washington all decreased
compared to last year.
Trends in abundances and annual breeding
population estimates for 10 principal duck species
from the traditional survey area are provided in
Figure 2, Table 5, and Appendix F. The dashed lines
in the species graphs in Figure 2 represent the
population goal of the North American Waterfowl
Management Plan for the traditional survey area.
Mallard abundance was 7.5 + 0.2 million, which is
statistically similar to last year’s estimate of 7.9 + 0.3
million (P=0.23), and right at the long-term average
(P=0.998, Table 3). Mallard numbers dropped
significantly in the eastern Dakotas and in southern
Saskatchewan compared to 2001 (P<0.001).
However, numbers in the eastern Dakotas remained
well above average, while southern Saskatchewan
estimates were below the long-term average. In
Alaska and southern Alberta, mallard numbers did
not change relative to last year, but were higher than
the long-term average in Alaska and in Southern
Alberta, remained well below it (P<0.001). In the
northern Saskatchewan--northern Manitoba--western
Ontario area, mallard numbers were up compared to
2001 (P<0.001), but were similar to the long-term
average. In other regions of the traditional survey
area, mallard numbers remained unchanged relative
to 2001 and to long-term averages. In other areas
where surveys are conducted and measures of
precision for estimates are provided (the same states
as for total ducks, as well as Minnesota), mallard
9
Table 2. Total ducka breeding population estimates (in thousands).
Change from 2001 Change from LTA
Region 2001 2002 % P LTAb 2001 2002
Traditional Survey Area
Alaska - Yukon Territory
- Old Crow Flats
6427 4961 -23 <0.001 3401 +46 <0.001
C. & N. Alberta - N.E. British Columbia
- Northwest Territories
5489 6584 +20 0.003 7259 -9 0.020
N. Saskatchewan - N. Manitoba
- W. Ontario
2656 4502 +70 <0.001 3533 +27 <0.001
S. Alberta 2521 2364 -6 0.489 4419 -47 <0.001
S. Saskatchewan 6442 3547 -45 <0.001 7408 -52 <0.001
S. Manitoba 1793 1304 -27 <0.001 1548 -16 0.001
Montana and Western Dakotas 1588 1334 -16 0.037 1624 -18 0.001
Eastern Dakotas 9261 6585 -29 <0.001 4096 +61 <0.001
Total 36177 31181 -14 <0.001 33287 -6 <0.001
Eastern Survey Area 3337 4399 +32 0.007 3119 +41 <0.001
Other Regions
British Columbia c 7 9 +17 0.639 8 +15 0.631
California 414 392 -5 0.714 6 -37 <0.001
Michigan 540 733 +36 0.019 721 +2 0.826
Northeastern U.S. d 1393 1466 +5 0.557 1403 +5 0.548
Wisconsin 543 913 +68 <0.010 419 +118 e
a Excludes eider, long-tailed duck, wood duck, scoter, and merganser in traditional survey area; excludes eider, long-tailed duck, wood duck, redhead, canvasback and ruddy
duck in eastern survey area; species composition for other regions varies.
b Long-term average. Traditional survey area=1955-2001; eastern survey area=1996-2001; years for other regions vary (see Appendix E).
c Index to waterfowl use in prime waterfowl producing regions of the province.
d Includes all or portions of CT, DE, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT, and VA.
e Not estimable from current survey.
10
Table 3. Mallard breeding population estimates (in thousands).
Change from 2001 Change from LTA
Region 2001 2002 % P LTAb 2001 2002
Traditional Survey Area
Alaska - Yukon Territory
- Old Crow Flats
718 667 -7 0.492 323 +106 <0.001
C. & N. Alberta - N.E. British Columbia
- Northwest Territories
979 1182 +21 0.158 1107 +7 0.546
N. Saskatchewan - N. Manitoba
- W. Ontario
603 1115 +85 <0.001 1163 -4 0.673
S. Alberta 744 793 +7 0.689 1135 -30 0.001
S. Saskatchewan 1650 1213 -26 0.002 2107 -42 <0.001
S. Manitoba 446 401 -10 0.371 373 +7 0.306
Montana and Western Dakotas 463 428 -8 0.573 503 -15 0.085
Eastern Dakotas 2301 1704 -26 <0.001 792 +115 <0.001
Total 7904 7504 -5 0.232 7503 0 0.998
Eastern Survey Area 286 295 +3 0.867 303 -3 0.857
Other Regions
British Columbia b 1 1 -20 0.145 1 -28 <0.001
California 302 265 -12 0.497 390 -32 0.001
Michigan 295 291 -1 0.943 395 -26 0.031
Minnesota 321 367 +14 0.450 213 +72 d
Northeastern U.S. c 808 833 +3 0.735 758 +10 0.202
Wisconsin 164 373 +127 <0.010 166 +125 d
a Long-term average. Traditional survey area=1955-2001; eastern survey area=1996-2001; years for other regions vary (see Appendix E).
b Index to waterfowl use in prime waterfowl producing regions of the province.
c Includes all or portions of CT, DE, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT, and VA.
d Value for test statistic was not available.
11
abundances remained unchanged from 2001, with
the exception of Wisconsin, where mallards were up
127% (P<0.010). Mallard estimates were below long-term
averages in British Columbia, California, and
Michigan (P<0.03). In Nebraska, Nevada and
Washington, estimates of precision are unavailable,
but in all these states, mallard counts were down
compared to last year's.
Blue-winged teal abundance was estimated to
be 4.2 ± 0.2 million birds, 27% below (P<0.001)
last year’s estimate of 5.8 ± 0.3 million, but
unchanged (P=0.22) from the 1955-2001 average.
Gadwall (2.2 ± 0.1 million, -17%), shovelers (2.3 ±
0.1 million, -30%), and pintails (1.8 ± 0.1 million,
-46%) were below 2001 estimates (P<0.02).
Wigeon (2.3 ± 0.1 million), green-winged teal (2.3
± 0.1 million), redheads (0.6 ± 0.1 million),
canvasbacks (0.5 ± 0.1 million), and scaup (3.5 ±
0.2 million) were unchanged from 2001 estimates.
Gadwall (+37%), green-winged teal (+28%), and
shovelers (+10%) all remained above their long-term
averages, whereas wigeon (-12%), pintails
(-58%), canvasbacks (-14%), and scaup (-34%)
numbers were below long-term averages. Pintail
and scaup counts were the lowest and second
lowest on record, respectively. Redhead numbers
were similar to the long-term average (P=0.38).
Estimates for most of the 10 principal species in
the eastern survey area species were similar to
2001 estimates and to long-term averages, with
the exception of mergansers (0.8 + 0.1 million)
and green-winged teal (0.6 + 0.1 million), both of
which were above their 2001 counts and long-term
averages (P<0.02). Scoter numbers (0.3 +
0.1 million) were higher than in 2001, though the
difference was not statistically significant, and this
species was above its long-term average
(P=0.01).
The status of the American black duck (Anas
rubripes) has been monitored primarily by mid-winter
surveys conducted in January in states of the Atlantic
and Mississippi Flyways. The trend in the winter
index for the total population is depicted in Figure 2.
Mid-winter counts suggested that black duck
abundance in both flyways combined increased
relative to 2001 counts but the two flyways showed
opposite trends in abundance. Over both flyways,
294,800 black ducks were estimated from mid-winter
inventories. This is 9% higher than the 2001 index
(270,000), and 4% higher than the 1993-2001 mean
(284,000). In the Atlantic Flyway, the mid-winter
index was up 11% from 229,700 in 2001 to 255,400
in 2002, and was 14% higher than the 1993-2001
mean (224,700). In the Mississippi Flyway, the mid-winter
estimate decreased 15% from 46,400 in 2001
to 39,400 in 2002, which is 34% below the most
recent 10-year mean (59,300). In the eastern survey
area, the 2002 estimate for breeding black ducks
(602,800) was up 43%, but was statistically similar to
the 2001 estimate (422,000) and the 1996-2001
average (474,000).
Trends in wood duck populations are monitored by
the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), a
series of roadside routes surveyed during May and
June each year. Wood ducks are encountered with
low frequency along BBS routes, limiting the amount
and quality of available information for analysis
(Sauer and Droege 1990). However, the BBS
provides the only long-term indices of this species'
regional populations. Trend analysis suggests that
wood duck numbers increased 4% per year over the
long-term (1966-2001) and 2.5% over the short-term
(1981-2001). Specifically, in the Atlantic Flyway, the
BBS indicates a 4.8% annual increase in wood ducks
over the long-term and a 4.2% annual increase over
the short-term (P<0.001). In the Mississippi Flyway,
the BBS indicates a 3.5% annual increase over the
long-term (P<0.001), but no significant trend over the
short-term (J. Sauer, U. S. Geological Survey/
Biological Resources Division, unpubl. data).
Weather and habitat conditions during the
summer months can influence waterfowl
production. Good wetland conditions increase
renesting and brood survival. During late May and
early June, many parts of the prairies, including
Montana, the western Dakotas, and southern
Saskatchewan and Alberta received substantial
precipitation. Though this late rain and snow may
have encouraged good reproductive effort by late-nesting
species such as gadwall, many of the
earlier nesting ducks likely bypassed the prairies
altogether. For those ducks that did nest, this late
water should improve brood-rearing conditions, as
brood and duckling survival tends to increase with
higher wetland densities. Results of the July
Production Survey indicate that the number of
ponds in Prairie Canada and the north-central
U.S. combined was 1.8 + 0.1 million ponds (Fig. 3,
Table 4, Appendix H). This was 36% below last
year’s estimate of 2.9 + 0.1 million ponds
(P<0.001), and 33% below the long-term average
(P<0.001). July ponds in Prairie Canada were at
1.0 + 0.1 million. This was 46% below last year’s
estimate of 1.8 ± 0.07 million (P<0.001) and 43%
below the long-term average (P<0.001). July
ponds in the north-central U.S. were estimated at
0.84 + 0.04 million. This was 19% below last
year’s estimate of 1.0 + 0.06 million (P=0.007), but
similar to the long-term average. The number of
broods in the north-central U.S. and Prairie
Canada combined was 352,600, 35% lower than
last year’s estimate, and 25% below the long-term
14
Table 4. Estimated number (in thousands) of July ponds in portions of Prairie Canada and the northcentral U.S.
Change from 2001 Change from LTA
Survey Area 2001 2002 % P LTAa % P
Prairie Canada
S. Alberta 311 319 +3 0.836 461 -31 0.001
S. Saskatchewan 941 396 -58 <0.001 950 -58 <0.001
S. Manitoba 587 282 -52 <0.001 345 -18 0.325
Subtotal 1838 997 -46 <0.001 1756 -43 <0.001
Northcentral U.S.
Montana and Western Dakotas 226 304 +34 0.025 375 -19 0.046
Eastern Dakotas 805 536 -33 <0.001 542 -1 0.924
Subtotal 1032 840 -19 0.007 917 -8 0.299
Grand Total 2870 1836 -36 <0.001 2745 -33 <0.001
aLong-term average. Prairie Canada, 1961-2000; northcentral U.S. and Grand Total, 1974-2001
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Millions
Northcentral U.S.
Prairie Canada
Total
Year
Figure 3. Number of ponds in July and 95% confidence intervals for Prairie Canada and the Northcentral U.S.
15
Table 5. Duck breeding population estimates (in thousands) for the traditional survey area.
Change from 2001 Change from LTA
Species 2001 2002 % P LTA a % P
Mallard 7904 7504 -5 0.232 7503 0 0.998
Gadwall 2679 2235 -17 0.021 1633 +37 <0.001
American wigeon 2494 2334 -6 0.434 2646 -12 0.027
Green-winged teal 2509 2333 -7 0.410 1821 +28 <0.001
Blue-winged teal 5757 4206 -27 <0.001 4493 -6 0.218
Northern shoveler 3314 2318 -30 <0.001 2100 +10 0.087
Northern pintail 3296 1790 -46 <0.001 4268 -58 <0.001
Redhead 712 565 -21 0.135 626 -10 0.378
Canvasback 580 487 -16 0.174 563 -14 0.088
Scaup (greater and lesser combined) 3694 3524 -5 0.572 5318 -34 <0.001
Total b 36177 31181 -14 <0.001 33287 -6 <0.001
a Long-term average (1955-2001).
b Includes black duck, ring-necked duck, goldeneneyes, bufflehead, and ruddy duck. Excludes scoter, eider, long-tailed duck, merganser, and wood duck.
Table 6. Duck breeding population estimates (in thousands, for the 10 most abundant species) for the eastern survey
area.
Change from 2001 Change from LTA
Species 2001 2002 % P LTA
a % P
Mergansers 429 815 +90 0.001 485 +68 0.003
Mallard 286 295 +3 0.867 303 -3 0.857
American Black Duck 422 603 +43 0.068 474 +27 0.153
American Wigeon 77 87 +12 0.772 64 +36 0.402
Green-winged teal 220 604 +174 0.004 299 +102 0.020
Lesser Scaup 204 136 -33 0.517 68 +99 0.185
Ring-necked duck 353 416 +18 0.367 503 -17 0.205
Goldeneye (common & Barrow’s) 1032 955 -7 0.791 708 +35 0.268
Bufflehead 95 84 -12 0.701 55 +51 0.201
Scoters 179 314 +76 0.136 113 +178 0.010
Total b 3337 4399 +32 0.007 3119 +41 <0.001
a Long-term average from 1996.
b Includes gadwall, northern shoveler, northern pintail, and scaup. Excludes eider, long-tailed duck, wood duck, redhead, canvasback, and ruddy duck.
16
average. The number of broods in Prairie Canada
and the North-central U.S. were 54% and 37%
below last year’s estimates, respectively. Brood
indices in Prairie Canada were 69% below the
long-term average, while brood counts were 12%
above the long-term average in the north-central
U.S. The brood index in the Canadian boreal
forest was 21% higher than last year’s, but 16%
below the long-term average. The late-nesting
index, the number of pairs and lone drakes
without broods seen during July surveys, was 9%
higher than last year but 43% lower than the long-term
average, for all areas combined. The late-nesting
index was down 12% and 33% relative to
last year in boreal Canada and the north-central
U.S., respectively, but up 32% in Prairie Canada,
perhaps reflecting late rains there. However, the
late nesting index was below the long-term
average by more than 60% in boreal Canada and
the north-central U.S., and by 24% in prairie
Canada.
Regional Habitat and Population Status
A description of habitat conditions, populations,
and production for each for the major breeding areas
follows. More detailed reports of specific regions in
the eastern survey area, as well as more detailed
information on regions in the traditional survey area,
are available in Waterfowl Population Surveys
reports, located on the Division of Migratory Bird
Management’s home page. Some of the habitat
information that follows was taken from these reports.
http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.html.
Southern Alberta: This fall, winter, and spring,
southern Alberta (strata 26-29) received below-average
precipitation in most areas. April 2002
was the 3rd coldest in 120 years. Southern and
Central Alberta saw well below normal (40-60% of
average) precipitation in the eastern portions of
the province and below normal (60-80% of
average) precipitation in the western portions of
the province. Environment Canada reported below
average temperatures between November 2001
and April 2002. May temperatures and
precipitation were below average in most areas of
the province. The Milk River country along the
Montana border was in fair condition. Most of the
prairie grassland portions of strata 27, 28 and 29
were in poor condition. Dugouts were the main
water remaining and they ranged from dry to 1/4
full in the southern portions of the prairie
grasslands. Late spring snow storms near Calgary
continued into June, and dumped as much as 3
feet of snow at a time, decreasing duck nesting
habitat in those areas. The eastern portions of the
aspen parklands of Stratum 26 were mostly in
poor condition with areas of fair condition in a 50-
mile radius around Edmonton and Red Deer. The
agriculture to forest transition zone and the
parklands of stratum 75 and 76 were generally in
fair condition. May ponds were unchanged from
2001, and were 35% below the long-term average
(P<0.005). Total duck, mallard, blue-winged teal,
Northern shoveler, canvasback, pintails, and
scaup estimates did not change relative to 2001,
but all remained below long-term averages
(P<0.001). American wigeon decreased relative to
2001 counts (-59%, P=0.016), and were 75%
below their long-term average (P<0.001). Gadwall,
green-winged teal and redhead populations
remained unchanged relative to 2001 estimates
and to long-term averages. Southern Alberta
received significant June precipitation, but wetland
conditions remained fair to poor, with the
exception the extreme southwest, where
conditions were good as of July. The July pond
index was similar to 2001, and 31% below the
long-term average (P<0.001). The July brood
index was 40% below last year's and 73% below
the long-term average. The late-nesting index was
61% higher than last year's, but 21% below the
long-term average.
Southern Saskatchewan: Wetland habitat was in
extremely poor condition over the entire Southern
Saskatchewan (Strata 30-35) survey area and the
majority of wetland basins were dry during the
survey. No ephemeral or temporary wetlands
were observed and the few seasonal or semi-permanent
basins that held water during the
survey period were low. During the winter, the
west, northwest, and northeast parts of the survey
area received well below-average precipitation.
The rest of the survey area received below
average precipitation. Below average precipitation
and above average temperatures during the
winter resulted in little to no runoff this spring, with
the exception of March, when temperatures were
below average. Record setting dry conditions
predominated during April and May with the driest
conditions located in the central and northern
parts of the survey area (<40% of average
precipitation). May was characterized by below-average
temperatures and by several snowstorms
in the south. Residual cover for early-nesting
species was sparse due to below average
precipitation during the 2001 growing season. The
May pond estimate was down 59% from 2001,
68% below the long-term mean (P<0.001), and
was the second lowest since the survey began.
Total ducks (-45%, -52% LTA), mallards (-26%,
17
-42% LTA), blue-winged teal (-47%, -45% LTA),
Northern shovelers (-57%, -50% LTA), gadwalls
(-50%, -34% LTA), Northern pintails (-73%, -83%
LTA), redheads (-58%, -50% LTA), canvasbacks
(-68%, -61% LTA), and scaup (-53%, -65% LTA)
were all down relative to 2001 estimates
(P<0.001) and their long-term averages
(P<0.001). Wigeon and green-winged teal were
61% and 45% below their long-term averages,
respectively (P<0.001). June rains brought some
drought relief to the southern grasslands and
flooding to the southwest corner of the Province,
but the central grasslands and Parklands
remained dry. July pond indices were 58% below
both 2001 and long-term average estimates. July
brood indices were 63% below last year's and
71% below the long-term average. The late-nesting
index was similar to last years, but 50%
below the long-term average.
Southern Manitoba: May conditions in Southern
Manitoba (strata 36-40) were generally cold and dry,
pushing the region further into drought. In June,
precipitation was above average, but came too late to
benefit most nesting waterfowl. In May and July,
large flocks of ducks were observed, and most were
judged as likely non-breeders. The west-central area
(Stratum 40) was in good condition in May, and was
improved by June rains. However, other areas were
rated fair to poor, and were little improved by late
precipitation. May pond counts were 58% below the
2001 estimate and 52% below the long-term average
(P<0.001). Total duck (-27%, -16% LTA), blue-winged
teal (-52%, -41% LTA), and Northern pintail (-
67%, -75% LTA) estimates were down from 2001,
and below their long-term averages (P<0.001).
Northern shovelers were down 50% relative to 2001
(P=0.002), but similar to their long-term average.
Wigeon, green-winged teal and scaup estimates
were similar to 2001 numbers, but below their long-term
averages. Gadwall was similar to 2001
estimates, and remained above the long-term mean
(+114%, P<0.001). Mallard, redhead and
canvasback numbers remained unchanged relative
to 2001 estimates and long-term averages. July
pond indices were down 52% compared to 2001
(P<0.001), but were similar to the long-term
average. July brood indices were 48% lower than
last year and 47% below the long-term average.
The late-nesting index was more than 75% above
that of 2001 and the long-term average.
Montana and Western Dakotas: In Montana (strata
41-42) and the western Dakotas (strata 43-44),
conditions were variable. South Dakota showed a
12% increase in wetland numbers since May
2001. Habitat conditions were deemed poor in the
west, though fair in the southeast, and good in
central portions of the stratum. Production is
expected to be below average due to the loss of
early nests and crowding on remaining wetlands.
Wetland counts in North Dakota decreased
compared to last year and were below long-term
averages. Larger ponds and stock dams
contained adequate water, although depleted
water levels were the rule. Residual nesting cover
was rated below average. Nesting was late in
western South Dakota, and normal to below
production was expected. Montana was drier than
the Dakotas, with most areas rated fair to poor.
Overall, May pond counts were unchanged from
2001, but were 34% below (P<0.001) the long-term
average. Total ducks were down 16%
relative to 2001 (P=0.037) and were 18% below
the long-term average (P<0.001). Northern pintails
were below the 2001 estimate (-37%, P=0.027)
and 64% below the long-term average (P<0.001).
Gadwall numbers were 54% (P=0.002) below the
2001 estimate but similar to the long-term
average. Wigeon were similar to there 2001 count,
but 59% below the long-term average (P<0.001).
Green-winged teal were unchanged from the 2001
estimate, and remained above their long-term
average (P=0.01). Mallards, blue-winged teal,
Northern shovelers, redheads, canvasbacks and
scaup were unchanged relative to 2001 estimates
and long-term averages. July pond indices were
34% higher than in 2001 (P=0.025), but remained
19% below the long-term average (P=0.046). July
brood indices were 46% lower than last year and
50% below the long-term average. The late-nesting
index was 15% below last year's and 43%
below the long-term average. Extensive mowing
of Conservation Reserve Program land may have
hampered late nesting.
Eastern Dakotas: A relatively mild and dry winter
was followed by a late, cold spring in North and
South Dakota. Habitat conditions in the eastern
Dakotas (strata 45-49) deteriorated since the spring
of 2001 and ranged from poor to good. Residual
upland nesting cover was generally adequate but
over-water nesting sites were reduced due to
diminished water conditions. Temporary and
seasonal wetland basins were generally dry and
most semi-permanent basins were at least partly
recessed. This natural draw down should
eventually revive wetland productivity, but
meanwhile, some dry basins are being cultivated
for agriculture, which may have a negative impact.
May ponds were 40% below last year's figure
(P<0.001), but similar to the long-term average.
18
Estimates of total ducks (-29%), mallards (-26%),
and blue-winged teal (-31%) were down relative to
2001 figures (P<0.001), but remained above long-term
averages (P<0.001). Northern pintails were
down 62% from the 2001 estimate (P<0.001), and
were 46% below the long-term average (P<0.001).
Gadwall and wigeon estimates did not differ from
last year's, but were above their long-term
averages (P<0.002). Northern shoveler numbers
were down relative to 2001, but remained above
the long-term average. Green-winged teal,
redheads and canvasbacks did not differ
significantly from their 2001 estimates or long-term
averages, though canvasbacks were 50%
below the 2001 figure (P=0.054). July pond
indices were down 33% compared to 2001
(P<0.001) and similar to the long-term average.
July brood indices were 34% lower than last year,
but 67% above the long-term average. The late-nesting
index was 53% lower than in 2001, and
82% below the long-term average.
Northern Saskatchewan, Northern Manitoba, and
Western Ontario: Northern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba (strata 21-25, stratum 50) experienced
one of the latest springs in recent history. Most
areas received below normal precipitation over the
winter. Cool temperatures persisted through May,
and ice on the larger lakes was slow to break up.
However, beaver ponds and reverie habitats had
attracted early-nesting waterfowl several weeks
earlier. As a result, the nesting season was
protracted. Some basins were dry in May,
especially in the southwestern portion of the
survey area. However the reduced precipitation
created more exposed shoreline habitat along
permanent lakes and rivers. The absence of
flooding along these expansive shorelines and
associated upland meadows, combined with good
beaver pond habitat, made for stable nesting
conditions. Western Ontario (Stratum 50)
experienced a cold, wet spring. As late as May
18, many large lakes in the southern portion of the
Stratum remained 50-80% ice covered. Large
lakes in the northern areas were 100% frozen.
Rivers, marshes, and shallow lakes were open,
but availability of this habitat was limited by skim
ice that formed nightly in the cool temperatures
and large areas remained too cold for duck
nesting throughout the season. Overall, the total
duck estimate for the region was 70% above last
year's (P<0.001) and was 27% above the long-term
average (P<0.001). Mallards (+85%), wigeon
(+103%), blue-winged teal (+107%) and redheads
(+249%) all increased compared to 2001
(P<0.01), but remained unchanged from their
long-term averages. Green-winged teal (+87%,
P=0.011) also increased since last year, and were
83% above their long-term average (P=0.006).
Northern pintails and scaup did not change
relative to their 2001 numbers, but remained 74%
and 37% below their long-term averages,
respectively. Gadwall, Northern shoveler, and
canvasback numbers were similar to last year's
estimates and to long-term averages.
Northern Alberta, Northeastern British Columbia, and
Northwest Territories: Conditions were generally
good to excellent in northern Alberta, northeastern
British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories
(strata 13-18, 20, 75-77). In particular, the numerous
small lakes on the Canadian shield near Yellowknife
(strata 16 and 17) do not dry out as easily as those
further south in the boreal forest plains. Despite the
good conditions, production by early-nesting species
such as mallards and green-winged teal was likely
tempered by the very late spring in this area. Spring
thaw was about 3 weeks later than normal. For
scaup and scoters, which nest later in the season,
good production is expected. Total ducks were up
20% over last year (P=0.003), but unchanged
from the long-term average. Mallards, green-winged
teal, and redheads were similar to 2001
estimates and to their long-term averages.
Gadwall numbers were unchanged from 2001, but
were 292% above their long-term average
(P<0.001). Wigeon, Northern pintails, and scaup
did not change relative to last year's estimates,
but remained 28%, 53%, and 34% below their
long-term averages (P<0.009). The estimate for
blue-winged teal was 154% higher than last year's
(P=0.003), but did not differ from its long-term
average. Northern shovelers (+82%) and
canvasbacks (+93%) were higher than 2001
estimates (P<0.03), and each was more than 70%
above its long-term average for the area.
Alaska and Old Crow Flats, Yukon Territory: In
Alaska and Old Crow Flats (strata 1-12), breeding
conditions depend largely on the timing of spring
phenology, because wetland conditions are less
variable than on the prairies. In general, Alaska
experienced a late spring until the last part of May,
when temperatures warmed dramatically in most
important waterfowl nesting areas. Record high
temperatures also resulted in rapid snowmelt,
which caused high water in many rivers and some
flooding, especially along the Koyukuk, Innoko
and lower Yukon rivers. Overall, good waterfowl
production is anticipated, except in those flooded
areas. The total duck estimate was 23% lower
than last year's, but remained 46% above the
19
long-term average. Mallard (+106%), wigeon
(+119%), and Northern shoveler (+147%)
estimates were all higher than their long-term
averages (P<0.001) but did not differ from 2001
estimates. Green-winged teal were 39% below the
2001 estimate, but 97% above their long-term
average (P<0.001). Scaup were 31% below the
2001 estimate, but unchanged from the long-term
average for the region. Neither canvasback or
Northern pintails were statistically different from
their 2001 estimates or long-term averages,
though pintail numbers dropped 34% relative to
2001 (P=0.05).
Eastern Survey Area: Breeding waterfowl habitat
conditions in the eastern survey area (strata 51-56
and 62-69) were highly variable, but all areas
experienced a warm, dry winter. In the New York,
Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec survey
area (Strata 52-56) the winter of 2001-2002 was
warm and dry, and drought conditions persisted
throughout much of this region. Waterfowl
returned early to this region, but early spring
habitat conditions were poor. However, several
weeks before and during surveys, cooler
temperatures and increased precipitation were the
rule, and wetland habitat conditions greatly
improved. A similar weather pattern was reported
for western Ontario (Strata 50 and 51). Maine and
the southern Maritimes (Strata 62-65) experienced
a warm, dry winter, and above normal
temperatures and precipitation in early spring that
produced good to excellent conditions for
breeding ducks. By contrast, Newfoundland and
Labrador (Strata 66 and 67) experienced a late,
cool spring. In Newfoundland, temperatures
moderated and good waterfowl production was
expected, but extended cold, stormy weather in
Labrador made for poor nesting conditions. Total
duck (+32%), green-winged teal (+174%), and
merganser (+90%) estimates increased relative to
last year (Table 6, Appendix G, P<0.007), and all
were above their long-term averages (P<0.020).
Scoter counts did not differ from the 2001
estimate, but were 178% above their long-term
average (P=0.010). Estimates for other species
did not differ significantly from 2001 counts or
from long-term averages.
Other areas: Breeding habitat conditions in British
Columbia were below average this year and
worse than in the previous 4 years.
Approximately 9,000 ducks were observed in British
Columbia’s annual survey, statistically similar to 2001
counts and the long-term average. In Washington, 3
years of drought led to the lowest pond count in
eastern Washington since 1994. The Washington
2002 total duck breeding pair index was 133,000,
down from 146,000 the previous year. Mallard pair
numbers went from 50,500 in 2001 to 44,700 in
2002, and were 20% below the long-term average. In
California, spring weather was cooler and drier after a
winter of average precipitation. Nesting effort was
delayed, and likely reduced. Below-average duck
production is expected, with the exception of the
Sacramento Valley, where average production is
expected due to above-average nesting success.
Total duck numbers remained unchanged from last
year, but were 37% below the long-term average.
Mallards were not significantly different from their
2001 estimate, but were 32% below the long-term
average. A moderate to severe drought prevailed in
much of the western U.S throughout the spring and
summer. In Nebraska, wetland conditions were
generally fair to average and all portions of the
Sandhills were drier in 2002 than in 2001. The
estimated breeding duck population in the
Nebraska Sandhills for 2002 is 141,800 ducks,
37% below the 2001 estimate and 35% below the
1999-2001 average. This was lowest count since
new operational procedures were implemented.
Conditions in Nevada were dry; spring weather was
about 2 weeks later than normal, and poor duck
production was expected. Total duck pairs numbered
5,800, compared to 11,100 in 2001. Mallard pairs
were also lower than 2001 counts. The Lake States
received abundant rain, and conditions were
generally good in Minnesota, Wisconsin and
Michigan. Pond numbers decreased 16% in
Minnesota compared to 2001, but were right at the
1968-2001 average. Mallard numbers were
unchanged compared to 2001. Blue-winged teal
(+217%) rebounded from the very low levels seen in
2001, but many of these may have been delayed
migrants. Total ducks were up 64% from 2001, and
were the highest on record. Wisconsin total duck
numbers and mallard numbers were up from 2001
levels by 68% and 118%, respectively. In Michigan,
total ducks were up 36% from last year (P=0.019),
and were similar to the 1992-2001 average. Mallard
numbers did not differ from last year’s count, and
remained 26% below the long-term average
(P=0.03). In the Mid-Atlantic states, winter and spring
temperatures were normal to above-normal. Winter
precipitation was variable. As of May, soil moisture in
much of the mid-Atlantic was normal; however, the
piedmont and coastal plains of the mid-Atlantic and
southeastern states continued to suffer moderate to
severe drought. However, northwestern
Pennsylvania and western New York were wet, and
good duck production was expected. In New
England, water levels were normal, except for
20
eastern Maine, which was dry. Total duck and
mallard numbers from the Atlantic Flyway’s plot
survey were similar to the 2001 estimates (P>0.55)
and to the long-term averages (P>0.20).
Runge, M. C., F. A. Johnson, J. A. Dubovsky, W. L.
Kendall, J. Lawrence, J. Gammonley. 2002.
A revised protocol for the Adaptive Harvest
Management of Mid-Continent Mallards.
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/ahm02/
MCMrevise2002.pdf)
Mallard Fall-flight index
The size of the mid-continent mallard
population, which is comprised of mallards from
the traditional survey area, Michigan, Minnesota,
and Wisconsin, was 8.5 million birds (Fig. 4). This
is similar to that of 2001 (8.7 million). The 2002
mid-continent mallard fall-flight estimate is 8.9
million birds, statistically similar to the 2001
estimate of 9.7 million birds. These estimates
were based on revised mid-continent mallard
population models, and therefore, differ from
those previously published (USFWS Adaptive
Harvest Management Report 2002, Runge et al.
2002).
Sauer, J.R., and S. Droege. 1990. Wood duck
population trends from the North American
Breeding Bird Survey. Pages 159-165 in
L.H. Frederickson, G. V. Burger, S.P.
Havera, D.A. Graber, R.E. Kirby, and T.S.
Taylor, eds. Proceedings of the 1988 North
American Wood Duck Symposium, St.
Louis, MO.
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2002. Adaptive
Harvest Management: 2002 Duck Hunting
Season. U.S. Dept. Interior, Washington,
D.C. 47pp.
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/ahm02/
2002-AHM-report.pdf)
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2002. Waterfowl
Population Survey Section area reports.
(http://migratorybirds.fws.gov/reports/reports.
html.)
Fig. 4. Estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the size
of the mallard population in the fall.
References
Drought Watch on the Prairies, 2002. Agriculture
and Agri-Food Canada.
(http://www.agr.ca/pfra/drought.htm).
Environment Canada, 2002. Climate Trends and
Variations Bulletin. Green Lane Internet
publication Downsview, ON.
(http://www1.tor.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/).
NOAA/USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility.
2001. Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.
Washington,D.C.
(http://www.usds.gov/oce/waob/jawf).
21
22
STATUS OF GEESE AND SWANS
Abstract: We provide information on the population status and productivity of 31 populations of North American Canada
geese (Branta canadensis), brant (B. bernicla), snow geese (Chen caerulescens), Ross's geese (C. rossii), emperor geese
(C. canagicus), white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) and tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus). Reproductive
performance of several goose populations likely were impacted by colder and dryer than average conditions during spring
migration in 2002. The timing of snowmelt in most areas of the Arctic was near average, but arrival to nesting areas and
initiation of nesting for many goose populations were delayed by adverse migration conditions. In the Hudson Bay
Lowlands and northern Quebec, a cold and snowy May delayed nesting and reduced production for several populations.
Throughout most of Alaska, Wrangel Island, and the northwestern Canadian mainland the timing of snowmelt was early
and conditions for nesting geese and swans were very favorable. Of the 25 populations for which current primary
population indices were available, 11 populations (Atlantic Population, Aleutian, and 4 resident populations of Canada
geese; greater snow geese; Pacific and Mid-continent White-fronted Goose Populations; Atlantic brant; and Eastern
Population tundra swans) displayed positive trends, and only Short Grass Prairie Population Canada geese displayed a
significant negative trend over the most recent 10-year period. Forecasts for production of young across the Arctic and
subarctic in 2002 varied regionally, but generally will be improved in western areas and reduced in eastern areas compared
to 2001.
This section summarizes information regarding the
status and expected fall flights of goose and tundra swan
populations in North America. Information was compiled
from a broad geographic area and is provided to assist
managers in regulating harvest. We have used the most
widely accepted nomenclature for various waterfowl
populations, but they may differ from other published
information. Some of the goose populations described
herein are comprised of more than one subspecies and
some light goose populations contain lesser snow geese
and Ross's geese.
Most populations of geese and swans in North America
nest in the Arctic or subarctic regions of Alaska and
Canada (Fig. 1), but several Canada goose populations
nest in southern Canada and the U.S. (“resident”
populations). Populations are monitored by various
methods on breeding, migration, or wintering areas. The
annual production of young by northern-nesting geese is
influenced greatly by weather conditions on the breeding
grounds, especially the timing of spring snowmelt and its
impact on the initiation of nesting activity (i.e., phenology).
Persistent snow cover reduces nest site availability, delays
nesting activity, and often results in depressed
reproductive effort and productivity. In general, goose
productivity will be better than average if nesting begins by
late May in western and central portions of the Arctic, and
by early June in the eastern Arctic. Production usually is
poor if nesting is delayed much beyond 15 June. For
“resident” Canada goose populations, recruitment rates
are less variable but local productivity is influenced by
drought and flood events.
METHODS
Population estimates for geese are derived from a
variety of surveys conducted by biologists from Federal,
State, and Provincial agencies, and universities
(Appendices B, I, and J). Surveys include the Midwinter
Survey (MWS, conducted each January in wintering
areas), the Breeding Population and Habitat Survey
(BPHS, see Duck section of this report), surveys
specifically designed for various populations, and others.
When survey methodology allowed, 95% confidence
intervals were presented with population estimates. The
10-year trends of population estimates were calculated
through regression of the natural logarithm of survey
results on year, and the slope coefficient was presented
and tested for equality to zero (t-test). Changes in
population indices between the current and previous years
were calculated, and where possible assessed with a z-test
using the sum of sampling variances for the 2
estimates. Primary population indices, those related to
population objectives, are described first in population-specific
sections.
Due to the preparation of this report prior to complete
field assessment of goose and swan reproduction, the
annual productivity of most goose populations can only be
predicted qualitatively. Information on habitat conditions
and forecasts of productivity were based primarily on
information from various waterfowl surveys and interviews
with field biologists. These reports provide reliable
information for specific locations but may not provide
accurate assessment for the vast geographic range of
waterfowl populations.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Spring Conditions
The spring migration period of 2002 was characterized
by a prolonged period of below-average temperatures
across a broad area of mid-latitude Canada. These cold
conditions retarded ice and snowmelt and delayed the
nesting of geese and swans in several eastern areas.
La Perouse Bay
Cape Henrietta
Maria
Banks
Island
Bylot
Island
Southampton
Island
Ungava
Peninsula
James
Bay
Akimiski
Island
McConnell
River
Queen
Maud
Gulf
Copper
River
Yukon River
Kuskokwim River
Yukon-Kuskokwim
(Y-K) Delta
Baffin Island
Foxe
Basin
Labrador
Plain of
Koukdjuak
Wrangel
Island
Anderson
River
Mackenzie
River Delta
Victoria I
C. Churchill
North Slope
Hudson Bay
Greenland
23
Fig. 1. Important goose nesting areas in Arctic and subarctic North America.
24
These conditions also delayed the migration of
Arctic-nesting waterfowl whose nesting grounds had
not been subjected to such harsh conditions. Many
biologists reported that geese arrived to the nesting
areas after nesting sites had been exposed for some
time, an anomaly for species that generally initiate
nests as soon as snowmelt allows. It is uncertain at
this time if, 1) the delayed migration of 2002
depleted the energy reserves on which geese and
swans rely during nesting, or allowed geese to build
and maintain those reserves during the increased
period in southern climates; and if, 2) the more
advanced vegetative growth present during the
delayed nesting period will ameliorate the negative
effects on reproduction usually associated with
delayed nesting. In addition to harsh spring
temperatures, migrating waterfowl were subjected to
reduced wetland abundance in the prairies of
Canada and the U.S. Questions regarding the
impacts of conditions in 2002 will be answered as
more information is compiled from nesting studies
and summer banding programs.
Conditions in the Arctic and Subarctic
Biologists report that spring phenology was early
throughout most of Alaska, Wrangel Island, the
Mackenzie Delta, and the northwestern Canadian
mainland. In contrast, the Hudson Bay Lowlands
(near Hudson and James Bays), northern Quebec,
and Labrador experienced the arrival of spring-like
conditions 2 or more weeks later than average. On
the Copper River Delta and some areas in interior
Alaska, the Queen Maud Gulf, and most islands of
the Canadian Archipelago, spring phenology was
near average. The snow and ice cover graphic (Fig.
2, provided by the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration) indicates the advanced
spring conditions in Alaska and the delayed spring
conditions in Quebec and near Hudson Bay
compared to 2001.
Conditions in Southern Canada and the United
States
Conditions influencing goose productivity vary less
from year to year in mid-latitude areas of North
America than in the Arctic. Given adequate wetland
numbers and the absence of flood events these
southern-nesting populations are reliably
productive. Although the harsh conditions in
Spring 2002 may have delayed nesting for
resident Canada geese in these areas, impacts
on production are not expected to be large. The
Canadian prairies and portions of the western U.S.
are experiencing drought conditions which may
substantially reduce production of young in these
areas. Reports of flooding during the nesting period
were limited to a few areas in 2002.
Status of Canada Geese
North Atlantic Population (NAP): NAP Canada
geese principally nest in Newfoundland and
Labrador. They generally mix during winter with
other Atlantic Flyway Canada geese, although NAP
have a more coastal distribution than those other
populations (Fig. 3).
During the 2002 BPHS biologists estimated
62,000 indicated pairs (singles plus pairs) in NAP
range (strata 66 and 67), essentially unchanged
from 2001 (57,800, Fig. 4). Indicated pair estimates
have declined an average of 6% per year since
surveys were initiated in 1996 (P=0.28). A total of
192,600 (+ 59,956) Canada geese were estimated,
Fig. 2. The extent of snow and ice cover in North America for 3 June, 2001 and 2 June, 2002. The figures
were produced from reports prepared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
2001 2002
Tall Grass
Prairie
North
Atlantic
Southern
James Bay
Mississippi Valley
Short Grass
Prairie
Pacific
Dusky
Atlantic
Cackling
Hi-line
Western Prairie
Eastern
Prairie
Atlantic
Flyway
Resident
Aleutian
Rocky
Mountain Great
Plains
Mississippi
Flyway
Giant
25
Lesser and
Taverner’s
Fig. 3. Approximate ranges of Canada goose populations in North America.
26
during the BPHS, 49% higher than last year
(P=0.28). Total goose estimates have declined an
average of 3% per year during 1996-2002 (P=0.44).
A cold and snowy May delayed nesting 2 weeks or
more in Labrador and nesting effort is expected to
be poor. Spring conditions on insular Newfoundland
were delayed but not as severely as in Labrador. A
NAP fall flight similar to last year is expected.
Atlantic Population (AP): AP Canada geese nest
throughout much of Quebec, especially along
Ungava Bay, the eastern shore of Hudson Bay, and
on the Ungava Peninsula. The AP winters from New
England to South Carolina, but the largest
concentration occurs on the Delmarva Peninsula
(Fig. 3).
Spring AP surveys estimated 164,800 (+ 29,700)
indicated breeding pairs in 2002, 12% higher than
last year (P=0.41, Fig. 5). This population continues
to increase from a low of 29,000 breeding pairs in
1995. The breeding pair estimates have increased
13% per year since 1993 (P=0.03). The estimated
total spring population of 973,600 (+ 210,300) geese
in 2002 was 53% higher than last year (P=0.01).
Spring phenology in 2002 was late and conditions
along the Hudson Bay Coast, where much of the AP
nests, were especially delayed. During surveys, a
record low proportion of geese were observed as
singles, suggesting a poor nesting effort. Ground
studies confirmed late nesting phenology and lower
than average clutch sizes and nest success. A fall
flight smaller than last year is expected.
Atlantic Flyway Resident Population (AFRP): This
population inhabits southern Quebec, the southern
Maritime provinces, and all States of the Atlantic
Flyway (Fig. 3).
Spring surveys in 2002 estimated there were
966,000 (+ 170,400) Canada geese in the
northeastern United States (Fig. 6), about 4% lower
than the previous year’s count (P=0.72). These
estimates have increased an average of 5% per
year since 1993 (P<0.001). Nesting conditions in
most States were average to good. A large fall flight,
similar to last year is expected.
Southern James Bay Population (SJBP): This
population nests on Akimiski Island and in the
Hudson Bay Lowlands to the west and south of
James Bay. The SJBP winters from southern
Ontario and Michigan to Mississippi, Alabama,
Fig. 6. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of Atlan-tic
Flyway Resident Population Canada geese during spring.
Fig. 5. Estimated number of breeding pairs (and 95% confidence
intervals) of Atlantic Population Canada Geese in northern
Quebec.
Year
'88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02
Thousands
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Fig. 4. Estimated number of North Atlantic Population Canada
Geese indicated pairs (and 95% confidence intervals) during
spring.
Year
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02
Thousands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Year
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
27
Georgia, and South Carolina (Fig. 3).
Breeding ground surveys indicated a spring
population of 76,300 (+ 18,300) Canada geese in
2002, 26% lower than last year (P=0.12, Fig. 7).
There was no indication of a trend in these estimates
since 1993 (P=0.87). In 2002 there were 29,056 (+
10,600) breeding pairs, which is 15% lower than last
year (P=0.47). Molt migrants likely were not a factor
in this year’s survey but variability in phenology
throughout SJBP range and prolonged nest initiation
periods may have reduced survey efficiency.
Overwinter snowfall in the SJBP range was light and
the timing of initial snowmelt was about average.
However, coastal areas and Akimiski Island were
subjected to May snowfall, which together with
subsequent melt and flooding, delayed nest site
availability and prolonged the nest initiation period.
On Akimiski Island, clutch sizes were below average
and nest success (52%) was the lowest recorded
since 1993. Overall, reproductive effort and success
of SJBP geese was below average and a fall fight
lower than last year is expected.
Mississippi Valley Population (MVP): The principal
nesting range of this population is in northern
Ontario, especially in the Hudson Bay Lowlands,
west of Hudson and James Bays. MVP Canada
geese primarily concentrate during fall and winter in
Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan (Fig. 3). The
southern boundary of the nesting range was
redefined in early 2002 and has resulted in slightly
lower population estimates for this population
(correction also applied to previous estimates).
Breeding ground surveys conducted in 2002
indicated a total population of 544,000 (+ 148,400)
Canada geese, a 40% increase from last spring
(P=0.06, Fig. 8). These estimates have declined an
average of 2% per year since 1993 (P=0.54).
Biologists estimated there were 143,300 (+ 24,700)
nests in 2002, 13% fewer than in 2001 (P=0.22).
Estimates of MVP nests have declined an average
of 3% per year during 1993-2002 (P=0.12). Molt
migrants likely were not a factor in this year’s survey.
Coastal and northern portions of the MVP breeding
range experienced a cold and snowy May which,
with subsequent flooding, delayed nesting activities.
In interior portions of the range snowmelt and
nesting phenology was near normal but late snows
and cold temperatures may reduce nest success
and production. Ground studies in the coastal area
indicated reduced nest density, clutch sizes, and
nest success consistent with the delayed phenology.
A fall flight smaller than last year is predicted.
Mississippi Flyway Giant Population (MFGP):
Giant Canada geese have been reestablished or
introduced in all States. This large subspecies now
represents a significant portion of all Canada geese
in the Mississippi Flyway (Fig. 3).
This population has been monitored with spring
surveys since 1993. In 2002, the preliminary
population estimate was 1,460,000, 6% higher than
the 2001 estimate (Fig. 9). These estimates have
increased an average of 6% per year since 1993
(P<0.001). Although flooding occurred in some
States, biologists reported average to good nesting
conditions in most areas. Another large fall flight is
expected.
Fig. 7. Estimated total population (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Southern James Bay Population Canada geese during spring.
Fig. 8. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Mississippi Valley Population Canada geese during spring.
Year
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02
Thousands
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Year
'89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02
Thousands
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
28
Eastern Prairie Population (EPP): These geese
nest in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of Manitoba and
migrate and winter primarily in Manitoba, Minnesota,
and Missouri (Fig. 3).
The 2002 spring estimate of EPP geese was
216,300 (+ 26,400), similar to the 2001 estimate of
215,400 (Fig. 10). Spring estimates have increased
an average of 3% per year over the last 10 years
(P=0.28). The 2002 estimate of singles and pairs
was 152,000 (+ 19,100), 24% higher than last year
(P=0.02). A colder than average winter and late
spring contributed to delayed nesting phenology in
EPP range in 2002. Nesting studies near Cape
Churchill indicated the second latest phenology on
record. Nesting effort, clutch size, and nest success
near Cape Churchill were reduced from 2001 levels,
but higher than predicted by long-term relationships
with phenology. Biologists expect a fall flight similar
in size or larger than last year.
Western Prairie Population and Great Plains
Populations (WPP/GPP): The WPP is composed of
mid-sized and large Canada geese that nest in
eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. The
GPP is composed of large geese resulting from
restoration efforts in Saskatchewan, North Dakota,
South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and
Texas. Geese from these breeding populations
commingle during migration with other Canada
geese along the Missouri River in the Dakotas and
on reservoirs from southwestern Kansas to Texas
(Fig. 3). These 2 populations are managed jointly
and surveyed during winter.
During the 2002 MWS survey, 710,300 WPP/GPP
geese were counted, 4% more than the 2001
estimate (Fig. 11). This index has increased an
average of 10% per year since 1993 (P<0.001). A
2002 index of the spring population in a portion of
WPP/GPP range from the BPHS was 567,400. The
BPHS estimates have also increased an average of
10% per year since 1993 (P<0.01). Nesting
conditions in Saskatchewan were very dry and
spring phenology was delayed. Northern States in
GPP range indicated production appeared near
average in 2002 but some southern States reported
poor production due to drought. The WPP/GPP
remains well above objective levels, but a fall flight
lower than last year is expected.
Tall Grass Prairie Population (TGPP): TGPP
small Canada geese nest on Baffin (particularly on
the Great Plain of the Koukdjuak), Southampton,
and King William Islands, north from the Maguse
and McConnell Rivers on the Hudson Bay coast,
and west to the Queen Maud Gulf. TGPP Canada
Fig. 11. Estimated number of Western Prairie Population/Great
Plains Population Canada geese during winter.
Fig. 10. Estimated number (and 95% confidence intervals) of
Eastern Prairie Population Canada geese during spring.
Fig. 9. Estimated number of Mississippi Flyway Giant Population of
Canada geese during spring.
Year
'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02
Thousands
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Year
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
29
geese winter mainly in Oklahoma, Texas, and
northeastern Mexico (Fig. 3). These geese mix with
other Canada geese on wintering areas, making it
difficult to estimate the size of the population.
During the 2002 MWS in the Central Flyway
504,700 TGPP geese were tallied, but methods
were not comparable to previous surveys (Fig. 12).
Previous MWS estimates in the Central Flyway had
increased an average of 4% per year during 1991-
2000 (P=0.15). Previous fall surveys of adult geese
1994-2001 on Baffin Island increased an average of
5% per year from 1994-2001 (P=0.14). Spring
breakup in 2002 was late in southern portions of
TGP range, and near average in northern areas, but
nesting may have been delayed further by late
arrival of geese (e.g., Southampton Island). At this
time, there is little information on TGPP goose
production or the impact of the cold conditions during
migration.
Short Grass Prairie Population (SGPP): SGPP
small Canada geese nest on Victoria and Jenny Lind
Islands and on the mainland from Queen Maud Gulf
west and south to the Mackenzie River and northern
Alberta. These geese winter in southeastern
Colorado, northeastern New Mexico, and the
Oklahoma and Texas panhandles (Fig. 3).
During the 2002 MWS, biologists counted
160,900 SGPP Canada geese, 2% fewer than in
2001 (Fig. 13). This index has declined 12% per
year since 1993 (P=0.02). A portion of the SGPP
breeding range in the Northwest Territories is
covered by the BPHS (strata 13-18). The 2002
BPHS estimated 138,300 (+ 68,400) SGPP geese, a
19% increase from 2001 (P=0.58). These estimates
have declined at an average of 1% per year since
1993 (P=0.78). Spring phenology near Queen
Maud Gulf and on islands to the north was near
average, earlier than average on western mainland,
and nesting conditions appeared favorable in the
boreal forest portions of SGPP range. Weather
conditions in the Queen Maud Gulf were mild during
the nesting period. At this time, the impact of the
cold conditions during migration on SGP
reproductive success is unknown.
Hi-Line Population (HLP): These large Canada
geese nest in southeastern Alberta, southwestern
Saskatchewan, eastern Montana and Wyoming, and
in Colorado. They winter in Colorado and in central
New Mexico (Fig. 3).
The 2002 MWS indicated a total HLP population
of 217,100 geese, which is 14% below last year’s
Fig. 13. Estimated number of Short Grass Prairie Population
Canada geese during winter.
Fig. 12. Estimated number of Tall Grass Prairie Population
Canada geese during winter in the Central Flyway.
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
100
200
300
400
500
600
*
* Changes in survey coverage or methodology - not comparable with previous surveys
*
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Fig. 14. Estimated number of Hi-Line Population Canada geese
during winter.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
30
estimate (Fig. 14). The MWS estimate has increased
an average of 6% per year since 1993 (P=0.04). An
estimate of the spring population was obtained from
the 2002 BPHS in areas of Saskatchewan, Alberta,
and Montana. The BPHS estimate was 231,000,
9% lower than the previous year (P=0.57). This
population estimate has also increased 6% per year
since 1993 (P<0.01). Nesting conditions were poor
to fair throughout much of the breeding range due to
drought. The fall flight of HLP geese is expected to
be reduced from that of last year.
Rocky Mountain Population (RMP): These large
Canada geese nest in southern Alberta, the inter-mountain
regions of Utah, Idaho, Nevada, and
Wyoming, and in western Montana. They winter
mainly in central and southern California, Arizona,
Nevada, Utah, Idaho, and Montana (Fig. 3).
During the 2002 MWS, 106,000 geese were
counted, a 4% decrease from the previous year (Fig.
15). MWS estimates have increased an average of
4% per year since 1993 (P=0.02). The estimated
spring population derived from the BPHS in 2002
was 134,700, 17% lower than last year (P=0.42).
The BPHS estimate has increased 6% per year
during the last 10 years (P=0.03). Most RMP
breeding areas are experiencing drought, which is
expected to reduce production. A fall flight lower
than last year is expected.
Pacific Population (PP): These large geese nest
and winter west of the Rocky Mountains from British
Columbia south through the Pacific northwest to
California (Fig. 3).
Wetland abundance in the range of the PP
continues to be reduced by drought. In California
and British Columbia, the 2002 estimates of
breeding geese increased 15% and 44% from 2001,
but remained 25% and 8% below the long-term
averages, respectively. BPHS indices of PP geese
in Alberta (strata 76-77) were 84,000 in 2002, 43%
higher than in 2001 (P=0.37), and have increased an
average of 12% per year since 1993 (P<0.01). The
size of the fall flight can not be reliably predicted
without more information.
Dusky Canada Geese: These mid-sized Canada
geese predominantly nest on the Copper River Delta
of southeastern Alaska. Dusky Canada geese
principally winter in the Willamette Valley and Lower
Columbia River of Oregon and Washington (Fig. 3).
The size of the population is estimated through
observations of marked geese during December and
January. The 2001-02 population estimate was
17,200 (+ 5,500), essentially unchanged from 2000-
01 (17,300, Fig. 16). These estimates have
increased an average 4% per year during the last
10-year period (P=0.19). Preliminary results from
the 2002 spring survey of the Copper River Delta
indicated the index of total Dusky geese increased
25%, and singles and pairs increased 10% from last
year’s levels. A cold spring delayed nesting 7-10
days, which reduced predation through improved
vegetative growth, improved nest concealment, and
the increased availability of alternative prey to
eagles. Gosling production appeared high. A fall
flight higher than last year is expected.
Cackling Canada Geese: Cackling Canada geese
nest on the Yukon Delta of western Alaska. They
primarily winter in the Willamette Valley and Lower
Columbia River of Oregon and Washington (Fig. 3).
Fig. 16. Estimated number of dusky Canada geese during winter.
Fig. 15. Estimated number of Rocky Mountain Population Canada
geese during winter.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
5
10
15
20
25
30
31
The index used for this population was a fall
estimate from 1979-98. Since 1999, the index has
been an estimate of the fall population derived from
spring surveys on the Yukon Delta. The 2002 fall
estimate is 136,100, 27% lower than in 2001. These
estimates have increased an average of 2% per
year since 1993 (P=0.21, Fig. 17). Surveys in the
coastal zone of the Yukon Delta during spring 2002
indicated total cackling geese decreased 33%, and
single and paired geese declined 14% from 2001.
Survey timing, excellent nest success, and goose
behavior (visibility bias) in 2002 may have
contributed to the lower population estimates. A
combination of early spring phenology, low levels of
fox predation, and lack of flooding contributed to
good production this spring, yet a fall flight smaller
than last year is expected.
Lesser and Taverner’s Canada Geese: These
subspecies nest throughout much of interior and
south-central Alaska and winter in Washington,
Oregon, and California (Fig. 3). Taverner’s geese
are more associated with the North Slope and
tundra areas, while lesser Canada geese tend to
nest in Alaska’s interior. However, these subspecies
mix with other Canada geese throughout the year
and reliable estimates of separate populations are
not presently available.
Spring breakup was early in western Alaska and
on the North Slope, and average throughout much of
interior Alaska. Despite a heavy snowpack in the
interior, only minimal flooding was observed. The
estimated number of Canada geese within BPHS
strata predominantly occupied by these geese
(strata 1-6, 8, 10-12) in 2002 declined 27% from
2001 levels, and have showed no trend since 1993
(P=0.63).
Aleutian Canada Geese (ACG): These geese
currently breed only on the Aleutian Islands although
historically they nested from near Kodiak Island,
Alaska, to the Kuril Islands in Asia. They now winter
along the Pacific Coast to central California. The
Aleutian Canada goose was listed as endangered in
1967 (the population numbered approximately 800
birds in 1974) and delisted in 2001.
An indirect population estimate based on
observations of neck-banded birds in California
2001-02 was 36,800, 24% higher than last year’s
estimate (P=0.29, Fig. 18). These indirect estimates
have increased an average of 11% per year over the
last 10 years (P<0.01). Nesting conditions were
favorable for Aleutian geese, with an early green-up
and little rain near hatching. Gosling production is
expected to be high.
Status of Light Geese
The term light geese refers to both snow geese
and Ross's geese, including both white and blue
color phases, and the lesser (C. c. caerulescens)
and greater (C. c. atlantica) subspecies of snow
goose. Another cumulative term, Mid-continent
Light Geese, includes lesser snow and Ross's
geese of 2 populations, the Mid-continent
Population and the Western Central Flyway
Population.
Ross's Geese: Most Ross's geese nest in the
Queen Maud Gulf region, but increasing numbers
summer along the western coast of Hudson Bay and
Fig. 17. Number of Cackling Canada geese estimated from fall and
spring surveys.
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Fig. 18. Number of Aleutian Canada geese estimated from winter
estimates and mark-resight methods.
Year
'74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
0
10
20
30
40
Ross's
Geese
Greater Snow
Geese
Atlantic Brant
Pacific Brant
Fig. 19. Approximate ranges of selected goose populations in North America.
Mid-continent
Population
Pacific
Population
Populations of Greater
White-fronted Geese
Mid-continent
Population
Western Arctic
Population
Western Central Flyway
Population
Populations of
Light Geese
Wrangel Island
Population
Populations of
Brant
Populations of
Light Geese
32
33
Southampton, Baffin, and Banks Islands. Ross's
geese are present in the range of 3 different
populations of light geese and primarily winter in
California, New Mexico, Texas, and Mexico, with
increasing numbers in Louisiana and Arkansas (Fig.
19).
Periodic photo-inventories and annual surveys in
the Queen Maud Gulf indicate the spring Ross's
goose population is increasing rapidly and has
exceeded 800,000 geese in recent years. Annual
estimates of total wintering population size are not
available, but surveys on wintering areas of light
geese indicate increases in range, number, and
proportions of Ross's geese. The largest Ross's
goose colony is near Karrak Lake in the Queen
Maud Gulf. Researchers estimated that 479,000
adult Ross's geese nested there in 2001 (Fig. 20).
These estimates have increased an average of 10%
per year from 1993-2001 (P<0.01). Spring
phenology in the Queen Maud Gulf was near
average in 2002, but light geese arrived and initiated
nesting later than average. Weather during nesting
was mild but impacts of poor conditions during
migration and late nest initiations are not known.
Similar or harsher conditions likely existed for Ross's
geese in areas of recent range expansion. The size
of the fall flight cannot be predicted without an
annual index to the size of the breeding population.
Mid-continent Population (MCP): This population,
including lesser snow and increasing numbers of
Ross's geese, nests along the west coast of Hudson
Bay and on Southampton and Baffin Islands
(Fig. 19). These geese winter primarily in eastern
Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
During the 2002 MWS, biologists counted
2,696,100 light geese, 15% more than last year (Fig.
21). Despite 3 years of decline from 1999-2001, the
MWS indices for the MCP have increased at an
average of 2% per year since 1993 (P=0.17). The
timing of spring breakup was later than average in
Ontario and Manitoba. Nesting activities were 2
weeks late at La Perouse Bay and researchers
noted geese staging in boreal forest areas prior to a
30 May migration to the north. Nest densities were
reduced at La Perouse Bay which appeared to
improve success of geese that did nest. Although
spring breakup was near normal on Southampton
and Baffin Islands, the arrival of geese, and the
initiation of nesting was later than average. Nesting
effort and distribution of snow geese on Baffin
Island’s Plain of the Koudjuak appeared reduced in
2002. MCP gosling production likely will be reduced
compared to last year’s good production, suggesting
the fall flight will be no larger than in 2001.
Western Central Flyway Population (WCFP): This
population is comprised primarily of snow geese but
includes a substantial proportion of Ross's geese.
WCF geese breed in the central and western
Canadian Arctic, with large nesting colonies near
the Queen Maud Gulf and on Banks Island. These
geese stage in fall in eastern Alberta and western
Saskatchewan and spend the winter in southeastern
Colorado, New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, and
the northern highlands of Mexico (Fig. 19).
WCFP geese wintering in the U.S. portion of their
range are surveyed annually, but the entire range,
including Mexico, is surveyed only once every 3
years. In the U.S. portion of the survey, 99,900
geese were counted in January 2002, 6% fewer
Fig. 21. Estimated number of Mid-continent Population light geese
(lesser snow and Ross’s geese) during winter.
Fig. 20. Estimated number of nesting adult Ross’s geese at Karrak
Lake Colony, Nunavut.
Year
'93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02
Thousands
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
34
than last year (Fig. 22). These MWS estimates have
increased an average of 7% per year since 1993
(P=0.17). Biologists working near Karrak Lake in the
Queen Maud Gulf region reported that spring
phenology was near average in 2002, but light
geese arrived and initiated nesting later than
average. Weather during nesting was mild but
impacts of poor conditions during migration and late
nest initiation are not known. Spring phenology on
Banks Island was near average and biologists
reported a good nesting effort. Survey crews
reported relatively small numbers of geese nesting
at the Anderson River and Kendall Island colonies,
where spring conditions were favorable. Production
likely will be near average for this population.
Western Arctic/Wrangel Island Population
(WAWI): Most of the snow geese in the Pacific
Flyway originate from nesting colonies in the
western and central Arctic (WA: Banks Island, the
Anderson and Mackenzie River Deltas, Jenny Lind
Island, the western Queen Maud Gulf region) or
Wrangel Island (WI), located off the northern coast of
Russia. The WA segment of the population winters
in central and southern California, New Mexico, and
Mexico; the WI segment winters in the Puget Sound
area of Washington and in northern and central
California (Fig. 19). Winter ranges overlap in
California and interchange of individuals between
the two breeding sites may occur. Separate winter
counts for the WA and WI segments are not
obtainable because of commingling with each other
and other light geese.
The fall 2001 estimate of WAWI snow geese was
448,100, 32% lower than estimated in 2000 (Fig.
23). Fall estimates have declined 1% per year 1992-
2001 (P=0.62). Spring phenology on Banks Island
was near average and biologists reported a good
nesting effort. Survey crews reported relatively small
numbers of geese nesting at the Anderson River
and Kendall Island colonies, where spring conditions
were favorable. At Wrangel Island’s Tundra River
colony, nesting phenology was early and the total
spring population was estimated at 107,500 geese,
slightly higher than last year. Biologists estimated
30,300 nests, an average clutch size over 4.0 eggs,
and nest success near 81%. Good production was
also observed at a smaller colony on Wrangel
Island. A snow storm and cold temperatures caused
some gosling mortality around the hatching period,
but biologists report the gosling production outlook
remained favorable. Good production from WI and
average or better production from Banks Island
should produce a fall flight similar to, or larger than
last year.
Greater snow geese (GSG): This subspecies
nests principally on Bylot, Axel Heiberg, Ellesmere,
and Baffin Islands, and on Greenland. They winter
along the Atlantic coast from New Jersey to North
Carolina (Fig. 19).
The preliminary estimate from the spring 2002
photographic survey of greater snow geese in the St.
Lawrence Valley was 639,300. This preliminary
estimate is 24% below last year’s final and record
high estimate of 837,400 geese (Fig. 24). Spring
estimates of greater snow geese have increased an
average of 4% per year since 1993 (P=0.01). The
number of snow geese counted during the 2002
MWS in the Atlantic Flyway was 377,800, a 34%
increase from the previous survey. Midwinter counts
have increased an average of 7% per year during
Fig. 23. Estimated number of Western Arctic/Wrangel Island
Population of light geese during winter.
Fig. 22. Estimated number of Western Central Flyway Population
light geese during winter in the United States.
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
0
50
100
150
200
250
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 Thousands
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
35
1993-2002 (P=0.02). The largest known greater
snow goose colony is on Bylot Island. There, spring
snowmelt progressed quickly and slightly earlier than
average, but geese arrived late, after nest sites had
become available. Nesting phenology was 3-4 days
later than average. Although nest densities in
portions of the colony were very high, the extent of
the colony and overall nesting effort was reduced
from 2001. Average clutch size was 3.4, however,
nest predation rates were high, and a 2-week period
of cold, rain, and snow likely will result in poor to
moderate production. A fall flight smaller than last
year is expected.
Status of Greater White-fronted Geese
Pacific Population (PP): These geese primarily
nest on the Yukon Delta of Alaska and winter in the
Central Valley of California (Fig. 19).
The index used for this population was a fall
estimate from 1979-98. Since 1999, the index has
been an estimate of the fall population derived from
spring surveys on the Yukon Delta. The 2002 fall
estimate is 358,000, 17% lower than in 2001 (Fig.
25). These estimates have increased an average of
3% per year since 1993 (P=0.02). Spring nesting
phenology on the Yukon Delta was among the
earliest on record. Spring aerial surveys in Alaska
indicated decreases in total white-fronts and
breeding pairs from 2001. Survey timing, excellent
nest success, and nesting goose behavior (visibility
bias) in 2002 may have contributed to the lower
population estimates. Spring estimates of total
geese have increased an average of 10% per year
from 1993-2002 (P<0.01). A fall flight similar to last
year is expected.
Mid-continent Population (MCP): These white-fronted
geese nest across a broad region from
central and northwestern Alaska across the central
Arctic to the Foxe Basin. They concentrate in
southern Saskatchewan during the fall and winter in
Texas, Louisiana, and Mexico (Fig. 19).
During the fall 2001 survey in Saskatchewan
and Alberta, biologists counted 712,300 MCP geese,
a decrease of 17% from the 2000 count (Fig. 25).
These population estimates have increased an
average of 3% per year during 1992-2001 (P=0.22).
Spring phenology on MCP breeding grounds was
early in northern Alaska and the Mackenzie and
Anderson River Deltas, and near average in interior
Alaska and the Queen Maud Gulf. White-fronts
reportedly arrived late to interior Alaska, but despite
a heavy snowpack there, only minimal flooding was
observed. Although central Arctic white-fronts may
have been influenced by cold migration conditions,
weather during the nesting period was mild in that
region. Production in 2002 is expected to be
average to above average for MCP white-fronted
geese.
Status of Brant
Atlantic Brant (ATLB): Most of this population
nests on islands of the eastern Arctic. These brant
winter along the Atlantic Coast from Massachusetts
to North Carolina (Fig. 19).
The 2002 MWS estimate of brant in the Atlantic
Flyway was 181,600, 25% more than last year’s
estimate (Fig. 26). These estimates have
increased an average of 4% per year for the most
Fig. 25. Estimated number of Mid-continent and Pacific
Populations of greater white-fronted geese during fall.
Fig. 24. Estimated number of greater snow geese during spring.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Year
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pacific
Mid-continent
36
recent 10-year period (P=0.05). Spring breakup in
2002 was near average in the eastern Arctic, but
brant reportedly arrived late to the breeding grounds.
The impacts of poor conditions during migration and
late arrival on brant productivity are not yet known.
Pacific Brant (PACB): These brant nest across
Alaska’s Yukon Delta and North Slope, Banks Island,
other islands of the western and central Arctic, the
Queen Maud Gulf, and Wrangel Island. They winter
as far south as Baja California and the west coast of
Mexico (Fig. 19).
The 2002 MWS in the Pacific Flyway and Mexico
resulted in a count of 136,200 brant, 9% higher than
the previous year’s count (Fig. 26). No trend was
indicated in these estimates during 1993-2002
(P=0.76). Spring breakup was among the earliest on
record on the Yukon Delta, earlier than average on
the North Slope, and near average on Banks Island.
Brant nest density varied among 5 Yukon Delta
colonies, from approximately 50% of the average
level (Kokechik) to slightly above average (Kigigak
and Tutakoke). However, nest success appears to
be good due to favorable nesting conditions and
more average fox population levels. A fall flight larger
than last year is expected.
Western High Arctic Brant (WHA): This recently
recognized population of brant nest on the Parry
Islands of the Northwest Territories. The
population stages in fall at Izembek Lagoon
Alaska. They predominantly winter in Padilla,
Samish, and Fidalgo Bays of Washington and
near Boundary Bay, British Columbia, although
some individuals have been observed as far
south as Mexico. Breast and belly plumage of
WHA brant are predominantly gray, intermediate
between Atlantic brant and Pacific brant, but
other color morphs have been captured in
molting flocks on breeding areas. The
development of a management plan and
monitoring program are underway for this newly
designated population.
Status of Emperor Geese
The breeding range of the emperor goose is
restricted to coastal areas of the Bering Sea, with
the largest concentration on the Yukon Delta in
Alaska. Emperor geese migrate relatively short
distances and primarily winter in the Aleutian
Islands (Fig. 27). Since 1981, emperor geese have
been surveyed annually on spring staging areas in
southwestern Alaska.
The spring 2002 emperor survey estimate was
58,700 geese, 30% lower than last year (Fig. 28).
These estimates have increased an average of 2%
per year since 1993 (P=0.45). Spring indices of
breeding pairs and total birds from the Yukon Delta
coastal survey decreased 9% and 28% from 2001,
respectively. Spring breakup and nesting phenology
were among the earliest on record on the Yukon
Delta and Emperor goose nest densities increased
in 2002. Ideal weather during nesting, low levels of
fox predation, and the lack of flooding contributed to
good production. A fall flight larger than last year is
expected.
Fig. 26. Estimated number of Atlantic and Pacific Populations of
brant during winter.
Year
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
Atlantic brant
Pacific brant
Eastern
Tundra
Swans
Western
Tundra
Swans
Emperor
Geese
Fig. 27. Approximate range of the Emperor goose, and eastern and
western swan populations in North America.
37
Status of Tundra Swans
Western Population: These swans nest along the
coastal lowlands of western Alaska, particularly
between the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers. They
winter primarily in California, Utah, and the Pacific
Northwest (Fig. 27).
The 2002 MWS estimate of 58,700 swans was
33% lower than the 2001 estimate (Fig. 29). These
estimates have been increasing at an average rate
of 2% per year since 1993 (P=0.63). The 2002
spring estimates of total swans, breeding pairs, and
nests on the Yukon Delta were all at record high
levels (since estimation started in 1985). Spring
breakup in western Alaska was among the earliest
on record and production is expected to be good. A
fall flight larger than last year is expected.
Eastern Population: Eastern Population tundra
swans nest from the Seward Peninsula of Alaska to
the northeast shore of Hudson Bay and Baffin
Island. These birds winter in coastal areas from
Maryland to North Carolina (Fig. 27)
During the 2002 MWS 104,100 eastern tundra
swans were observed, 6% more than last year (Fig.
29). During the last 10 years these estimates have
increased an average of 4% per year (P<0.01). In
the western portion of this population’s breeding
range, spring phenology was about 1 week early.
Indices of nesting tundra swans in the Mackenzie
Delta Region in 2002 nearly doubled from the late
year of 2001, and production is expected to be
average to above average. Near the Queen Maud
Gulf and farther east, spring phenology was near
average, but the migration of many species was
delayed by harsh conditions on staging areas.
Overall, a fall flight similar to last year is expected.
Fig. 29. Estimated numbers of the Eastern and Western
Populations of tundra swans during winter.
Year
'70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
30
50
70
90
110
130
Eastern Population
Western Population
Year
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Thousands
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Fig. 28. Estimated numbers of emperor geese present during May
surveys.
Appendix A. Individuals who supplied information on the status of ducks.
______________________________________________________________________________________
Alaska, Yukon Territory, and Old Crow Flats (Strata 1-12): B. Conant and D. Groves
Northern Alberta, Northeastern British Columbia, and Northwest Territories (Strata 13-18, 20, and 77):
C. Ferguson and A. Straughn
Northern Saskatchewan and Northern Manitoba (Strata 21-24): F. Roetker and P.H. Stinson
Southern and Central Alberta (Strata 26-29, 75, and 76)
Air E. Buelna and A. Davenport
Ground D. Duncan a, P. Pryor a, K. Froggatt b, S. Barry a, E. Hofman b, R. Arbuckle c, L. Crowe a, R. Hunka c, T.
Matthews c, M. Nieman a, B. Peers c, D. Pisiak c, C. Procter a, R. Russell b, J. Spenst a, S. Witham c
Southern Saskatchewan (Strata 30-35)
Air P. Thorpe, H. Bell, R. King, and K. Bollinger
Ground D. Nieman a, J. Smith a, K. Warner a, C. Downie a, D. Johns a, P. Nieman a, C. Park a, A. Williams a, D.
Caswell a, J. Caswell a, J. Leafloor a, C. Lindgren c, P. Rakowski a, M. Schuster a, F. Baldwin Jr. a, T.
Barney a, A. Dupuis a, J. Galbraith a
Southern Manitoba (Strata 25 and 36-40)
Air R. King and K. Bollinger
Ground G. Ball b, D. Caswell a, J. Caswell a, J. Leafloor a, C. Lindgren c, P. Rakowski a, M. Schuster a, F.
Baldwin Jr. a, T. Barney a, A. Dupuis a, J. Galbraith a
Montana and Western Dakotas (Strata 41-44)
Air J. Voelzer and R. Bentley
Ground A. Arnold d and S. McFall
Central and Eastern Dakotas (Strata 45-49)
Air J. W. Solberg and S. Thomas
Ground G.T. Allen, P.R. Garrettson, T. Menard, and F. Prellwitz
Northern Quebec (Strata 68 and 69): J. Wortham and M. Fernandez
New York, Eastern Ontario, and Southern Quebec (Strata 52-56): M. Koneff and C. Kitchens-Hayes
Central and Western Ontario (Strata 50 and 51): W. Butler, and B. Fisher
Maine and Maritimes (Strata 62-67): J. Bidwell and M. Drut
British Columbia: A. Breault b, P. Watts d, and 19 participants from the Canadian Wildlife Service, Ducks Unlimited
Canada, British Columbia Wildlife Branch, Canadian Parks Service, private organizations
California
Air D. Yparraguirre b and M. Weaver b
Ground D. Loughman d, J. Laughlin d, and N. Salvedes d
Colorado: J. Gammonley b
Michigan: S. Chadwick b, B. Dybas-Berger b, E. Flegler b, E. Kafcasb, A. Karr b, B. Lercel b, R. Matthews d, J.
Niewoonder b, T. Oliver b, J. Robison b, G. Souillereb, and V. Tuovila b
Minnesota
Air A. Buchert b and J. Lawrence b
Ground S. Kelly, J. Artmann, W. Brininger, B. Ehlers, J. Holler, S. Lewis, R. Papasso, T. Rondeau, R. Beam,
M. Carlson, D. Hertel, R. Johnson, J. Kelley, B. Russell, R. Schuldt, B. Wehrle, L. Wolff, S. Zodrow
Nebraska
Air D. Benning d and M. Vrtiska b
Ground R. Woods b, S. Oldenburger b, R. Walters b
Data Analysis M. Vrtiska b and S. Oldenburger b
Nevada N. Saake b
38
39
Appendix A. Continued.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Northeastern U.S.
Data Analysis: B. Raftovich
Connecticut: Connecticut Wildlife Division Staff
Delaware: T. Whittendale b
Maryland: D. Brinker b, T. Decker b, T. DeWitt b, B. Evans b, C. Harris b, B. Harvey b, D. Heilmeier b, W. Henry b, R.
Hill b, L. Hindman b, B. Joyce b, B. Martin b, M. Mause b, B. Perry b, D. Price b, G. Timko b, D. Webster b
Massachusetts: H. Heussman b and other Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife staff
New Hampshire: E. Robinson b, K. Bontaites b, K. Bordeau b, M. Fay b, W. Ingham b, J. Kelley b, E. Orff b, J. Robinson b,
W. Staats b, K. Tuttle b, A.Timmins b, T. Walski b, S. Wheeler b,
New Jersey: T. Nichols b, A. Burnett b, J. Garris b, B. Kirkpatrick b, J. Mangino b, D. Wilkinson b, J. Ziemba b, L.
Ziemba, N. Zimpfer b
New York: Staff and volunteers of the NY State Department of Environmental Conservation
Pennsylvania: J. Dunn b, J. Gilbert b, I. Gregg b, K. Jacobs b
Rhode Island: C. Allin b, C. Brown b, T. Silvia d, L. Supprock b, B. Tefft b
Vermont: T. Appleton, J. Austin b, D. Blodgett b, J. Buck b, P. Hamelin b, F. Hammond b, J. Mlcuch b, K. Royar b,
and D. Sausville b
Virginia: G. Costanzo b, T. Bidrowski b, and other staff of the Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries
Washington: D. Kraege b and R. Friesz b
Wisconsin
Air: L. Waskow b, B. Bacon b, C. Cold b, C. Milestone b, and P.Samerdyke b
Ground: T. Bahti b, K. Belling b, J. Cole b, G. Dahl b, D. Evenson b, B. Hill b, J. Huff b, M. Johnson b, K. Jonas b, M.
Kastler b, M. Kastler b, S. Krueger b, M. Lehner b, A. Mezera b, K. Morgan b, A. Nelson b, M. Ruwaldt b, P.
David b, D. North b, S. Krueger d, T. Connolly, R. Krueger, L. Nieman, J. Ruwaldt, J. Trick, D. Trudeau,
G. VanVreede, M. Bogenschneider d, T. Cook d
We also wish to acknowledge the following individuals and groups:
The states of the Atlantic and Mississippi Flyway and Regions 3, 4, and 5 of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for
collecting mid-winter waterfowl survey data, from which we extract black duck counts, and J. Serie, K. Gamble, and B.
Raftovich, for summarizing the counts; and the volunteers of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (a survey
coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Resources Division [USGS/BRD]) for data used in estimation of
wood duck population trends, and J. Sauer, USGS/BRD for conducting the wood duck trend analyses.
a Canadian Wildlife Service
b State, Provincial, or Tribal Conservation Agency
c Ducks Unlimited - Canada
d Other organization
All others – U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Appendix B. Individuals who supplied information on the status of geese and swans.
Coordinated Flyway-wide Surveys: M. Drut, K. Gamble, K. Kruse, J. Peterson, R. Raftovich, J. Serie, D. Sharp,
and R. Trost
Information from the Breeding Population and Habitat Survey: see Appendix A
North Atlantic Population of Canada Geese: J. Bidwell, M. Batemana, and J. Serie
Atlantic Population of Canada Geese: W. Harveyb, L. Hindmanb, A. Reeda, and J. Rodriguea
Atlantic Flyway Resident Population of Canada Geese: C. Allinb, P. Castellib, G. Chaskob, P. Corrb, G. Costanzob,
J. Dunnb, L. Garlandb, H. Heusmannb, L. Hindmanb, K. Jacobsb, W. Lesserb, P. Merolab, E. Robinsonb, T.
Whittendaleb, and S. Wilsonb
Southern James Bay Population of Canada Geese: K. Abrahamb, D. Fillmanb, J. Hughesa, J. Leafloora , K. Rossa,
and L. Waltonb
Mississippi Valley Population of Canada Geese: K. Abrahamb , J. Berquistb, D. Fillmana, J. Hughesa, J. Leafloora,
K. Rossa, and L. Waltonb
Mississippi Flyway Population Giant Canada Geese: S. Barryb, J. Berquist b, E. Fleglerb, D. Graberb, M. Kraftb, J.
Lawrenceb, D. Luukkonenb, R. Marshallab, M. Millerb, R. Pritchertb, S. Walterd, E. Warrb, and G. Zennerb
Eastern Prairie Population of Canada Geese: D. Andersend, M. Gillespieb, D. Humburgb, B. Lubinskib, S.
Maxsonb, R. Nackd, and P. Telanderb
Western Prairie and Great Plains Populations of Canada Geese: M. Kraftb, D. Niemana, M. O’Meiliab, S. Vaab,
M. Vritiskab
Tall Grass Prairie Population of Canada Geese: R. Caseb, D. Caswella, K. Dicksona, and M. Mallorya
Short Grass Prairie Population of Canada Geese: R. Alisauskasa, K. Dicksona, J. Hinesa, J. Leafloora, and D.
Niemana
Hi-Line Population of Canada Geese: J. Dubovsky, J. Gammonleyb, J. Hansenb, L. Robertsb, and S. Tessmanb
Rocky Mountain Population of Canada Geese: T. Aldrichb, J. Dubovsky, T. Sandersb , J. Herbertb, T. Hinzb, L.
Robertsb, S. Stiverb, and G. Willb
Pacific Population of Canada Geese: A. Breaulta, B. Balesb, C. Feldheimb, T. Hinzb, D. Kraegeb, S. Stiverb, and D.
Yparraguirreb
Dusky Canada Geese: M. Drut, B. Eldridge, T. Fondell, B. Grandd, B. Larned, D. Logand, M. Naughton, R. Oates, D.
Robertson, T. Rotheb, and R. Trost
Lesser and Taverner’s Canada Geese: B. Conant, E. Mallek, R. Oates, and M. Spindler
Cackling Canada Geese: M. Anthonyd, T. Bowman, C. Dau, B. Eldridge, D. Marks, R. Oates, B. Platte, R. Trost,
and B. Stehn,
Aleutian Canada Geese: V. Byrd, M. Drut, and R. Trost
Greater Snow Geese: A. Bechetd, K. Dicksona, A. Fontainea, G. Gauthierd, J. Girouxd, J. Hughesa, M. Mallorya, and
A. Reeda
Mid-continent Population Light Geese: K. Abrahamb, D. Caswella, K. Dicksona, M. Gillespieb, D. Humburgb, M.
Mallorya, R. Rockwelld, K. Rossa, and P. Telanderb
40
Appendix B. Continued.
Western Central Flyway Population Light Geese: R. Alisauskasa, J. Bredy, D. Caswella, K. Dicksona, R. Kerbesa,
P. Latoura, and D. Warnera
Western Arctic/Wrangel Island Population of Lesser Snow Geese: V. Baranukd, S. Boyda, J. Bredy, J. Hinesa,
D. Kraegeb, and R. Trost
Ross’s Geese: R. Alisauskasa, K. Dicksona, R. Kerbesa, D. Warnera, and K. Warnera
Pacific Population of Greater White-Fronted Geese: T. Bowman, C. Dau, B. Eldridge, D. Groves, D. Marks, B.
Platte, R. Oates, and B. Stehn
Mid-continent Population of Greater White-fronted Geese: R. Alisauskasa, R. Caseb, B. Conant, K. Dicksona, J.
Hinesa, R. Kerbesa, E. Malleck, D. Niemana, M. Spindler, and K. Warnera
Pacific Brant: R. Anthonyd, T. Bowman, R. Oates, and R. King
Atlantic Brant: P. Castellib, K. Dicksona, G. Gilchrist, M. Mallorya, A. Reeda
Western High Arctic Brant: D. Kraegeb, R. Trost
Emperor Geese: T. Bowman, C. Dau, B. Eldridge, R. King, D. Marks, R. Oates, B. Platte, and B. Stehn
Western Population of Tundra Swans: C. Dau, B. Eldridge, R. Oates, B. Stehn, and R. Trost
Eastern Population of Tundra Swans: C. Dau, J. Fischer, J. Hinesa, B. Larned, and R. Oates
aCanadian Wildlife Service
bState, Provincial, or Tribal Conservation Agency
cDucks Unlimited - Canada
dOther organization
All others - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
41
4
2
7
1
6
10 11
9
8
12 13
14
15
17
16
18
20
26
27
21
30
22
23
24
3
76 77
75
28
29 33
32
31
35
34
36
40 37
39 38
25
41
42
45
43 46
47
44 48
49
50 51
57
54
52
55
53
68
56 62
63
64
69
65
67
66
5
Appendix C. Transects and strata for areas of the Breeding Waterfowl and Habitat Survey (Traditional and Eastern).
42
Appendix D. Estimated number of May ponds and standard errors (in thousands) in portions of Prairie
Canada and the northcentral U.S.
Prairie Canada Northcentral U.S. a Total
Year Nˆ
E Sˆ Nˆ
E Sˆ Nˆ
SˆE
1961 1977.2 165.4
1962 2369.1 184.6
1963 2482.0 129.3
1964 3370.7 173.0
1965 4378.8 212.2
1966 4554.5 229.3
1967 4691.2 272.1
1968 1985.7 120.2
1969 3547.6 221.9
1970 4875.0 251.2
1971 4053.4 200.4
1972 4009.2 250.9
1973 2949.5 197.6
1974 6390.1 308.3 1840.8 197.2 8230.9 366.0
1975 5320.1 271.3 1910.8 116.1 7230.9 295.1
1976 4598.8 197.1 1391.5 99.2 5990.3 220.7
1977 2277.9 120.7 771.1 51.1 3049.1 131.1
1978 3622.1 158.0 1590.4 81.7 5212.4 177.9
1979 4858.9 252.0 1522.2 70.9 6381.1 261.8
1980 2140.9 107.7 761.4 35.8 2902.3 113.5
1981 1443.0 75.3 682.8 34.0 2125.8 82.6
1982 3184.9 178.6 1458.0 86.4 4642.8 198.4
1983 3905.7 208.2 1259.2 68.7 5164.9 219.2
1984 2473.1 196.6 1766.2 90.8 4239.3 216.5
1985 4283.1 244.1 1326.9 74.0 5610.0 255.1
1986 4024.7 174.4 1734.8 74.4 5759.5 189.6
1987 2523.7 131.0 1347.8 46.8 3871.5 139.1
1988 2110.1 132.4 790.7 39.4 2900.8 138.1
1989 1692.7 89.1 1289.9 61.7 2982.7 108.4
1990 2817.3 138.3 691.2 45.9 3508.5 145.7
1991 2493.9 110.2 706.1 33.6 3200.0 115.2
1992 2783.9 141.6 825.0 30.8 3608.9 144.9
1993 2261.1 94.0 1350.6 57.1 3611.7 110.0
1994 3769.1 173.9 2215.6 88.8 5984.8 195.3
1995 3892.5 223.8 2442.9 106.8 6335.4 248.0
1996 5002.6 184.9 2479.7 135.3 7482.2 229.1
1997 5061.0 180.3 2397.2 94.4 7458.2 203.5
1998 2521.7 133.8 2065.3 89.2 4586.9 160.8
1999 3862.0 157.2 2842.3 256.8 6704.3 301.1
2000 2422.2 96.1 1524.5 99.9 3946.9 138.6
2001 2747.2 115.6 1893.2 91.5 4640.4 147.4
2002 1439.0 105.0 1281.1 63.4 2720.0 122.7
a No comparable survey data available for the northcentral U.S. during 1961-73.
43
Appendix E. Breeding population estimates (in thousands) for total ducks a and mallards or states, provinces,
or regions that conduct spring surveys.
British Columbia b California Colorado Michigan Minnesota Nebraska
Year
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
Total
Ducks
Mallards
1955 c 101.5 32.0
1956 94.9 25.8
1957 154.8 26.8
1958 176.4 28.1
1959 99.7 12.1
1960 51.1 32.4 143.6 21.6
1961 58.7 32.4 141.8 43.3
1962 72.7 59.4 68.9 35.8
1963 78.0 62.1 114.9 37.4
1964 110.8 64.0 124.8 66.8
1965 111.9 60.2 52.9 20.8
1966 100.8 57.8 118.8 36.0
1967 122.2 69.7 96.2 27.6
1968 145.4 73.3 368.5 83.7 96.5 24.1
1969 138.1 57.5 345.3 88.8 100.6 26.7
1970 114.8 46.5 343.8 113.9 112.4 24.5
1971 121.4 48.3 286.9 78.5 96.0 22.3
1972 94.6 45.0 237.6 62.2 91.7 15.2
1973 112.3 45.2 415.6 99.8 85.5 19.0
1974 129.0 56.9 332.8 72.8 67.4 19.5
1975 156.7 38.2 503.3 175.8 62.6 14.8
1976 142.0 34.6 759.4 117.8 87.2 20.1
1977 536.6 134.2 152.4 24.1
1978 145.1 42.6 511.3 146.8 126.0 29.0
1979 103.2 30.9 901.4 158.7 143.8 33.6
1980 110.7 32.0 740.7 172.0 133.4 37.3
1981 188.4 36.4 515.2 154.8 66.2 19.4
1982 70.2 30.1 558.4 120.5 73.2 22.3
1983 130.6 44.2 394.2 155.8 141.6 32.2
1984 109.9 39.3 563.8 188.1 154.1 36.1
1985 580.3 216.9 75.4 28.4
1986 105.0 42.0 537.5 233.6 69.5 15.1
1987 125.4 62.0 614.9 192.3 120.5 41.7
1988 6.0 0.6 123.1 63.4 752.8 271.7 126.5 27.8
1989 5.5 0.5 122.9 48.2 1021.6 273.0 136.7 18.7
1990 5.9 0.6 131.9 56.5 886.8 232.1 81.4 14.7
1991 7.4 0.7 124.1 49.8 868.2 225.0 126.3 26.0
1992 7.7 0.7 497.4 375.8 101.3 46.6 822.8 360.9 1127.3 360.9 63.4 24.4
1993 7.1 0.6 666.7 359.0 145.6 68.7 667.8 386.5 875.9 305.8 92.8 23.8
1994 7.8 0.6 483.2 311.7 141.3 68.9 698.0 399.9 1320.1 426.5 118.9 17.5
1995 8.7 0.9 589.7 368.5 123.5 54.5 718.7 515.3 912.2 319.4 142.9 42.0
1996 8.3 0.6 843.7d 536.7 142.8 60.1 643.0 338.8 1062.4 314.8 132.3 38.9
1997 8.1 0.6 824.3 511.3 107.5 51.9 779.4 445.8 953.0 407.4 128.3 26.1
1998 9.2 1.1 706.8 353.9 89.1 44.8 945.5 445.3 739.6 368.5 155.7 43.4
1999 8.3 0.8 851.0 560.1 101.0 50.2 649.5 419.5 716.5 316.4 251.2e 81.1
2000 7.8 0.6 562.4 347.6 745.5 345.4 815.3 318.1 178.8 54.3
2001 7.4 0.6 413.5 302.2 26.5e 11.8 539.7 294.8 761.3 320.6 225.3 69.2
2002 8.6 0.5 392.0 265.3 732.5 290.7 1224.1 366.6 141.8 50.6
a Species composition for the total duck estimate varies by region.
b Index to waterfowl use in prime